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> Jan 17-20nd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 07:57 PM
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Firstly the bsr looks excellent with an opportunity at phasing the PAC and artic jets

I notice an hp in the pna region which leans me to believe a +pna will be available

BSR






This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 13 2018, 09:51 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 07:59 PM
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A continued interesting looks extends from the 21st into the 23rd matching the soi delta dates




A lot of Gom action 22-23rd continues during thread dates







This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 08:14 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM
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EAR

Shows a barely missed phase between to pieces



Euro has the same disturbancecon the 17th which would match a short correlation to the 20th but a 6d lead to the 23rd


For thread opening purposes I'm going to use these systems to correlate rather than revert back to the systems in Japan yesterday and today. Their look compared more favorably to what I see in the bsr anyway


SOID
Southern oscillation index delta displays a large 4 day drop centered on the night of the 24th

There is a chance a stsytem may follow the heels of this thread. We just have to wait and see and adjust or open a new threat



RRWT averaged to 57 days and spanning 3 days to fit thread duration





This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 08:24 PM


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Undertakerson
post Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 07:57 PM) *
Firstly the bsr looks excellent with an opportunity at phasing the PAC and artic jets

I notice an hp in the pna region which leans me to believe a +pna will be available

BSR





Hurricane Force - ooh!

It kind of busts my (according to rtcemc, ever evolving) LR winter outlook, I can't find anything to not like about this time pd.

Might have to peck at this during Rooster shift, but weekend system has questions still, so maybe not quite yet.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 08:05 PM
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Statistical

Deterministics

Gfs has shown a storm between the 21st and 23rd for quite a few cycles now, some suppressed some cutterish. Here is latests 18z



Euro out to the 20th has a digging Midwest trof



Probalistics

Gefs on the 22nd shows a non washed out mean which is very interesting


This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 08:25 PM


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RobB
post Jan 10 2018, 08:06 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM) *
Hurricane Force - ooh!

It kind of busts my (according to rtcemc, ever evolving) LR winter outlook, I can't find anything to not like about this time pd.

Might have to peck at this during Rooster shift, but weekend system has questions still, so maybe not quite yet.



smile.gif

What's this thing called the BSR?!?! wink.gif smile.gif

Well, UT, maybe it will show 250 miles to the northwest and help keep your call intact smile.gif
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Storms R us
post Jan 10 2018, 08:15 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM) *
]EAR

Shows a barely missed phase between to pieces



Euro has the same disturbancecon the 17th which would match a short correlation to the 20rd but a 6d lead to the 23rd


For thread opening purposes I'm going to use these systems to correlate rather than revert back to the systems in Japan yesterday and today. Their look compared more favorably to what I see in the bsr anyway
SOID
Southern oscillation index delta displays a large 4 day drop centered on the night of the 22-23rd



RRWT averaged to 57 days and spanning 3 days to fit thread duration






Has the GFS been all that great as I thought it hadden but the NAV has been somewhat o.k. with the last storm and this current one, or am I wrong?

I know Earth 3D weather att is showing warm (50s - 60) in the Dover DE area so we will be keeping an eye on the changes as there will be many.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Jan 10 2018, 08:37 PM
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Solstice
post Jan 10 2018, 08:16 PM
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RRWT from 01/04


Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 10 2018, 08:16 PM) *
RRWT from 01/04


Attached Image


Thanks for the addition solstice! Much appreciated


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 09:15 PM
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Close to 3 day 20pt soi drop

So take it fwiw and thanks Joe Renken



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 09:16 PM


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Solstice
post Jan 10 2018, 09:32 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 09:05 PM) *
Thanks for the addition solstice! Much appreciated


Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not... That profile picture makes me feel like I'm talking to a robot laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 10 2018, 09:45 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 09:49 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 10 2018, 09:32 PM) *
Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not... That profile picture makes me feel like I'm talking to a robot laugh.gif


Heck no I'm serious

You posted the archived 5d rrwt chart for this period. Very keen of you to do that smile.gif



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Solstice
post Jan 10 2018, 09:51 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 09:49 PM) *
Heck no I'm serious

You posted the archived 5d rrwt chart for this period. Very keen of you to do that smile.gif


Ah ok laugh.gif. On a side note, sadly, the 6-20 day from there was discontinued a few days ago sad.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 10 2018, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 10 2018, 09:51 PM) *
Ah ok laugh.gif. On a side note, sadly, the 6-20 day from there was discontinued a few days ago sad.gif


Darn

The one thing I do notice in the 5d map you posted shoes the propensity for a +pna and some high latitude blocking.

Currently esrl and ensembles have our pna going negative. So we wait and see:)

I enjoy opening long range threads without the reliance of models deterministic or probalistics. It adds to the challenge and if you get a hang for it the dates become even more accurate than models believe it or not. Ofm is an excellent tool

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 09:57 PM


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shaulov4
post Jan 10 2018, 11:58 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 07:59 PM) *
A continued interesting looks extends from the 21st into the 23rd matching the soi delta dates




A lot of Gom action 22-23rd continues during thread dates





Was going to make this thread but my laziness always reduces my success with anything of that nature.
Happy you did this my lad, wish you luck with this one looks promising.
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LUCC
post Jan 11 2018, 01:22 PM
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This post has been edited by LUCC: Jan 11 2018, 01:22 PM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 01:54 PM
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Darth Vadar appears before the storm



Be scared


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 03:00 PM
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Gfs for the 23rd




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PoconoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 03:08 PM
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Currently there isn't much statistical guidance supporting this period

Just those funny looking maps

And a goofus run or two

wacko.gif wacko.gif wacko.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 08:22 PM
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This thread is now going for pure snake eyes on the 20th





Soid drop and east Asia rule for this period can now be discussed in the 23-26th thread.

Thanks


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