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> March 26-28 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 18 2017, 09:13 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 18 2017, 09:28 PM) *
NWS going with low50s here as well but that will change depending on the track of said system, with that being said I'm sure they will use the elevation card lol


Mike, do you actually "laugh out loud" after each post?

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Mar 18 2017, 09:14 PM


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Blue Ridge Bouncer
A gust of the past through the door and I'm back in my place.

Cascade, MD
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Storms R us
post Mar 18 2017, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 18 2017, 08:28 PM) *
Kbuf

Model guidance is in good agreement through Thursday, but diverges
after this. Low pressure will develop across the Midwestern States
on Friday but the track of this low is uncertain. There is agreement
than a warm front associated with this low will lift toward the
region late Thursday night and Friday, but the 12Z GFS tracks the
low across the Great Lakes and lifts this front through the region.
The ECMWF cuts this low off and stalls the front to our south with
the GGEM somewhere between these solutions. This makes temperature
(and precipitation type) forecasts very difficult for Friday and
Saturday. It appears temperatures will either be near normal or much
above normal depending on the position of the front. Expect
temperatures to rise well into the 50s (if not 60s) on the warm side
of the boundary.

Despite the differing model guidance, it appears it will a wet
pattern either way with precipitation likely for much of the Friday
and Saturday timeframe. This should mainly fall as rain, however
snow is still possible across the North Country depending on the
position of the front. Rainfall amounts could be moderate with an
inch not out of the question.
This combined with snow melt may pose
a risk for minor flooding,
but at this time this remains a small
risk given uncertainty in the track of the low.


Bold is what I've been seeing on the models CMC/GFS and hope what flooding that does happen is minimized. All that snow up north I'd like to see a slow melt by the sun.
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SnowMan11
post Mar 18 2017, 09:15 PM
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Euro control has snow from SNJ northward and crushes SNE

EPS has the high further south and stronger on this run compared to 0z with the low also further south.


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 18 2017, 09:28 PM
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Im willing to bet a good sum of money the euro op shows nothing similar to the 12z lol

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Mar 18 2017, 09:34 PM
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USCG AST
post Mar 18 2017, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 10:15 PM) *
Euro control has snow from SNJ northward and crushes SNE

EPS has the high further south and stronger on this run compared to 0z with the low also further south.

That is my thinking here. If the PV pushes further south, the tri state area is obliterated.


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"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill
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phillyfan
post Mar 18 2017, 09:45 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 10:28 PM) *
Im willing to bet a good sum of money the euro op shows nothing similar to the 12z lol

You can be the one who stays up for it, not a chance I will. laugh.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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Storms R us
post Mar 18 2017, 09:46 PM
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Mar 18 2017, 10:40 PM) *
That is my thinking here. If the PV pushes further south, the tri state area is obliterated.



That would be great for you all but you need more model guidance besides the EURO.
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 18 2017, 09:48 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 18 2017, 10:28 PM) *
Im willing to bet a good sum of money the euro op shows nothing similar to the 12z lol

That is a good possibility. It did the same thing for the big storm aka Stella. It showed a monster storm at 0Z on March 4th. It then lost it for awhile before it came back to it again. EURO used to be good at sniffing out big storms in the long range before it was "tweaked". Maybe its on a roll again and it sniffed another big one out 8 to 9 days from now.

This post has been edited by paletitsnow63: Mar 18 2017, 09:49 PM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 18 2017, 10:29 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 18 2017, 10:13 PM) *
Mike, do you actually "laugh out loud" after each post?

No, I chuckle inside...


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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USCG AST
post Mar 18 2017, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 18 2017, 10:46 PM) *
That would be great for you all but you need more model guidance besides the EURO.

All globals are hinting a bit at the potential. I just said my thinking, not a forecast. rolleyes.gif


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"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill
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phillyfan
post Mar 18 2017, 11:39 PM
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Nothing to really show on the 0z GFS run.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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shane o mac
post Mar 18 2017, 11:42 PM
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This looks rather interesting , alot of changes incoming the next few days ..
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 19 2017, 12:07 AM
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Ggem is much warmer then 12z, even northern NY state sees very little snow..It's a squeeze play between the Bermuda high and HP north of Quebec..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 19 2017, 12:10 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 19 2017, 01:07 AM) *
Ggem is much warmer then 12z, even northern NY state sees very little snow..It's a squeeze play between the Bermuda high and HP north of Quebec..


Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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jdrenken
post Mar 19 2017, 01:00 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 09:15 PM) *
Euro control has snow from SNJ northward and crushes SNE

EPS has the high further south and stronger on this run compared to 0z with the low also further south.


To be fair...it is more sw. Again...blanket statements like this above help nobody without details or pictures. Seems like a broken record...

Click to animate
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


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jdrenken
post Mar 19 2017, 01:09 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 18 2017, 04:57 PM) *
USCGAT - I don't think your title meets guideline specs. Just thought you might like to know.

Should be more like

March26-28, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm
Long Range Cogitation D7-10

Something more like that.


Yes...that does help. Not like it's pinned on how to create topics or nothin...


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 19 2017, 02:03 AM
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Euro is a no go for snow lovers , LP up into Maine, trailing cold front..Euro says enjoy some 60s and 70s..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Storms R us
post Mar 19 2017, 05:08 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 19 2017, 03:03 AM) *
Euro is a no go for snow lovers , LP up into Maine, trailing cold front..Euro says enjoy some 60s and 70s..



If you look at the GFS/CMC you can see some rain makers still there, even that long range thing Phillyfan mentioned April 3rd is not there but that is long range and off topic, just mentioning.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Mar 19 2017, 05:09 AM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 05:27 AM
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6z does show a coastal reflection with wintery precip for the interior of N MidAtl/NE

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Undertakerson
post Mar 19 2017, 05:40 AM
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SO - we can't write off this potential. Not yet anyway

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 19 2017, 05:41 AM
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