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snowlover2
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18 Aug 2017
Next threat of Severe weather looks to start Sunday.
Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and
eastern South Dakota late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This
may include the eventual formation of a large thunderstorm cluster
by late Sunday evening, accompanied by a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that the stronger mid-latitude westerlies may
continue a northward retreat into areas mostly north of the
Canadian/U.S. border during this period. At lower latitudes,
western Atlantic subtropical ridging is forecast to continue
building westward, and expanding northward, across the Southeast,
into the southern Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Farther west, broad weak troughing with numerous embedded
perturbations may continue to evolve west of the California coast
into the southern Great Basin and Rockies.

On the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies, a plume of
warm elevated mixed layer air may nose east of the Wyoming/Colorado
Rockies into the mid Missouri Valley. At the same time, modest
southerly low-level flow will contribute to northward moisture
transport across the Plains, into the vicinity of a cold front
advancing southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest,
before stalling. This latter feature is expected to accompany a
short wave trough crossing the Canadian prairies, before turning
northeastward across northwestern Ontario by early Sunday. Another
significant short wave impulse may dig east southeast of the
Canadian Rockies through the Canadian prairies by late Sunday night.

...Parts of northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...
There remains considerable spread among the various models
concerning pertinent features which could impact convective
development Sunday afternoon and evening. This includes the
positioning of the zone of potentially strong differential surface
heating and plume of elevated mixed layer air, and possible subtle
perturbations near the southern-most fringe of the mid-latitude
westerlies.

In general, though, the development of large CAPE, with continued
moistening beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates, in the presence
of favorable shear for organized storm development (largely due to
pronounced veering with height), appears likely to contribute to an
environment potentially supportive of severe storm development. At
the present time, this seems most probable across parts of
central/eastern South Dakota Sunday evening, where/when forcing for
ascent may become enhanced near the nose of a modest strengthening
southerly 850 mb jet. A transition from isolated supercell
development to a consolidating/upscale growing mesoscale convective
system appears possible.

..Kerr.. 08/18/2017
24 Jul 2017
Next rounds of severe weather start today in the northern plains where a marginal risk in ND is.

Slight risk is introduced on day 2 in northern plains/upper MW.
Attached Image


Day 3 slight risk for GL/OV areas.
Attached Image


Day 4 could bring severe to OV.
QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good large-scale
agreement through roughly Day 6/Saturday, in depicting fairly
substantial amplification of the upper flow field. The eventual
result will be troughing/cyclonic flow covering the eastern half of
the U.S. and a large ridge over the West.

Prior to establishment of the longer-wavelength eastern trough, an
initial short-wave trough will advance steadily across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast day 4/Thursday, accompanied by a
similarly progressing surface cold front. While the front should
focus a zone of showers and storms, questions regarding overall
degree of warm-sector instability exist. While the Ohio vicinity
may be a focus for somewhat greater severe risk given hints of ample
CAPE/shear, confidence is not great enough to add an areal highlight
at this time.


An isolated severe risk may also evolve across portions of the high
Plains region day 4, as a weak disturbance cresting the ridge may
enhance convective potential within a low-level upslope flow regime.
However,instability appears likely to remain limited across this
area as well.

As the front moves offshore day 5, and ridging amplifies days 5-6
over the west, the High Plains would likely remain the primary focus
for isolated severe storms. However, substantial/organized severe
risk is not evident at this time.

..Goss.. 07/24/2017
8 Jul 2017
Looks like there will be several shots for MCS's/severe through much of the next week.

Day 2
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2017

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday primarily across parts of
the upper Mississippi Valley and vicinity. A few strong storms with
downburst winds are expected across the Carolinas and Georgia
coastal plain, and across portions of the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains.

...Synopsis...

Blocking synoptic pattern will persist Sunday with an upper ridge
centered over the Great Basin and a downstream trough over the
eastern states. Several smaller-scale vorticity maxima will move
through the periphery of the upper ridge and the eastern U.S. upper
trough, providing foci for more active corridors of thunderstorms.

At the surface a quasi-stationary front will reside from the coastal
Carolinas through the Gulf Coast states then northwestward as a warm
front into the central Plains. Farther north another front is
expected to evolve over the Northern Plains into the upper MS valley
region. A weak lee trough will persist over the High Plains.

...Upper MS Valley region...

Model consensus is that a shortwave trough currently cresting upper
ridge and moving through southern Alberta will reach the upper MS
valley early Sunday, fostering the development of showers and
storms. This activity is not expected to be severe and will
subsequently shift eastward through northern MN and WI during the
day. The boundary layer will gradually moisten Sunday in the
presence of southerly low-level winds with near-surface dewpoints
climbing into the 60s F beneath eastern fringe of steeper mid-level
lapse rates. These processes should result in moderate instability
with diabatic heating boosting MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg during the
afternoon. A capping inversion and weak forcing in wake of early
shortwave trough may delay more robust thunderstorm development
until later in the afternoon when a weaker impulse is forecast to
drop southeast within the northwesterly flow regime during peak
heating. Thunderstorms might initially develop in vicinity of
boundary across MN and subsequently spread southeastward. Initial
storms will likely be discrete with sufficient vertical shear
supportive of a few supercells. Additional storms may develop
farther south overnight within warm advection regime, possibly
evolving into an MCS as the low-level jet undergoes a modest
increase. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats.

...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains...

Deep inverted-V boundary layers and marginal instability will exist
over the northern Rockies. Weak impulses riding the crest of the
upper ridge and orographic forcing should foster development of
thunderstorms during the afternoon. The storms will pose a risk for
isolated downburst winds through early evening.



..Dial.. 07/08/2017
4 Jul 2017
Looks like on and off chances for severe weather across the region especially Thursday where an enhanced area has been introduced in the upper MW.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue Jul 04 2017

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with a threat for mainly large hail and damaging wind
are expected from a portion of the upper Mississippi Valley into the
Great Lakes Thursday. Other storms with a few strong wind gusts are
possible from the Tennessee Valley to North Carolina and Virginia
Thursday afternoon.

...Synopsis...

The synoptic pattern Thursday will remain dominated by an upper
ridge over the Rockies and a downstream trough over the eastern
states. A significant shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast
into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes region. A much weaker upper
trough embedded within weak flow aloft will drift slowly eastward
through the TN valley and southern Appalachians. A cold front
associated with the northern-stream shortwave trough will move
southeast through the Northern Plains, upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes. By 12Z Friday this boundary should extend from a surface low
over southeast Quebec southwestward into the Central Plains. A weak
quasi-stationary front will persist from VA into KY.

...Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes...

Richer low-level moisture with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints
resulting from both evapotranspiration and advection will reside in
pre-frontal warm sector. Meanwhile plume of steeper mid-level lapse
rates will advect into this region, contributing to moderate to
strong instability as the boundary layer destabilizes during the day
with MLCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Winds aloft will strengthen with
amplification of the northern stream trough. Southwesterly low-level
winds veering to west and northwesterly with height will further
augment vertical shear with 0-6 km magnitudes of 40-50 kt.
Destabilization and forcing for ascent accompanying the
southeast-advancing shortwave trough should contribute to
thunderstorm initiation by early afternoon over the upper MS valley
region, and this activity will subsequently develop southeastward
into the evening and overnight. Organized storms including
supercells and bowing line segments are likely with large hail and
damaging wind the primary threats.

...Tennessee Valley area through Virginia and North Carolina...

The atmosphere will once again become moderately unstable in this
region, and storms are expected to develop along and south of the
quasistationary front and in association with the shortwave trough.
Wind profiles will support multicells with a few strong wind gusts
possible during the afternoon and early evening.

..Dial.. 07/04/2017
24 Jun 2017
SPC has a day 4 area outlined in the northern plains and says severe could happen beyond that.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On D4/Tue, shortwave ridging will move quickly eastward across the
northern Plains with a 30-40 kt midlevel speed max moving into the
area by late in the day. High pressure will remain centered over the
mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys, with southerly flow across the
plains bringing near 60 dewpoints northward into the Dakotas ahead
of a surface low. MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is expected, with
scattered storms by late afternoon from the central Dakotas into
Nebraska. Given the progressive upper trough and an increasing
low-level jet, storms are expected to persist at least through
evening, with hail and wind possible.

By early D5/Wed, the upper disturbance will be located near the
Mississippi river, and will continue eastward across the upper Great
Lakes. By this time, the surface low will be over western Ontario,
but moisture will have increased across the Minnesota, Wisconsin and
Iowa with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Given that storms will be
ongoing, predictability is too low to denote a D5 area, although an
eventual Slight Risk appears possible in later outlooks.

From D6/Thu and beyond, as broad belt of modest zonal flow aloft
will remain across the northern tiers of states, and large,
broadening moist sector will develop south of the synoptic front
which will extend roughly from northern Nebraska eastward into New
England. While sporadic clusters of storms are possible along this
general zone, predictability will remain low.

..Jewell.. 06/24/2017
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8 Mar 2017 - 23:33


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23 Feb 2017 - 19:59

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coach
like your posts!
15 Jan 2010 - 13:53

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