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> January 14-17 Plains/MW/GL/OV Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
grace
post Jan 13 2018, 10:48 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 12 2018, 11:47 PM) *
GEFS



I see a couple of those members have the southern tale energy igniting with the jet. Euro OP has hinted at that. If that occurred would be a good hit in Ark/Tenn
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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 10:53 AM
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GFS
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TheReflex
post Jan 13 2018, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 09:37 AM) *
12Z NAM


Can someone with a better understanding than me tell me why most models seem to think suddenly there will be no accumulation as the storm approaches West Virginia. Is it just turning to the north ? Would figure that the front would atleast give some accumulation. It seems though that there is an abrupt end or cutoff
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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 11:12 AM
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QUOTE(TheReflex @ Jan 13 2018, 10:59 AM) *
Can someone with a better understanding than me tell me why most models seem to think suddenly there will be no accumulation as the storm approaches West Virginia. Is it just turning to the north ? Would figure that the front would atleast give some accumulation. It seems though that there is an abrupt end or cutoff



I'm not 100% sure but it could be terrain related when it comes to the clippers in that area. An almost down sloping effect maybe. I am just spit balling here...

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong in my thinking, anyone.
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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 11:41 AM
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Looking forward to seeing totals out of this one as we all know clippers can produce surprise amounts.


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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2018, 11:41 AM) *
Looking forward to seeing totals out of this one as we all know clippers can produce surprise amounts.



Agreed!

The Canadian:
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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 11:55 AM
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Canadian at 10:1
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james812
post Jan 13 2018, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 10:54 AM) *
Agreed!

The Canadian:


Would be great to get 4 out of this clipper on top of the 5 we got yesterday
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NWOhioChaser
post Jan 13 2018, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 13 2018, 11:55 AM) *
Canadian at 10:1

Hoping this doesn't dry up as it approaches Northern Ohio
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J Wassmer
post Jan 13 2018, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(james812 @ Jan 13 2018, 10:56 AM) *
Would be great to get 4 out of this clipper on top of the 5 we got yesterday

Sure would! Snow on snow rare here (but VERY welcome!) biggrin.gif


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Juniorrr
post Jan 13 2018, 12:49 PM
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12z Uk QPF
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 13 2018, 12:51 PM
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12z UKmet


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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 13 2018, 12:51 PM) *
12z UKmet


Total precip
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mulaman984
post Jan 13 2018, 12:55 PM
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This has a very good chance of giving more snows to Cincy metro area than last nights system did
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 13 2018, 12:58 PM
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QUOTE(TheReflex @ Jan 13 2018, 10:59 AM) *
Can someone with a better understanding than me tell me why most models seem to think suddenly there will be no accumulation as the storm approaches West Virginia. Is it just turning to the north ? Would figure that the front would atleast give some accumulation. It seems though that there is an abrupt end or cutoff

dry air fiercely cuts this one off as it moves east
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cary67
post Jan 13 2018, 01:13 PM
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Lock it in. Have the UKMET, GEM on my side. Just need the NAVGEM and DGEX for this to be a done deal. rolleyes.gif
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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 01:17 PM
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12Z Euro had a bit more QPF IMBY:

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  39.70  LON =  -84.23

                                            12Z JAN13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -11.7   -13.8    1031      67       4    0.00     545     522    
SAT 18Z 13-JAN  -8.9   -17.2    1035      54       7    0.00     544     517    
SUN 00Z 14-JAN  -8.8   -19.2    1037      55      14    0.00     542     514    
SUN 06Z 14-JAN -11.4   -19.4    1038      62       5    0.00     542     513    
SUN 12Z 14-JAN -12.2   -18.0    1040      67       6    0.00     544     514    
SUN 18Z 14-JAN  -8.2   -15.1    1039      55       5    0.00     549     520    
MON 00Z 15-JAN -12.2   -12.0    1036      61       8    0.00     549     522    
MON 06Z 15-JAN -11.7   -11.2    1033      63      99    0.00     547     522    
MON 12Z 15-JAN  -9.0   -11.1    1031      74     100    0.04     545     521    
MON 18Z 15-JAN  -1.9    -8.7    1026      58     100    0.01     545     525    
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  -1.6    -9.2    1026      81      92    0.04     545     525    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  -6.6   -11.4    1028      81      94    0.06     544     522    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN -15.3   -13.0    1033      72      42    0.01     542     517
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 13 2018, 01:17 PM
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Anyone know if the Euro shows improvement? Hard to tell without the precip maps.
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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 13 2018, 01:17 PM
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Pretty high ratios but they aren't very bullish on the qpf attm
IWX latest:


LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

Clipper system remains on track to impact the region Sunday night
into Monday. Surface low track remains just to our north as left
front region of cyclonically curved 100+kt jet streak moves over the
area. Modest system relative isentropic lift develops Sunday
night ahead of this feature and light snow should spread east
through the late evening and overnight. As typical with these
clippers there is not a lot of moisture available but good lift
with diffluence aloft from jet streak and 1.5 PVU surface dropping
to around 600 mb should help system maximize pcpn/snowfall. Model
QPF has been rather consistent around two tenths of an inch and
this matches well with WPC values. Snow ratios should be near or
slightly above climo and close to 15:1 - 18:1 for this event.
Rather deep DGZ being depicted but not supersaturated and
strongest lift still near top or above this zone which will keep
ratios lower than models despite the very cold temps. Forecast
remains on track with general 1 to 3 inches across the area. Could
see some enhancement toward end of event in the far NW near the
lake as winds become westerly and some lake enhancement kicks in.
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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 01:19 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 13 2018, 01:17 PM) *
Anyone know if the Euro shows improvement? Hard to tell without the precip maps.



IT showed improvement in my back yard with qpf. I shall check and see how far the maps are.
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