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WeatherMonger
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Springfield, IL
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24 May 2018
Local forecast has 10 straight days of temps in the 90's May is bringing June in with a vengeance. If any regions need removed let me know, just did a general regional thread as to not clog up severe threads with temps.

Luckily have a 4 day weekend starting tomorrow.
7 Apr 2018
SPC mentioning the possibility/probability of severe weather during this time period. Delineation possible in subsequent outlooks. Will add regions if/when necessary.

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sat Apr 07 2018

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Through the middle of the upcoming week, persistent northwesterly
flow aloft over the central US will generally maintain broad surface
high pressure east of the Rockies, precluding substantive inland
destabilization. A few storms may develop across northern Florida on
D4/Tuesday, but unimpressive lapse rates and modest low/mid-level
wind fields should preclude widespread organized severe weather.

By mid-week, a western US ridge is forecast to flatten, and
increasing westerly flow across the Rockies will yield a deepening
lee trough. The resultant surface pressure gradient will enhance
return flow across the southern/central Plains during the latter
half of the week. Meanwhile, medium-range guidance indicates an
energetic trough and strong west/southwesterly mid-level jet maximum
will approach the Plains late D6/Thu into D7/Fri. As it does so,
strengthening southwesterly flow is forecast to spread steepening
mid-level lapse rates across much of the region.

While severe weather seems possible, if not probable, to occur
across parts of the Plains/Mississippi Valley by D7/Fri,
considerable spatial uncertainty remains, owing to several factors:

1) Notable timing/amplitude differences amongst model guidance with
regards to the main trough and associated closed cyclone that is
forecast to develop over the north-central US.
2) The potential for a relatively narrow warm/moist sector ahead of
a dry line -- the placement of which is difficult to determine at
this forecast range due to the timing/amplitude differences noted
above.
3) The possibility that only modest moisture return renders
convective inhibition too great for more organized open warm sector
development, reducing the areal coverage of potential severe
weather.

Considering these concerns, predictability too low is maintained for
D6/Thu-D8/Sat. Nonetheless, severe probabilities may be introduced
in upcoming forecast cycles.

..Picca.. 04/07/2018
4 Dec 2017
Figured why not

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across eastern
Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex region, northward across Missouri into
portions of the Upper Midwest, late this afternoon into tonight.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Severe weather categorical and probabilistic areas have been
expanded westward some to account for the current frontal position,
and some lingering uncertainty concerning exact timing of storm
initiation late this afternoon. The axis of strongest pre-frontal
surface heating currently extends northward near/east of
Bartlesville, OK through the Chillicothe, MO area, and seems likely
to provide the focus for strongest storm development through early
evening. Modest boundary layer destabilization is also ongoing
within a narrow pre-frontal corridor as far north as the deepening
surface low center, now near Minneapolis, and severe categorical/
probabilistic lines have been expanded northward through the Upper
Midwest to account for this.

..Kerr.. 12/04/2017
4 Sep 2017
Figured might as well start it amd jinx my chances


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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Sep 04 2017

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS...NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley region, perhaps as far southwest as southeast Kansas,
this afternoon and evening. Additional strong storms may impact the
higher terrain and lower deserts of central and southern Arizona.

...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Central
Plains...
An upper-level trough will dig quickly southeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley today. A broad belt of west to west-southwesterly
cyclonic flow will be in place ahead of the trough across much of
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward today across the central Great Lakes, upper to
mid Mississippi Valley and central Plains. A few thunderstorms
should be ongoing along the front this morning. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s
F by this afternoon. This combined with warming surface
temperatures should result in the development of moderate
instability. Moderate instability is expected to first develop in
the mid Mississippi Valley by late this morning and then spread
east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes
this afternoon. This will aid convective initiation of surface-based
thunderstorms along and just ahead of the front during the 20Z to
22Z timeframe beginning in southern Lower Michigan and far northern
Indiana. Thunderstorm coverage should expand quickly
west-southwestward along the front during the late afternoon. The
development of a linear MCS will be possible by early evening from
the Great Lakes west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

At mid-levels, a 70 to 80 kt jet max associated with the upper-level
trough will translate eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley.
This jet max is forecast to increase in strength as it approaches
the Slight and Enhanced risk areas. 0-6 km shear is forecast to
reach the 40 to 50 kt range along the front as convection organizes
late this afternoon. As a result, the combination of instability and
deep-layer shear will be favorable for severe thunderstorm
development. Although supercells will be possible early in the
event, the models suggest that linear development will be favored
due to low-level convergence and forced ascent along the front. This
will likely make wind damage the greatest severe weather hazard as a
line of storms moves southeastward across the region. An enhanced
risk for wind damage will be most likely from far eastern Illinois
northeastward across north-central Indiana into northwest Ohio, near
the southwestern section of a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet. Isolated
large hail may also develop with the more discrete rotating storms
that develop during the late afternoon, when instability is forecast
to be maximized. A marginal threat for hail and strong wind gusts
will be possible across southwestern Missouri and southeast Kansas
late this afternoon into this early evening.

...Arizona...
An area of high pressure will be in place today from the Four
Corners region northwestward into the Intermountain West.
Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate on the southern periphery of
the high in southern Arizona as instability develops this afternoon.
Forecast soundings at Phoenix for 00Z/Tuesday show instability
mainly in the mid-levels with super-adiabatic lapse rates from the
surface to 700 mb. This may be enough for a few strong wind gusts
especially if a cluster of multicells can get going just after peak
heating.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 09/04/2017
25 Jun 2017
Could really use sime rain around here, as long as it is not excessivelike the GFS shows

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