Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

6 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Jan. 22-24 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Observations, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations (Former Forecast Thread)
Solstice
post Jan 8 2018, 09:13 PM
Post #1




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 344
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT
Member No.: 31,816





Probably stretching my luck but...

BSR compared to 01/04 Storm looks semi-similar... is that hint of a phase I see?
QUOTE
Attached Image

Attached Image


SOI plunges = drool.
QUOTE
Attached Image


Hovm÷ller Analysis has a couple dates in the ballpark... albeit an old one.
QUOTE
Attached Image


RRWT
QUOTE

Attached Image


*begins intensely sweating*

This post has been edited by Solstice: Yesterday, 12:37 PM


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.
01/17 - Winter Storm - 1.0" Snowfall, 1.0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/19 Night - 0.5" to trace snowpack remains. Hard ice deposits remain in certain areas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Jan 8 2018, 09:14 PM
Post #2




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 344
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT
Member No.: 31,816





... all the attachments failed. Should be up shortly. sad.gif
Edit: Up!

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 8 2018, 09:16 PM


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.
01/17 - Winter Storm - 1.0" Snowfall, 1.0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/19 Night - 0.5" to trace snowpack remains. Hard ice deposits remain in certain areas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Black05GSR
post Jan 10 2018, 02:24 PM
Post #3




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 483
Joined: 26-December 12
From: Linden, NJ and Albrightsville, PA (1850ft)
Member No.: 27,529





I think this goes here. Throw a little GFS love in here for posterity purposes.



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5")
Total: 15.5"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7")
Total: 15.75"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
psu1313
post Jan 10 2018, 02:29 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,479
Joined: 29-January 10
From: Arlington, VA
Member No.: 21,194





This is the one that is going to hit because I'll be headed to a ski trip on the 25th. Look out Mid-Atlantic.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Jan 11 2018, 06:03 PM
Post #5




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 344
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT
Member No.: 31,816





GFS finally showing something.

Attached Image


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.
01/17 - Winter Storm - 1.0" Snowfall, 1.0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/19 Night - 0.5" to trace snowpack remains. Hard ice deposits remain in certain areas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bingobobbo
post Jan 11 2018, 06:37 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,503
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Endwell, NY
Member No.: 16,598





We are near the bull's eye--now I will just have to weather all of the cutterish and the suppressed output.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 08:15 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,929
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





i moved my thread date up a day to accommodate yours. Usually not great practice to start a thread on the day when another one is ending especially when In thread it says dates will be adjusted as needed. We don't usually roll with multiple 8-15days out threats

so your thread can cover the soi drop and the consistently modeled Eastern Asia rule for this period

I'll leave mine to see if the bsr has legs on the 20th


Here is a little gift for you regarding a 3 day 20pt drop of soi during a Nina



And another crossposting from my thread



Very stable storm over Japan coinciding with 23-25 here in the US

Good luck with your thread keep it full of info. Just try not to stretch past an already long range thread and start it the day that one ends and don't get in the me first habit of thread openings. .

If you like a period like it and open it. If you don't then leave it be. Clapper knows that one smile.gif

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 11 2018, 08:18 PM


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Jan 11 2018, 08:35 PM
Post #8




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 344
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT
Member No.: 31,816





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 11 2018, 08:15 PM) *
Good luck with your thread keep it full of info. Just try not to stretch past an already long range thread and start it the day that one ends and don't get in the me first habit of thread openings. .


Yeah, I originally had it as 24-27 but the SOI drop started a bit earlier so I (unfortunately) pushed it back. Debated earlier today to reverse it to accomodate your thread but thought that others might get confused with the dates constantly changing. Sorry 'bout that.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 11 2018, 09:03 PM


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.
01/17 - Winter Storm - 1.0" Snowfall, 1.0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/19 Night - 0.5" to trace snowpack remains. Hard ice deposits remain in certain areas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 08:48 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,929
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 11 2018, 08:35 PM) *
Yeah, I originally had it as 24-27 but the SOI drop started a bit earlier so I (unfortunately) pushed it back. Debated earlier today to reverse it to accomodate your thread but thought that others might get confused with the dates constantly changing. Sorry 'bout that.



Not a problem

I am very happy to see a newer poster dive right in. Shoot me a pm im pretty responsive


I'll be honest I was playing the middle of all the action and was gonna tweak when it became clearer. There is an art to it. One you seem eager to learn. So by all means good luck with the thread some promising signals

Don't forget to check on some teleconnections when you can. And keep your subscript updated to thread title title to standards

Cheers

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 11 2018, 08:54 PM


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Jan 12 2018, 02:57 PM
Post #10




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 344
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT
Member No.: 31,816





Teleconnections


Attached Image


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.
01/17 - Winter Storm - 1.0" Snowfall, 1.0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/19 Night - 0.5" to trace snowpack remains. Hard ice deposits remain in certain areas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 11:29 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,094
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 12 2018, 01:57 PM) *
Teleconnections


Attached Image


..


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Jan 13 2018, 04:27 PM
Post #12




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 344
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT
Member No.: 31,816





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2018, 11:29 AM) *
..


Is that because of the negative PNA?


--------------------
Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.
01/17 - Winter Storm - 1.0" Snowfall, 1.0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/19 Night - 0.5" to trace snowpack remains. Hard ice deposits remain in certain areas.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 05:23 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,094
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 13 2018, 03:27 PM) *
Is that because of the negative PNA?


Negative PNA and flat tellies across the board.

If anyone has the weatherbell or weathermodels.com tellies that would be great because then we could apply my rule.

QUOTE
Forecast high, verify low. Forecast low, verify high.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 15 2018, 08:15 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,094
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2018, 04:23 PM) *
Negative PNA and flat tellies across the board.

If anyone has the weatherbell or weathermodels.com tellies that would be great because then we could apply my rule.


Anyone?

Bueller? Bueller?


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Jan 15 2018, 11:40 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 24,209
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





Models are starting to show a storm during this timeframe


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
Total : 18.5 "
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 15 2018, 12:15 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,094
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jan 15 2018, 10:40 AM) *
Models are starting to show a storm during this timeframe


Do everyone a favor and show them.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowxpress
post Jan 15 2018, 02:06 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,956
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Nazareth, PA
Member No.: 21,019





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 15 2018, 12:15 PM) *
Do everyone a favor and show them.


gfs

Attached Image

Attached Image


euro

Attached Image


cmc

Attached Image


Nav


Attached Image


Gefs

Attached Image




This post has been edited by plowxpress: Jan 15 2018, 02:37 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
psu1313
post Jan 15 2018, 02:20 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,479
Joined: 29-January 10
From: Arlington, VA
Member No.: 21,194





I thought we were looking at the storm after the cutter based on these dates. Lots of energy to be had and it eventually spawns a storm off the east coast.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowxpress
post Jan 15 2018, 02:36 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,956
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Nazareth, PA
Member No.: 21,019





QUOTE(psu1313 @ Jan 15 2018, 02:20 PM) *
I thought we were looking at the storm after the cutter based on these dates. Lots of energy to be had and it eventually spawns a storm off the east coast.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by plowxpress: Jan 15 2018, 02:38 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snowadelphia
post Jan 15 2018, 05:50 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,510
Joined: 22-February 13
From: 19129
Member No.: 28,305





Little southern slider this evening on the GFS during this time frame. Energy is OTS but we have a long way to go.


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

6 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 23rd January 2018 - 04:47 AM