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> January 16-17 MidAtl/NE Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
stretchct
post Jan 13 2018, 11:53 AM
Post #181




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Some looks at in between frames.
Euro hr 114 - clipper snow moving away to the NE
Attached Image

NAVGEM - hr 108. Clipper snow basically faded out and transferred to coast. Hard to separate. At 500 both seem to be involved.
Attached Image


GFS - looks frontal from the clipper.
Attached Image


So I'm going to concede a 1-3 or 2-4 snow from the clipper in this thread. Focus on the other one.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 13 2018, 01:23 PM
Post #182




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Euro text dropped precip from clipper from .25 to .18.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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NorEaster07
post Jan 13 2018, 01:40 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 13 2018, 01:23 PM) *
Euro text dropped precip from clipper from .25 to .18.



Coming here to mention that. And GFS has 0.20".
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Winter lover
post Jan 13 2018, 03:27 PM
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What do the impacts look like for NW CT?? Im hearing anywhere from a near or complete miss or a heavy snowfall.
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stretchct
post Jan 13 2018, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Jan 13 2018, 03:27 PM) *
What do the impacts look like for NW CT?? Im hearing anywhere from a near or complete miss or a heavy snowfall.

This is from the clipper. Still snowing at hr 84
Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jan 13 2018, 04:43 PM
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18z GFS and NAM both showing improvement for this one as well.


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FlyingGuy
post Jan 13 2018, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Jan 13 2018, 03:27 PM) *
What do the impacts look like for NW CT?? Im hearing anywhere from a near or complete miss or a heavy snowfall.


Just up the road from you in Colebrook, Friend.


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MaineJay
post Jan 13 2018, 07:53 PM
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18z GEFS. Looks like more than mood flakes for much of New England.

Attached Image


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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 07:57 PM
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As I told the mw people, I would suggest only using qpf maps since we won't see 10:1 ratios with the clipper.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 13 2018, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2018, 09:57 PM) *
As I told the mw people, I would suggest only using qpf maps since we won't see 10:1 ratios with the clipper.


3-5" along 95 corridor with the clipper frontal location with 4-8 maybe more into Mass/Maine. Could deal with that. What may be of interest to me is the left over boundary across the area with a possible devloping system even if it stays off shore moisture should still make its way back and ignite some type of snow shower possibility which could make for a grey slate for a couple days and a new snowpack for the area.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 13 2018, 08:36 PM


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The Day After To...
post Jan 13 2018, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 13 2018, 08:29 PM) *
3-5" along 95 corridor with the clipper frontal location with 4-8 maybe more into Maine. Could deal with that. What may be of interest to me is the left over boundary across the area with a possible devloping system even if it stays off shore moisture should still make its way back and ignite some type of snow shower possibility which could make for a grey slate for a couple days and a new snowpack for the area.

Might be a nice little surprise storm for some...

3", I have learned, is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to road conditions.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 13 2018, 08:45 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 13 2018, 10:31 PM) *
Might be a nice little surprise storm for some...

3", I have learned, is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to road conditions.


Arctic air with what seems to be the frontal boundary fizzling out as it moves east so there is your uplift region. Can only imagine what may come of that like I said even if the storm is a late bloomer or OTS moisture should still advect through the frontal zone with that baroclinic zone.

Ill be happy if we manage some snows


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Winter lover
post Jan 13 2018, 08:54 PM
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This storm seems to have the same set-up and potential track as the storm that whacked Connecticut and all surrounding states minus the week of arctic air prior to the system.
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The Day After To...
post Jan 13 2018, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 13 2018, 08:45 PM) *
Arctic air with what seems to be the frontal boundary fizzling out as it moves east so there is your uplift region. Can only imagine what may come of that like I said even if the storm is a late bloomer or OTS moisture should still advect through the frontal zone with that baroclinic zone.

Ill be happy if we manage some snows

Same. Well, except the roads. laugh.gif


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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Jan 13 2018, 07:54 PM) *
This storm seems to have the same set-up and potential track as the storm that whacked Connecticut and all surrounding states minus the week of arctic air prior to the system.


In a word...no. Not even close.


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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 14 2018, 05:49 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2018, 09:27 PM) *
In a word...no. Not even close.

Lol....priceless laugh.gif
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NorEaster07
post Jan 14 2018, 06:41 AM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Jan 13 2018, 08:54 PM) *
This storm seems to have the same set-up and potential track as the storm that whacked Connecticut and all surrounding states minus the week of arctic air prior to the system.


blink.gif Wha? Don't even know what to ask. Which one?
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NorEaster07
post Jan 14 2018, 06:46 AM
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Clippers never the best for decent snows East of the Apps..

Euro00z did bump up my qpf back to over 0.20" now. but thanks to the coastal low that develops Tuesday night.

Upton:

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
635 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft, the closed low over the Great Lakes region opens and
lifts into Canada. Trough axis then makes progress toward the
east coast by mid week, passing Thursday, with zonal flow in
it`s wake.

At the sfc, weak trough and offshore low remains southeast of
the area Monday night, ahead of the upper shortwave.

The clipper system weakens and moves slowly into the region as
the upper trough axis remains to the west.
Held off
precipitation until later Monday night. Meanwhile, several
waves of low pressure develop offshore south and east of the
area Wednesday.


The consensus of models, including latest operational ECMWF,
does develop offshore low that is weaker and more progressive
than previous model runs late Wednesday and Wednesday night due
to weaker and more progressive upper trough. High pressure then
builds in during the late week period.

With some warmer air moving in ahead of the clipper system,
snow changes to rain along the coast, as seen mainly in the GFS.

Depending on offshore low development, snow chances will linger
through Tuesday night and Wednesday before drier weather
returns Thursday through Saturday.


Attached Image



Attached Image



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jan 14 2018, 06:46 AM
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wtkidz
post Jan 14 2018, 08:19 AM
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Sterling says MEH for DC Balt & Virginia but one never knows..



Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


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stretchct
post Jan 14 2018, 08:57 AM
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Still looking like a 1-3 2-4 storm with Shane O getting more. Be nice to whiten the ground.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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