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> January 14-17 Plains/MW/GL/OV Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 10 2018, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 10 2018, 11:29 PM) *
Plus temps look good for high ratio potential. This one looks like a classic with a solid 2-3 with lollipops of 4-5.

Yeah, IWM includes those ratios, definitely cold
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 10 2018, 11:33 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 10 2018, 11:31 PM) *
Welcome disappointed Jan.12-14th posters.

Was this your plan all along laugh.gif
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mulaman984
post Jan 10 2018, 11:33 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 10 2018, 11:31 PM) *
Welcome disappointed Jan.12-14th posters.


Lol - made me laugh :/
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cary67
post Jan 10 2018, 11:36 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 10 2018, 10:33 PM) *
Was this your plan all along laugh.gif

Clippers never get the attention they deserve.lol Feel bad that storm didnt materialize for the OV though. Lots of misses the last few years.
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 10 2018, 11:43 PM
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GEM
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:8.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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Snow____
post Jan 11 2018, 12:50 AM
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Hopefully Valpo can get that 5 inches.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 11 2018, 06:30 AM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 10 2018, 11:31 PM) *
Welcome disappointed Jan.12-14th posters.


Yep. Ready for the next once in a lifetime event. rolleyes.gif
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ValpoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 07:00 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 10 2018, 11:50 PM) *
Hopefully Valpo can get that 5 inches.


That'd be HUGE.
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ValpoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 07:02 AM
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LOT Morning AFD

For several model cycles, the operational models and many of the individual
ensemble members have been remarkably consistent in a strong
signal for a clipper type system to affect the region with snow
Sunday evening through at least Monday. A complex mid and upper
pattern evolving Monday into Tuesday could prolong snow or snow
showers for portions of the area during that time.

The very strong signal in the guidance for this clipper to affect
the area increases confidence in at least some snow occurring with
it, with likely to categorical PoPs indicated. However, it is
still several days out, and these systems can exhibit track
changes in closer ranges after initially very good model
agreement. Cold temperatures and a forecast deep DGZ could *potentially*
favor high snow to liquid ratios, but it is too early to have high
confidence in this aspect of the system this far out.

Current forecast PoPs would indicate prime time for the system
for the area to be Sunday evening and night through Monday morning
from west to east. As mentioned earlier, the upper pattern will
then become complex later Monday into Tuesday. A lobe of the polar
vortex is expected to rotate in behind the clipper low and get
cut off over the western lakes. This evolution could keep forcing
for at least snow showers going later Monday into Tuesday, with
lake effect snow behind a secondary cold front associated with the
setup also something to watch for.

Should this clipper play out as is suggested by the significant
consensus of the latest guidance, then new snow cover should be
put down area wide, which would likely result in colder
temperatures and wind chills than in current gridded forecast for
the Tuesday-Wednesday period.
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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 11 2018, 07:12 AM
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"Prolonged" snow showers. Cooking with gas once again. At least it's something I guess. rolleyes.gif


[quote name='ValpoSnow' date='Jan 11 2018, 07:02 AM' post='2283890']
LOT Morning AFD

For several model cycles, the operational models and many of the individual
ensemble members have been remarkably consistent in a strong
signal for a clipper type system to affect the region with snow
Sunday evening through at least Monday. A complex mid and upper
pattern evolving Monday into Tuesday could prolong snow or snow
showers for portions of the area during that time.

The very strong signal in the guidance for this clipper to affect
the area increases confidence in at least some snow occurring with
it, with likely to categorical PoPs indicated. However, it is
still several days out, and these systems can exhibit track
changes in closer ranges after initially very good model
agreement. Cold temperatures and a forecast deep DGZ could *potentially*
favor high snow to liquid ratios, but it is too early to have high
confidence in this aspect of the system this far out.

Current forecast PoPs would indicate prime time for the system
for the area to be Sunday evening and night through Monday morning
from west to east. As mentioned earlier, the upper pattern will
then become complex later Monday into Tuesday. A lobe of the polar
vortex is expected to rotate in behind the clipper low and get
cut off over the western lakes. This evolution could keep forcing
for at least snow showers going later Monday into Tuesday, with
lake effect snow behind a secondary cold front associated with the
setup also something to watch for.

Should this clipper play out as is suggested by the significant
consensus of the latest guidance, then new snow cover should be
put down area wide, which would likely result in colder
temperatures and wind chills than in current gridded forecast for
the Tuesday-Wednesday period.
[/quote
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RobB
post Jan 11 2018, 07:13 AM
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Many times clippers can be so entertaining. They can bring isolated areas a surprise thump. It is also a little harder to be disappointed in them as most peeps don't generally expect a lot of the white with them.
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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 11 2018, 07:17 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 07:13 AM) *
Many times clippers can be so entertaining. They can bring isolated areas a surprise thump. It is also a little harder to be disappointed in them as most peeps don't generally expect a lot of the white with them.


Totally. You could be surprised and more than double the predicted amount from 1 to 2.5 inches even!!!! laugh.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by N.Indianaweather: Jan 11 2018, 07:18 AM
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RobB
post Jan 11 2018, 07:27 AM
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QUOTE(N.Indianaweather @ Jan 11 2018, 07:17 AM) *
Totally. You could be surprised and more than double the predicted amount from 1 to 2.5 inches even!!!! laugh.gif laugh.gif



biggrin.gif Well played...
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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 11 2018, 07:50 AM
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Modeling doesn't look half bad on this one. Hopefully mother nature will throw us a bone. Law of averages??Maybe? Haha
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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 11 2018, 07:58 AM
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Not really for this thread but pretty impressive arctic front passage with accompanying morning commute driving disaster biggrin.gif



Arctic front will move into the northwest this evening with
impressive temperature drop immediately in its wake. Have used
the consensus raw guidance to capture the hourly temperature
trends which will be critical in determining pcpn type and
accumulations. Bufkit soundings and these temp trends suggest
rain will begin to change over to mixed precipitation in the
northwest between 01z and 03z and may not changeover in far
southeast until closer to 12z Friday. Bufkit soundings indicate
freezing rain and sleet initially but impressive cold wedge will
undercut warm air aloft and quickly become deep enough to freeze
most liquid pcpn into sleet for several hours before warm layer
aloft is eroded. Confidence is high in mixed pcpn development but
still low with regards to amounts of ice, sleet and snow
accumulations given timing issues and how fast cold wedge deepens.
Differences of just a few degrees over a couple hours will make a
huge difference in what falls and accumulates. For now have up to
a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation with a general 1 to 2
inches of snow and sleet accumulation. Snow amounts slightly
higher in the far southeast where pcpn may linger longer Friday
afternoon and evening as system deepens to our east.
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beaver56
post Jan 11 2018, 07:58 AM
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What time is this slated to occur?


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Snowfall Total (as of 3/25): 61.1" (Snowiest ever for my area!!!)
2013-2014 Winter Ice Total: .30"

Last Snow Event: 1" (3/25)
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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 11 2018, 08:52 AM
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QUOTE(beaver56 @ Jan 11 2018, 07:58 AM) *
What time is this slated to occur?


Freezing rain/sleet overnight here with huge temp crash. Sounds like near flash freeze by around 4.We're slated to get .1 of freezing rain and .5 sleet.1-2 inches of snow. Tomorrow morning is going to be a mess

This post has been edited by N.Indianaweather: Jan 11 2018, 08:52 AM
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beaver56
post Jan 11 2018, 10:32 AM
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QUOTE(N.Indianaweather @ Jan 11 2018, 08:52 AM) *
Freezing rain/sleet overnight here with huge temp crash. Sounds like near flash freeze by around 4.We're slated to get .1 of freezing rain and .5 sleet.1-2 inches of snow. Tomorrow morning is going to be a mess


Thanks. I am curious about the Sunday / Monday snow.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Snowfall Total (as of 3/25): 61.1" (Snowiest ever for my area!!!)
2013-2014 Winter Ice Total: .30"

Last Snow Event: 1" (3/25)
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RobB
post Jan 11 2018, 11:03 AM
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12Z GFS 48 hour snows at hour 117
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Juniorrr
post Jan 11 2018, 11:05 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 11:03 AM) *
12Z GFS 48 hour snows at hour 117

This would be quite a spread the wealth system. Lots of areas there that need the snow.
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