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> January 11-14 Plains/MW/OV Winter Storm OBS, OBS Thread For Latest Models & OBS
RobB
post Jan 11 2018, 11:04 AM
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FYI, I posted GFS snow map for the clipper in the appropriate thread.

Now back to this regularly scheduled program.
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ZumaRat
post Jan 11 2018, 11:04 AM
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Looking at the last 3 runs of the GFS, snow totals keep getting nudged upward ever so slightly.

Same goes for total storm QPF.
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ecanem
post Jan 11 2018, 11:13 AM
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ecanem
post Jan 11 2018, 11:14 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 11:16 AM
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CMC
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Kuotations
post Jan 11 2018, 11:17 AM
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Not too familiar with the RDPS model (Is it also called CMC?). What's it's overall reliability/strengths and weaknesses?
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jasonus03
post Jan 11 2018, 11:20 AM
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Telling you guys, I think this storm is going to be stronger than being shown. Whether it's sleet, freezing rain, or snow.....it'll probably end up surprising some people.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(Kuotations @ Jan 11 2018, 11:17 AM) *
Not too familiar with the RDPS model (Is it also called CMC?). What's it's overall reliability/strengths and weaknesses?

the RGEM/RDPS is a higher resolution of the CMC built for short range. Theres actually an even higher resolution Canadian model now called the HRDPS. It's somewhat reliable in the short range but has a tendency to over amp (like the NAM) at times
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 11:22 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:21 AM) *
the RGEM/RDPS is a higher resolution of the CMC built for short range. Theres actually an even higher resolution Canadian model now called the HRDPS. It's somewhat reliable in the short range but has a tendency to over amp (like the NAM) at times

the only kicker of the HRDPS is since its built for Canada the model only spans regions closer to the border

Its running now ill post as it does
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snowlover2
post Jan 11 2018, 11:30 AM
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Somehow knew we weren't done with this. Nice to still have hope.


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First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 11 2018, 11:31 AM
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Y'all are talking about winter weather... NWS Charleston (NWS office that covers for Athens) is talking about flooding. 1.5-2.5 inches of rain + frozen rivers + recently melted snowpack. Then we have the "flash freeze" post-front.

Fun.
QUOTE
We are becoming increasingly concerned for flooding overnight
tonight across the West Virginia Lowlands. Good upper level
divergence coupled with impressive llvl moisture advection and a
developing ssw to nne deformation band, will allow moderate
rain to quick develop this evening and continue overnight with
training a distinct possibility. The near term and global models
are rather consistent on where this axis sets up, with varying
QPF amounts within this narrow axis range from 1.5 inches to
2.5 inches (juiced up NAM). With ice still in the rivers and a
ground that is unable to soak up any rain...there is concern for
flooding issues and thus a watch is being strongly considered.
We want to see the 12Z GFS before any final decisions are made.


Here's the heavy rain banding they're talking about. Hope it moves west a little bit.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 11 2018, 11:32 AM


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
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Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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ingyball
post Jan 11 2018, 11:34 AM
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CMC does give some hope, we'll have to see what the Euro shows.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 11 2018, 11:35 AM
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Flood watch issued. Sweet.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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TheReflex
post Jan 11 2018, 11:36 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:31 AM) *
Y'all are talking about winter weather... NWS Charleston (NWS office that covers for Athens) is talking about flooding. 1.5-2.5 inches of rain + frozen rivers + recently melted snowpack. Then we have the "flash freeze" post-front.

Fun.
Here's the heavy rain banding they're talking about. Hope it moves west a little bit.


Went from snow last night to flooding

Every little wiggle of the storm changes things

Knew last night that there would still be some wiggling to be done

Hope you guys to our west get your snow and get a big one , may as well be some happy posters in here
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TheReflex
post Jan 11 2018, 11:37 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:35 AM) *
Flood watch issued. Sweet.



Im feeling your pain
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bigben89
post Jan 11 2018, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(ecanem @ Jan 11 2018, 11:13 AM) *


This needs to go SE about 60 miles... C'mon man!


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January 22-23, 2016 Snow Storm - 20 inches
February 8-9, 2017 DKBIII Snow - 7 inches
December 30, 2017 Clipper Snow - 6 inches
January 12-13, 2018 Changeover Snow - 3 inches
January 16, 2018 All Day "Cold Front" Snow - 5 inches
January 30, 2018 Snow Event - 3 inches
February 1-2, 2018 - Rain to Snow Event - 1 inch
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 11 2018, 11:38 AM
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QUOTE(TheReflex @ Jan 11 2018, 11:36 AM) *
Went from snow last night to flooding

Every little wiggle of the storm changes things

Knew last night that there would still be some wiggling to be done

Hope you guys to our west get your snow and get a big one , may as well be some happy posters in here

I'll be happy with this storm. I like anomalous weather. With this solution I get warmth, then flooding, a few inches of snow, and then the flash freeze.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post Jan 11 2018, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(jasonus03 @ Jan 11 2018, 10:20 AM) *
Telling you guys, I think this storm is going to be stronger than being shown. Whether it's sleet, freezing rain, or snow.....it'll probably end up surprising some people.


You need to start supporting these calls with something of substance.


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jasonus03
post Jan 11 2018, 11:45 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 10:39 AM) *
You need to start supporting these calls with something of substance.


Oh, so sorry I spoke out of term. Please forgive me.

I have already said that it is simply a hunch. I don't see why it's such a big deal that I say something like this. No big deal though. I just won't post anymore.

I'm out.
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HassayWx2306
post Jan 11 2018, 11:45 AM
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Sitting pretty somewhere between 6-11 inches cool.gif good luck all
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