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My Content
21 Jun 2017
Appears likely the OV will see heavy rain and maybe flooding from a combo of a front moving in from the north and Cindy coming up from the south.

ILN disco.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1007 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

During the day Thursday Tropical Storm Cindy will head north
through LA/ TX. A shortwave will also push north up ahead of the
tropical storm and around the subtropical ridge. Thursday
morning into early Thursday afternoon will probably remain dry
out ahead of the shortwave. Later Thursday afternoon forecast
soundings start to destabilize with PWATs slowly ticking up. By
Thursday evening ML CAPE values on the GFS approach ~500 J/kg
with PWATs almost up to 2.00" (near or at the daily PWAT max).

The main concern will be the late Thursday through Friday
morning period as a frontogenetic band moves out ahead of Cindy
and interacting with high PWATs. Overall the pattern looks to
have similarities to a predecessor rainfall event (PRE). As
Friday morning evolves a potent upper level longwave trough axis
approaches from the west with the ILN forecast area moving into
a RRQ. The shortwave trough axis also extends from the
Minnesota/ Canada border towards the Gulf Coast with ILN being
east of the axis. A cold front will extend from northern
Michigan southwest towards northern Illinois. The CMC has an
axis of heavy rainfall extending from southern Illinois towards
our northwestern zones. The ECMWF has this axis across our
central zones. The GFS and NAM have this heavy rain axis across
our southern zones. Given the signals above have added the
mention of heavy rain into the forecast. Also have extended the
heavy rain mention to all zones of the HWO given the
uncertainty. This uncertainty is also highlighted in SREF plume
runs which shows a wide range of possible solutions of eventual
rainfall totals (or placement of the eventual band).


Tropical moisture advects northeast ahead of the remnants of T.S.
Cindy with precipitable water values increasing to 2.3 inches over
the Ohio Valley. This tropical moisture will interact with a
southward advancing frontal boundary to produce widespread showers
and thunderstorms and the potential for heavy rain over ILN/s
southern counties. Due to this moisture rich environment with
favorable frontogenetic forcing will mention heavy rain in the
weather grids. Fridays temperatures will be a little below normal
with highs around 80s.

Model solutions in a little better agreement with main remnants of
T.S. Cindy staying south of ILN/s area and pcpn ending early
Saturday. Will diminish pops from northwest to south late Friday
night into Saturday. Temperatures to remain a little below normal
with Fridays highs ranging from the upper 70s northwest to the lower
80s southeast.

Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes with westerly flow
over the Ohio Valley. ECMWF solution sharper with this trof and
therefore offers a wetter solution. Will follow a blend of GFS and
Canadian, limiting any mention of pcpn to a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm to the far north Sunday afternoon. Cool
temperatures to continue with Sundays highs in the mid/upper 70s.

With the mid level trof lagging across the Great Lakes can not rule
out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday. Will limit
these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be about 10
degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and middle

Surface high pressure to build across the Ohio Valley keeping the
region dry and cool Tuesday. Expect Tuesdays highs in the mid/upper

Return moisture on the back side of surface high pressure will lead
to a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon across the north.
Expect Wednesdays highs to be around 80.
24 May 2017
Probably should have been started yesterday seeing a couple tornado reports in IL but a marginal area for wind/tornadoes on new day 1 for SE IN/S half of OH.

Attached Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



Severe storms will be possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across
a large portion of the Southeast. More isolated severe storms will
be possible as far north as the mid-Ohio Valley.

As an upper trough crossing southwest Canada and the Pacific
Northwest digs southeast across the northern Intermountain region
with time, a second/mobile trough will across the eastern U.S.
through the period. A short-wave trough -- embedded within cyclonic
westerly flow around the base of the broader eastern trough -- will
rotate across the Southeast and mid-South region through the
afternoon and evening.

As the aforementioned short-wave trough advances, surface
cyclogenesis is expected over the eastern Tennessee/eastern Kentucky
vicinity during the day, and then shifting north into southwest Ohio
overnight. As this occurs, a trailing cold front will sweep across
the central Gulf Coast region early and into Georgia and eventually
the Carolinas through the afternoon and evening, while a warm front
lifts north to the North Carolina/Virginia border and lingers there
through the evening. These fronts -- and the evolving warm sector
-- will support multiple episodes of widespread showers and
thunderstorms through much of the period.

...The mid-South and mid-Ohio Valley...
While questions exist regarding degree of destabilization across
this region, backed low-level flow near and northeast of the
developing surface low expected to shift north across the area
through the day will support favorable veering of the lower
tropospheric wind field with height. If ample destabilization can
occur, risk for a few stronger storms -- capable of producing
damaging winds along with a tornado or two -- would likely evolve.
Greatest potential for ample CAPE to evolve along with somewhat
stronger deep-layer flow seems to exist across eastern TN/eastern KY
and eastward across the mountains, but will introduce
low-probability risk farther north (into parts of OH/IN) and west
(into central KY and middle TN) given latest model trends.

..Goss.. 05/24/2017
11 May 2017
Next severe threat for the area. SPC has a day 6 area outlined but mentions possibilities on day 5 and 7-8.
Attached Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains...

Severe probabilities will increase early to middle of next week. The
western trough, centered from near the Pacific Northwest coast to
just offshore the southern CA coast will pivot east toward the Great
Basin by Monday. Some isolated severe threat may develop in the
vicinity of the TX Panhandle. However, uncertainty is still fairly
high with guidance varying in timing and placement of any ejecting
shortwave impulse.

...Day 6/Tue - Southern/Central Plains...

Guidance has become more consistent in ejecting a stronger shortwave
impulse across the southern Rockies and into the Plains on Tuesday.
Rich boundary layer moisture will have had enough time to surge
northward ahead of this feature while a lee low deepens over the
northern/central Plains. Confidence in an organized severe threat
developing in the vicinity of a dryline across parts of central KS
into western/central OK and perhaps the eastern TX Panhandle into
north TX has increased enough to introduce 15% probabilities. The
severe threat may extend further north into the mid-MO Valley ahead
of the eastward progressing surface cyclone, but confidence in
quality moisture that far north is low at this time.

...Day 7-8/Wed-Thu - Southern/Central Plains to the South-Central
States and the Upper Great Lakes...

The severe threat may shift east into parts of the Ozarks/ArkLaTex
on Wednesday. Guidance suggest another subtle shortwave impulse may
eject northeast across central TX into AR, but disparities in timing
and intensity of this feature will preclude introduction of
probabilities at this time. Additionally, a threat may extend
eastward across parts of the upper Great Lakes ahead of the
approaching surface low. This is dependent again on quality of
moisture, and what may evolve upstream on Day 6/Tuesday.

Likewise, a severe threat may continue across parts of the southern
and central Plains into the south-central states on Thursday. Larger
height falls will push eastward as the western trough begins an
eastward push, and strong southwesterly flow will overspread much of
the region. However, details in timing and location vary and
confidence is too low to introduce probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/11/2017
2 Apr 2017
SPC has a day 4 area highlighted for Wednesday from the southern half of Ohio and south. Saying higher probs are probable in later outlooks.

Attached Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across
parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast
region this coming Wednesday into Thursday...

Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into
the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift
eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend. Models
suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad
deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the
Northeast. Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of
the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone,
initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of
Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center
across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid
Atlantic Coast region by Thursday. Associated destabilization in
the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and
strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support
considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving
storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts
and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a
risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe
probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time

The pattern is expected to remain progressive, but may trend more
zonal next weekend into early next week, with short wave development
and associated severe weather potential becoming more unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/02/2017
18 Mar 2017
So not sure if anyone else noticed but it seems both NAM and GFS and to a lesser extent the GGEM (and maybe Euro but not sure) are showing a system track across the TN valley with it getting cold enough on the northern edge for accumulating snow.

18z GFS
Attached Image

18z NAM
Attached Image
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