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> Hurricane Nate, 10/7 2PM EDT - 90 MPH - 981MB - Movement: NNW @ 23MPH
NWOhioChaser
post Oct 8 2017, 01:36 PM
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Sure isn't wasting it's time incorporating itself into the upper air pattern.
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Undertakerson
post Oct 8 2017, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 8 2017, 02:28 PM) *
Hoping Nate's remnants plus the front can deliver some rain east of the Blue Ridge in Virginia. We desperately need it. Rocks in my river were wearing sunscreen yesterday when I was out fishing. rolleyes.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif

If I use that metaphor, do I have to pay royalties? unsure.gif


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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 8 2017, 07:14 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/20/18)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 5/21/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 8 2017, 07:45 PM
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21 tornado reports as off 8:44PM. blink.gif Usually can at least double the amount of reports after everything is surveyed.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/20/18)
Slight risks: 3 (Last: 5/21/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 9 2017, 07:19 AM
Post #365




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Well Nate provided me with a valuable lesson on WV topography. Unlike Missouri, SW flow aloft with southerly surface flows means downslope imby. Despite Nate tracking almost directly overhead and all available model guidance painting 2"+ ... I have only received ~0.65" of precip and for all practical purposes the rain has ended.

We needed the rain here ...

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Oct 9 2017, 07:19 AM


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

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MD Blue Ridge
post Oct 9 2017, 08:34 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Oct 9 2017, 08:19 AM) *
Well Nate provided me with a valuable lesson on WV topography. Unlike Missouri, SW flow aloft with southerly surface flows means downslope imby. Despite Nate tracking almost directly overhead and all available model guidance painting 2"+ ... I have only received ~0.65" of precip and for all practical purposes the rain has ended.

We needed the rain here ...


Windward and leeward are terms that will now be giant terms in your weather patterns. laugh.gif


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Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 12 2017, 10:19 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 8 2017, 08:45 PM) *
21 tornado reports as off 8:44PM. blink.gif Usually can at least double the amount of reports after everything is surveyed.

To my knowledge, there were 9 of confirmed tornadoes:

EF1 in Blacksburg, VA forecast area

7 tornadoes in the Greenville/Spartanburg, SC forecast area including 2 EF0s, 3 EF1s, and 2 EF2s

EF1 in Columbia, SC forecast area including some mesoscale analysis/ contextual information


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Oct 12 2017, 10:27 AM
Post #368




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Oct 9 2017, 09:34 AM) *
Windward and leeward are terms that will now be giant terms in your weather patterns. laugh.gif

Yup, I prefer upslope/downslope, but the point is the same.

I got burned pretty bad forecasting this event. My boss, who's a hydrologist, was relying on a big event to get the local streams flowing for an ongoing research project. Oh well, the best/fastest way to learn is by screwing up big time.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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