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> March 19-20 MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk level: Day 2 Marginal; Forecasts and OBS
RobB
post Mar 20 2017, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Mar 20 2017, 11:52 AM) *
New storms popping in NE IL now.



I was just looking at that..


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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 11:23 AM
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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Illinois into Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201619Z - 201845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will develop southeastward out of
northern Illinois and into Indiana today, with marginally severe
hail expected.

DISCUSSION...Warm advection out of the southwest persists across the
region, immediately in the wake of earlier storms which have
reinforced the stable surface with cool air. Storms have already
re-formed over northeastern Illinois, possibly associated with a
weak disturbance aloft preceding the larger-scale height falls to
the north.

Modest theta-e advection around 850 mb will persist today, aiding a
broad area of weak lift, with steep midlevel lapse rates and
increasing shear in the cloud-bearing layer helping to maintain this
cluster of cells as it continues southeastward across Indiana and
perhaps western Ohio later today. Given the cold surface air, severe
wind is not expected to be a threat.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/20/2017
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radarjunkie
post Mar 20 2017, 11:23 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Mar 20 2017, 10:50 AM) *
Is that sleet or hail?


Hail from the storms. I went about 2 miles west and there was none.
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 11:34 AM
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2nd round of severe T'storms over same area as this morning

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Juniorrr
post Mar 20 2017, 11:48 AM
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Had some upper 30 degree thunder-rains this morning. Round 2 is developing nicely in IL. See if it forms into a MCS.


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 12:15 PM
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Thunderstorms be darned, 66 degrees at noon and still a few hours of heating left. Biggest snow of the season a week ago today, could not ask for a better intro to Spring.

Plenty more chances for a thunderstorm before Summer complaints begin. I'll take this and be happy

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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 12:16 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 20 2017, 07:46 AM) *
Quite a bit further south than the HRRR had depicted.

[attachment=324210:Screensh...06_43_07.png]

Wow that's a lot of precip


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 8/17/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 12:26 PM
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2" hail report just came in
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 8/17/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 12:37 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 20 2017, 12:16 PM) *
Wow that's a lot of precip

Yeah, nary a drop here.

Not as far south but still souh. Didn't realize there was redevelopment to occur, so this would be a better comparison to thise HRRR graphics

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snowlover2
post Mar 20 2017, 12:48 PM
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50 degrees and lots of sun. Warming up nicely ahead of the next storms.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 01:12 PM
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Impressive elevated convection given surface temps across the region are only in the upper 40's low 50's! virtually no surface cape just mu cape is sitting around and some nice shear will do the trick. Surprised to see reports of hail that big, but given the freezing level is not too far off from the base of the storm which seems to be at about 6,000ft AGL or so and freezing level is at 12,000ft and tops hitting 35-40,000 feet that is pretty cool to see.

The producer seems to be a low to mid level vort that has an associated, albeit weak, SLP connecting from a boundary coming from a storm in the hudson bay region.

Kind of reminds of a summer time pattern for sure.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
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Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ValpoSnow
post Mar 20 2017, 01:25 PM
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The thunder last night in Chicago was out of control loud.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 01:26 PM
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2.75" hail now from this supercell. The surface temp is ~50 degrees!
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 8/17/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 01:31 PM
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We've exceeded todays forecast high by 3 degrees already

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ValpoSnow
post Mar 20 2017, 01:43 PM
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Insane 40 degree difference in temps from W KY to E KY.
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Juniorrr
post Mar 20 2017, 01:48 PM
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Lots of lightning with the whole cluster. Hearing thunders IMBY.

Looks like we'll get those clustery thundery rains smile.gif


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 02:47 PM
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Gotta love NW flow events. Nice taste of summer, even if it doesn't feel like it outside.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 8 (Last: 8/17/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 13 (Last: 8/17/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Juniorrr
post Mar 20 2017, 02:57 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:47 PM) *
Gotta love NW flow events. Nice taste of summer, even if it doesn't feel like it outside.

2-3x MCS in the last couple of days in March. I'd imagine in spring/summer this would be a nasty event.

Meanwhile our line is officially MCS imo, has a nice cold pool and comma head forming with a bowing out happening now... And as the usual flanking"super-cells".

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Mar 20 2017, 03:02 PM


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
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BrenK10
post Mar 20 2017, 03:02 PM
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love this when storms hit in morning and then in the evening.
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snowlover2
post Mar 20 2017, 03:36 PM
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From: Dayton,OH
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Getting some pretty good thunder now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:5

# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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