Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

125 Pages V  « < 115 116 117 118 119 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
conifer1
post Jan 13 2018, 12:15 PM
Post #2321




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 230
Joined: 31-October 12
From: Cottontown, TN
Member No.: 27,092





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 13 2018, 12:58 PM) *
Thanks for the Front loaded winter. Now back to our regularly scheduled program?

[attachment=343474:page.jpeg]

My opinion...I dont think we'll get "sustained" below normal cold anymore. I think we made our lowest lows for 2018. Snow chances seem minimal after Tuesday here. Ups and Downs mostly so timing has to be perfect for us. Unlike when we had arctic air sustained it was easier to get snow.

Maybe an Early Spring coming? 50s-60s in February. 70s in March?


I realize you stated it was your opinion but in the hope of learning more, that opinion is based off of what exactly?


--------------------
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 13 2018, 12:33 PM
Post #2322




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,407
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 13 2018, 01:58 PM) *
Thanks for the Front loaded winter. Now back to our regularly scheduled program?

[attachment=343474:page.jpeg]

My opinion...I dont think we'll get "sustained" below normal cold anymore. I think we made our lowest lows for 2018. Snow chances seem minimal after Tuesday here. Ups and Downs mostly so timing has to be perfect for us. Unlike when we had arctic air sustained it was easier to get snow.

Maybe an Early Spring coming? 50s-60s in February. 70s in March?


I mean the love has to spread across the country we cant always get it; its bound to happen been the case for many years, but it surely doesnt mean we are out of the game. Sustained cold again its possible, but I do like the idea of a back forth 3-4 day stretch of cold/warm pattern maybe locking in more time as we move into february more of a 5-6 day pattern. I actually like back forth patterns brings more fun and many chances on both ends of the spectrum convective in warm and cold?

I do agree as long as strato holds I would say march looks rather warm.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 13 2018, 12:35 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 01:33 PM
Post #2323




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 41,836
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





1/13 12Z NAEFS:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 102.6K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Jan 13 2018, 01:39 PM
Post #2324




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,685
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





Things to consider for JAN 20 winter storm:

-PNA, but a lot of blocking to the north

-baroclinic zone...how much snowcover left & will it play a role in storm track?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Jan 13 2018, 01:42 PM
Post #2325




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,685
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 13 2018, 10:58 AM) *
Thanks for the Front loaded winter. Now back to our regularly scheduled program?

[attachment=343474:page.jpeg]

My opinion...I dont think we'll get "sustained" below normal cold anymore. I think we made our lowest lows for 2018. Snow chances seem minimal after Tuesday here. Ups and Downs mostly so timing has to be perfect for us. Unlike when we had arctic air sustained it was easier to get snow.

Maybe an Early Spring coming? 50s-60s in February. 70s in March?



RRWT for FEB would totally disagree. Currently it calls for a lot of west ridging, plus -EPO, & troughing mostly in the east. We shall see....BSR, RRWT has kicked model guidance rears this winter, see no reason for it to change now

This post has been edited by grace: Jan 13 2018, 03:18 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 02:00 PM
Post #2326




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,086
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(conifer1 @ Jan 13 2018, 05:06 AM) *
Keep hearing of a warm up but then I see tweets about some type of warming in the atmosphere that could lead to more cold end of month. Anyone have any thoughts on this?


Timing...all about the timing. There is a lag correlation to ssw as to how it impacts our weather. I'm sure the rest of the gang like, so what's happening, will be talking about it in the stratosphere thread.

Soo...be careful on those who are locking in arctic cold in the East based on 240hr stratosphere maps.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 02:40 PM
Post #2327




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 41,836
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





Even cold and snow lover me wants a temperature break every now and then..


Attached File(s)
Attached File  capture1.png ( 356.83K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Jan 13 2018, 03:21 PM
Post #2328




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,685
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 01:40 PM) *
Even cold and snow lover me wants a temperature break every now and then..



BSR would say "no" once again. EAR suggests big winter storm potential JAN 25-26 followed by cold. We will wait & see smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 04:15 PM
Post #2329




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 41,836
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





QUOTE(grace @ Jan 13 2018, 03:21 PM) *
BSR would say "no" once again. EAR suggests big winter storm potential JAN 25-26 followed by cold. We will wait & see smile.gif



That is possible but by a break, I mean 5 to 7 days. I do not want it too long smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 04:19 PM
Post #2330




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 41,836
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





1/13 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS850Day0_5.PNG ( 860.03K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  EPS850Day5_10.png ( 754.1K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  EPS850Day10_15.png ( 803.83K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 04:20 PM
Post #2331




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 41,836
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





1/13 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay0_5.PNG ( 899.14K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay5_10.PNG ( 808.91K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay10_15.PNG ( 807.94K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 04:32 PM
Post #2332




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 41,836
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





See if this works. Testing this 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter anom animated gif (guess it works)..too bad there is a 2 meg upload size on the forums..

This post has been edited by RobB: Jan 13 2018, 04:33 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  ezgif.com_resize.gif ( 1.78MB ) Number of downloads: 2
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 05:32 PM
Post #2333




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,086
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 03:32 PM) *
See if this works. Testing this 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter anom animated gif (guess it works)..too bad there is a 2 meg upload size on the forums..


Nice job!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Jan 13 2018, 06:41 PM
Post #2334




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,126
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(conifer1 @ Jan 13 2018, 12:15 PM) *
I realize you stated it was your opinion but in the hope of learning more, that opinion is based off of what exactly?


Nothing really. Not a forecast. Just a wild opinion. Maybe a warm LaNina thought with the SER? Im also curious how many times in the past 20 yrs we've had 2 of 3 winter months below normal. Seems like we get 1 and done. I could be wrong.

QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 13 2018, 12:33 PM) *
I mean the love has to spread across the country we cant always get it; its bound to happen been the case for many years, but it surely doesnt mean we are out of the game. Sustained cold again its possible, but I do like the idea of a back forth 3-4 day stretch of cold/warm pattern maybe locking in more time as we move into february more of a 5-6 day pattern. I actually like back forth patterns brings more fun and many chances on both ends of the spectrum convective in warm and cold?

I do agree as long as strato holds I would say march looks rather warm.


Not to rush it but.. Meteo Spring is in just 6 wks. Since nothing impressive in the works next 10 days at least, that leaves the chance of 4 weeks left. Still possible. We'll see.


QUOTE(grace @ Jan 13 2018, 01:42 PM) *
RRWT for FEB would totally disagree. Currently it calls for a lot of west ridging, plus -EPO, & troughing mostly in the east. We shall see....BSR, RRWT has kicked model guidance rears this winter, see no reason for it to change now


Do you trust RRWT more than CFS? Just wondering. We can all choose something to support our thinking but we all know things can change for long range stuff.

Attached File  cfs_mon_01_T850a_us_1.png ( 79.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 13 2018, 07:34 PM
Post #2335




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,407
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 13 2018, 08:41 PM) *
Not to rush it but.. Meteo Spring is in just 6 wks. Since nothing impressive in the works next 10 days at least, that leaves the chance of 4 weeks left. Still possible. We'll see.


haha i mean yea but what is that supposed to mean winter ends and spring begins because meteorologists put a date for end date? I get days get longer temps tend to get warmer but I have had some of the best snowstorms and im sure you have in February and march and considering most places are halfway to their totals it wont be hard to see maybe one more big storm to boost to average across a lot of areas.

You are right though we shall see.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 13 2018, 07:36 PM
Post #2336




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 14,407
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 06:32 PM) *
See if this works. Testing this 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter anom animated gif (guess it works)..too bad there is a 2 meg upload size on the forums..


This right here sucks if only though. nice animation though.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
HassayWx2306
post Jan 13 2018, 10:23 PM
Post #2337




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,302
Joined: 29-June 10
From: Northeast Ohio
Member No.: 23,068





QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 04:32 PM) *
See if this works. Testing this 12Z Euro EPS 2 meter anom animated gif (guess it works)..too bad there is a 2 meg upload size on the forums..


Almost looks like its reloading cold for February at then end
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 10:27 PM
Post #2338




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 41,836
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2018, 05:32 PM) *
Nice job!



smile.gif Well it was egif.com and its animated GIF resize that did most of the work along with weathermodels.com .. Heh
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 14 2018, 02:02 AM
Post #2339




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,320
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





I don't like extreme cold like what we're about to experience, but I will say... it's excellent for sleeping. smile.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 14 2018, 02:55 AM
Post #2340




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,320
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Recent GFS/GEFS runs have had a 2016-17 feel to them for the west coast, for sure... wow.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

125 Pages V  « < 115 116 117 118 119 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
9 User(s) are reading this topic (9 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 21st January 2018 - 11:16 PM