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> March 26-28 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:34 PM
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1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?


Attached Image


Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 18 2017, 05:35 PM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:37 PM
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Uh oh - banning coming....
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Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 05:39 PM
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This run does not, in itself, verify the Euro 12z. But it is very different than its own past couple runs (and ensembles I may add - the ensembles have IMHO, stunk this year - seem less trustworthy than past winters) and has some of the same noteworthy features.

Verbatim, the solution will not be the same.

But at this lead time, we never focus on the details. The larger picture has gained some "support" of a worrisome time period for OMW to make his last stand. (?)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 18 2017, 05:43 PM
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fordfisherman
post Mar 18 2017, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 06:34 PM) *
1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?


Attached Image


Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/



Forecast the high, forecast the storm...???
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PoconoSnow
post Mar 18 2017, 05:55 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 18 2017, 05:25 PM) *
Remember that huge over running event that had only a min pressure of like 1007 but dropped 30 inches in places

Reminds me a little of that
. Appears to be a very unique setup that may unbalance fairly easily.



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 06:34 PM) *
1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?


Attached Image


Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/



--------------------
“The strength and weakness of physicists is that we believe in what we can measure. And if we can’t measure it, then we say it probably doesn’t exist.” – Michio Kaku
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PoconoSnow
post Mar 18 2017, 05:59 PM
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rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Mar 18 2017, 06:00 PM


--------------------
“The strength and weakness of physicists is that we believe in what we can measure. And if we can’t measure it, then we say it probably doesn’t exist.” – Michio Kaku
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Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 06:01 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 18 2017, 06:59 PM) *


rolleyes.gif

Oh no you did-nt! ohmy.gif

First year I bought a Bota. wink.gif

(permanent ban coming)

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 18 2017, 06:03 PM
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PoconoSnow
post Mar 18 2017, 06:02 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 07:01 PM) *
Oh no you did-nt! ohmy.gif

(permanent ban coming)


Had to

laugh.gif

*Bans self

Totally worth it


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“The strength and weakness of physicists is that we believe in what we can measure. And if we can’t measure it, then we say it probably doesn’t exist.” – Michio Kaku
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 18 2017, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 18 2017, 06:59 PM) *


rolleyes.gif

I have never seen so much snow and QPF for such a high MB low pressure
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Undertakerson
post Mar 18 2017, 06:24 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 07:21 PM) *
I have never seen so much snow and QPF for such a high MB low pressure

Neither had any of the forecasters. They were PP'ng the event right up near it was unfolding.

Last minute adjustments took me from 2-4" forecast, to 6-10, then on up from there. IIRC, 18-21 fell in my zone before all was said and done.

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 18 2017, 07:23 PM
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Euro has trended south several run in a row, ggem was about 60 miles to far north..(12+)


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 18 2017, 07:28 PM
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Kbuf

Model guidance is in good agreement through Thursday, but diverges
after this. Low pressure will develop across the Midwestern States
on Friday but the track of this low is uncertain. There is agreement
than a warm front associated with this low will lift toward the
region late Thursday night and Friday, but the 12Z GFS tracks the
low across the Great Lakes and lifts this front through the region.
The ECMWF cuts this low off and stalls the front to our south with
the GGEM somewhere between these solutions. This makes temperature
(and precipitation type) forecasts very difficult for Friday and
Saturday. It appears temperatures will either be near normal or much
above normal depending on the position of the front. Expect
temperatures to rise well into the 50s (if not 60s) on the warm side
of the boundary.

Despite the differing model guidance, it appears it will a wet
pattern either way with precipitation likely for much of the Friday
and Saturday timeframe. This should mainly fall as rain, however
snow is still possible across the North Country depending on the
position of the front. Rainfall amounts could be moderate with an
inch not out of the question. This combined with snow melt may pose
a risk for minor flooding, but at this time this remains a small
risk given uncertainty in the track of the low.


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 18 2017, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 18 2017, 08:23 PM) *
Euro has trended south several run in a row, ggem was about 60 miles to far north..(12+)

The timing was perfect on the euro. The low and high met at the right time at the right spots.
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phillyfan
post Mar 18 2017, 07:31 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 06:34 PM) *
1043mb - cad-ish, over running event - combo?


Attached Image


Dare I mention the storm that did that historically? (hint, not a recent storm)

Next frame SHP is up to 1044mb as precip hits the PA/NJ region. SLP still down near Big Bend of Fl/

That is quite a bit different then the 12z gfs run. wink.gif wink.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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phillyfan
post Mar 18 2017, 07:32 PM
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OT: But April 3rd (hour384 though)


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 18 2017, 07:36 PM
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I would personally take a blend of the ggem/euro..lol

Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 18 2017, 08:10 PM
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Kalb

QUOTE
The GFS is
indicating the warm front will pass through allowing for a mild air
mass to build in for Saturday, while the parent storm tracks through
the eastern Great Lakes. However, the ECMWF is now showing a strong
1040 mb high migrating southeastward across Ontario/Quebec during
this time, which would result in the warm front possibly stalling
just to our south with the potential for waves of wintry precip
moving through. The position/strength of the high will have a large
influence in determining where the front sets up, so this is a very
low confidence for next weekend including temperatures and precip
types/amounts.


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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joeman
post Mar 18 2017, 08:12 PM
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western ct

SAT 3/25

53° /36°
Rain and drizzle possible
Hist. Avg.
50°/28°


SUN 3/26

46° /28°
Chance of a little a.m. rain
Hist. Avg.
50°/28°


MON 3/27

47° /26°
Mostly sunny
Hist. Avg.
51°/29°


TUE 3/28

48° /30°
Rain and drizzle possible


--------------------
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 18 2017, 08:28 PM
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NWS going with low50s here as well but that will change depending on the track of said system, with that being said I'm sure they will use the elevation card lol


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Storms R us
post Mar 18 2017, 09:12 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 18 2017, 08:32 PM) *
OT: But April 3rd (hour384 though)



Fantasy with a big F wink.gif
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