 Jan 17-20nd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST |
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 Jan 10 2018, 07:57 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494  |
Firstly the bsr looks excellent with an opportunity at phasing the PAC and artic jets
I notice an hp in the pna region which leans me to believe a +pna will be available BSR    
This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 13 2018, 09:51 AM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 07:59 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
A continued interesting looks extends from the 21st into the 23rd matching the soi delta dates
 A lot of Gom action 22-23rd continues during thread dates   This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 08:14 PM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
EAR
Shows a barely missed phase between to pieces  Euro has the same disturbancecon the 17th which would match a short correlation to the 20th but a 6d lead to the 23rd  For thread opening purposes I'm going to use these systems to correlate rather than revert back to the systems in Japan yesterday and today. Their look compared more favorably to what I see in the bsr anyway SOID Southern oscillation index delta displays a large 4 day drop centered on the night of the 24th There is a chance a stsytem may follow the heels of this thread. We just have to wait and see and adjust or open a new threat  RRWT averaged to 57 days and spanning 3 days to fit thread duration   
This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 08:24 PM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM
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#4
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 32,561 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 |
QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 07:57 PM)  Firstly the bsr looks excellent with an opportunity at phasing the PAC and artic jets I notice an hp in the pna region which leans me to believe a +pna will be available BSR Hurricane Force - ooh! It kind of busts my (according to rtcemc, ever evolving) LR winter outlook, I can't find anything to not like about this time pd. Might have to peck at this during Rooster shift, but weekend system has questions still, so maybe not quite yet. -------------------- |
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Jan 10 2018, 08:05 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
Statistical
Deterministics Gfs has shown a storm between the 21st and 23rd for quite a few cycles now, some suppressed some cutterish. Here is latests 18z  Euro out to the 20th has a digging Midwest trof  Probalistics Gefs on the 22nd shows a non washed out mean which is very interesting 
This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 08:25 PM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 08:06 PM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM) Hurricane Force - ooh! It kind of busts my (according to rtcemc, ever evolving) LR winter outlook, I can't find anything to not like about this time pd. Might have to peck at this during Rooster shift, but weekend system has questions still, so maybe not quite yet.  What's this thing called the BSR?!?!  Well, UT, maybe it will show 250 miles to the northwest and help keep your call intact
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Jan 10 2018, 08:15 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,756 Joined: 12-February 13 Member No.: 28,281 |
QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 08:02 PM) ]EAR Shows a barely missed phase between to pieces Euro has the same disturbancecon the 17th which would match a short correlation to the 20rd but a 6d lead to the 23rd For thread opening purposes I'm going to use these systems to correlate rather than revert back to the systems in Japan yesterday and today. Their look compared more favorably to what I see in the bsr anyway SOID Southern oscillation index delta displays a large 4 day drop centered on the night of the 22-23rd RRWT averaged to 57 days and spanning 3 days to fit thread duration Has the GFS been all that great as I thought it hadden but the NAV has been somewhat o.k. with the last storm and this current one, or am I wrong? I know Earth 3D weather att is showing warm (50s - 60) in the Dover DE area so we will be keeping an eye on the changes as there will be many. This post has been edited by Storms R us: Jan 10 2018, 08:37 PM |
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Jan 10 2018, 08:16 PM
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#8
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 904 Joined: 8-December 17 From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft) Member No.: 31,816 |
RRWT from 01/04
-------------------- Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5". January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9". April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018). Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter: 68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018). 180.3% of average snowfall so far. * - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison. |
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Jan 10 2018, 09:05 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 10 2018, 08:16 PM) RRWT from 01/04
Thanks for the addition solstice! Much appreciated -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 09:15 PM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
Close to 3 day 20pt soi drop
So take it fwiw and thanks Joe Renken 
This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 09:16 PM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 09:32 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 904 Joined: 8-December 17 From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft) Member No.: 31,816 |
QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 09:05 PM) Thanks for the addition solstice! Much appreciated Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not... That profile picture makes me feel like I'm talking to a robot 
This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 10 2018, 09:45 PM -------------------- Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5". January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9". April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018). Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter: 68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018). 180.3% of average snowfall so far. * - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison. |
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Jan 10 2018, 09:49 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 10 2018, 09:32 PM) Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not... That profile picture makes me feel like I'm talking to a robot Heck no I'm serious You posted the archived 5d rrwt chart for this period. Very keen of you to do that -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 09:51 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 904 Joined: 8-December 17 From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft) Member No.: 31,816 |
QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 09:49 PM) Heck no I'm serious You posted the archived 5d rrwt chart for this period. Very keen of you to do that Ah ok . On a side note, sadly, the 6-20 day from there was discontinued a few days ago 
-------------------- Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5". January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9". April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018). Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter: 68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018). 180.3% of average snowfall so far. * - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison. |
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Jan 10 2018, 09:55 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 10 2018, 09:51 PM) Ah ok . On a side note, sadly, the 6-20 day from there was discontinued a few days ago Darn The one thing I do notice in the 5d map you posted shoes the propensity for a +pna and some high latitude blocking. Currently esrl and ensembles have our pna going negative. So we wait and see:) I enjoy opening long range threads without the reliance of models deterministic or probalistics. It adds to the challenge and if you get a hang for it the dates become even more accurate than models believe it or not. Ofm is an excellent tool This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 09:57 PM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 10 2018, 11:58 PM
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#15
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,973 Joined: 7-August 11 Member No.: 25,872 |
QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 07:59 PM) A continued interesting looks extends from the 21st into the 23rd matching the soi delta dates A lot of Gom action 22-23rd continues during thread dates Was going to make this thread but my laziness always reduces my success with anything of that nature. Happy you did this my lad, wish you luck with this one looks promising. |
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Jan 11 2018, 01:22 PM
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#16
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,134 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Robbinsville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 |
This post has been edited by LUCC: Jan 11 2018, 01:22 PM -------------------- Winter '17-'18 12/9 - 5.5" 12/13-14 - 1.5" 12/15 - 2.25" 12/30 - 4" 1/4 - 6.5" 1/17 - 1" 2/17 - 3.5" 3/2 - 0.5" 3/7 - 10.25" (thanks PARD) 3/13 - 2.25" 3/21 - 11.5" Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5" Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5" Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5" Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0" |
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Jan 11 2018, 01:54 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
Darth Vadar appears before the storm
 Be scared -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 11 2018, 03:00 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
Gfs for the 23rd
 -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 11 2018, 03:08 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
Currently there isn't much statistical guidance supporting this period
Just those funny looking maps And a goofus run or two 
-------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 11 2018, 08:22 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
This thread is now going for pure snake eyes on the 20th
Soid drop and east Asia rule for this period can now be discussed in the 23-26th thread. Thanks -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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