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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Jan 5 2018, 06:33 PM
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Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 742.67K ) Number of downloads: 0

...sub-tropical warm front is trying to move in...some lingering showers should remain through Sat. morning...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 314.85K ) Number of downloads: 0

...next stronger storm cruises in on Monday...by Tuesday morning should be in full steam with widespread rain smile.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 5 2018, 06:38 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 8 2018, 08:38 PM
Post #222




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...rain all day...got to love it...next surge coming through overnight...Southern and Central California need it!
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 754.18K ) Number of downloads: 0

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 309.08K ) Number of downloads: 0

rolleyes.gif ...Yabba dabba doo...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 12 2018, 08:46 PM
Post #223




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...over 2 inches of rain was widespread in Bay Area...mountains got 4-6" with 10" plus in southern coastal mts...unfortunately this also contributed to the awful mudslides/debris flows near Montecito...

...more on the way early next week...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 734.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


...southern trajectories are still in play with ridges dominating upper Canada...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 296.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


...high begins to shift by Monday...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 299.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


...let us get what we can before another winter high pressure of significance builds in... dry.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 16 2018, 08:39 PM
Post #224




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...little to no rain from last night's 'system'... sad.gif ...moisture is very rich to our west...slowly pushing east...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 660.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


...big system in mid-Pacific is slowly evolving into a larger storm...angle and forward motion say Wednesday night to Thursday morning for arrival...the dampening of the big high pressures will be a big plus...Zonal flow?
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 298.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


...OPC view puts front on Northern California's doorstep...with a 965mb low blink.gif just off Victoria Island, BC

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 295.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


...second storm is forming in far western Pacific basin...seems to ride on a strong jet extension into the West...and the 500mb from OPC says we look to see 'zonal' flow for a few days...with moisture-rich air entering the CONUS...perhaps sending a snow storm (or two) into the Rockies/Midwest, then Northeast into the next weekend...resolving the Arctic air distribution factor will take place and February may start with ridge returning...long term could imply atmospheric weakness along the West Coast into Spring...or not...

OPC 96hr: upper air 500mb
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 325.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


... rolleyes.gif ...let it 'flow'...

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 17 2018, 08:21 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 17 2018, 08:39 PM
Post #225




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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... rolleyes.gif ...had to edit previous post...idee worked Monday Martin Luther King Day and was one day off in his thinking...hopefully no one took their bumbershoot to work today expecting rain... laugh.gif
...rain should begin in the wee hours of Thursday morning...with some embedded heavier showers...lighter amounts will stick around through Friday...with a chance for a dusting of snow on the highest Bay Area peaks...
...now we have a very vigorous extratropical storm spinning off the coast of British Columbia...~ 965mb ...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 685.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...lots of cold air stacked in behind this front...snows will be much lower than they have been in previous storms...speckled clouds behind the front show lots of uplift...and a 'jet streak' is aiming at the West Coast...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 295.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


...OPC 48hr. shows that low pressure may remain offshore into Friday allowing for cooler air and instability showers (snow to 3500') to reach down into the Bay Area on the back side of front...some energy moves east into Four Corners region emerging as a snow storm into the MidWest early next week...Northeast should follow

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 302.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


...96hr shows a push of Arctic air may recycle around the back of this large trough...coldest air of the year for California???? by middle of next week...we shall see...more rain also...
OPC 96hr: 500mb upper air
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 337.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the 'storm door' is definitely 'open' while this potentially 'short-lived' push of 'zonal' flow persists and the moisture track of upper air stays focused on the middle of the West Coast...

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 17 2018, 08:41 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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