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> Jan 17-20nd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Undertakerson
post Jan 13 2018, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 13 2018, 10:13 AM) *
What are your thoughts for this system POC? New England special ?

Would be a good call ATTM - TBH - but OFM usually verifies a bit n/w of the projection (or at least BSR had at one point, not sure if overlay change affected that) - and any strong storm that is near OBX and then retrogrades (or heads due N) will be close enough at D5 lead time, to come closer (as suggested by the NAV rule)


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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 10:42 AM
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This will be for the trailing system as shown on WPC. I will adjust the threads accordingly.


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DCBlizzard
post Jan 13 2018, 10:43 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 13 2018, 10:08 AM) *
Here is the opening post of the 16-18th thread



One snap of the gfs depicting a storm that happens nearly on the 16th which doesn't even resemble the storm we are tracking now

No is there any explanation of other guidance or ofm. It also hasn't been updated since.

And just because a thread has dates closer to the current day doesn't make it any likelier of happening....

I still contend that as depicted the "surprise" storm matches nearly perfectly with the ofm depiction of the Bering sea rule for 00z on the 20th which is actually 7pm on the 19th.

So yes I do contend as currently depicted this thread is where "snake eyes" belongs and should be discussed. Period.


I am completely confused as I am sure are other members. Can we just either combine the two threads or delete one? Capital Weather Gang in DC is talking about a storm Tuesday 16th / Wednesday the 17th. Is this the storm everyone is referring to?
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stretchct
post Jan 13 2018, 12:07 PM
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Crud. I just spent 10 minutes comparing 500mb with the euro/nam/gfs. It was showing the nam in agreement with the euro and the gfs being too fast and shallow with the energy, which isn't unusual.

Then I noticed I was comparing all 0z runs. Updated to the 12z runs of the GFS/NAM compared to the Euro and now the NAM and GFS agree.....can't wait to see what the Euro does.


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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NorEaster07
post Jan 13 2018, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 13 2018, 12:07 PM) *
Crud. I just spent 10 minutes comparing 500mb with the euro/nam/gfs. It was showing the nam in agreement with the euro and the gfs being too fast and shallow with the energy, which isn't unusual.

Then I noticed I was comparing all 0z runs. Updated to the 12z runs of the GFS/NAM compared to the Euro and now the NAM and GFS agree.....can't wait to see what the Euro does.


Lol. I've done that before. Actually drew on the map showing stuff then realizing it was previous run and a new run was out. Delete, log off, break. Lol
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 12:42 PM
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I'll be honest

It's been very hectic lately

My original thread I got too cute with and tried splitting dates I liked and was going to tweak as necessary

Someone then opened a thread for 23-26

Which left this thread for what I liked and saw on the 20thb bsr, which I called snakeyes, the ull and mslp looked like eyes lol

From what I saw if today's 13z suite so far it had t really improved like I thought it would

As noted by uts, the western ridge structure looks fantastic for a amplified closed off solution on the east coast



I will likely not be able to see this unbiasedly because it semi resembles one of my favorite storms of all time
Feb 10, 2010

So no matter what I look at I will want to see that system lol

Unfortunately 12z guidance did not step to what I'd like to see, though the ridge structure is still there for a closed ull to dance

More models and hopefully different solution to follow. :/


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stretchct
post Jan 13 2018, 01:15 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 13 2018, 12:42 PM) *
I'll be honest

It's been very hectic lately

My original thread I got too cute with and tried splitting dates I liked and was going to tweak as necessary

Someone then opened a thread for 23-26

Which left this thread for what I liked and saw on the 20thb bsr, which I called snakeyes, the ull and mslp looked like eyes lol

From what I saw if today's 13z suite so far it had t really improved like I thought it would

As noted by uts, the western ridge structure looks fantastic for a amplified closed off solution on the east coast
I will likely not be able to see this unbiasedly because it semi resembles one of my favorite storms of all time
Feb 10, 2010

So no matter what I look at I will want to see that system lol

Unfortunately 12z guidance did not step to what I'd like to see, though the ridge structure is still there for a closed ull to dance

More models and hopefully different solution to follow. :/


That was my least favorite storm.... went back and looked at my blog notes for that one. Everything pointed to getting a foot or more IMBY. We were at Loon Mt for this and had to arrange with our neighbors to shovel and them to use our garage and driveway. Here's what happened...

"results - 3 inches in danbury, 9 in White plains and Greenwich. 12-14 in NYC area and N Jersey. None in NH where we were. 10 in central park and 10.5 in DC. Entire east coast closed. Schools in Boston closed where no snow accumulated at all. Our offices closed in PHL, DC, NJ, NY, LI"



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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 13 2018, 01:19 PM
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At 72 Euro is favorable to yesterdays run. At 96, its not.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 13 2018, 01:21 PM
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Euro yesterday


Euro today


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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paletitsnow63
post Jan 13 2018, 01:25 PM
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12Z NAV starting at H102

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clindner00
post Jan 13 2018, 01:29 PM
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Those Nav images make me think that this might become a coastal scraper. I guess we shall see.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 13 2018, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(DCBlizzard @ Jan 13 2018, 10:43 AM) *
I am completely confused as I am sure are other members. Can we just either combine the two threads or delete one? Capital Weather Gang in DC is talking about a storm Tuesday 16th / Wednesday the 17th. Is this the storm everyone is referring to?

WPC discussion points to why there might be confusion - but I believe we've got this sorted out as well as can be


QUOTE
THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN EARLY-MIDWEEK WILL FEATURE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED E-CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH ALOFT AND AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH SETTLING WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN
US...DUG TO THE LEE OF A SHARP INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
. AMPLE ENERGY IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP DEVELOP SEVERAL COASTAL LOWS
THAT HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
ESPECIALLY NEW ENGLAND
.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


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Undertakerson
post Jan 13 2018, 01:41 PM
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As we see here, the first northern stream feature stays on its own (D3-4), the trailer piece (D5-?) permitted to also develop. The spatial aspect is critical here (as has been the case with many storms this season so far)

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MaineJay
post Jan 13 2018, 01:42 PM
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At first glance, I wasn't much impressed by the UKie, but it does drop this 26mb in 24 hours. Granted it's "late", but a strong storm is possible in this setup.

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MaineJay
post Jan 13 2018, 01:47 PM
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12z GEFS spaghetti shows the rather sizeable spread in the northern stream, along with in the inter mountain west.


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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2018, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 13 2018, 12:37 PM) *
WPC discussion points to why there might be confusion - but I believe we've got this sorted out as well as can be
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


Interesting they mention "several"


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Undertakerson
post Jan 13 2018, 01:56 PM
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And to verify the earlier comment about the CWG piece - they clearly are also looking at two (or more?) potentials next week. Note the reference to the northern stream feature I've been mentioning - that is prior thread's system

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And the second one is broken out under its own discussion/confidence level assessment

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital...m=.6b2dc7bae659



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Undertakerson
post Jan 13 2018, 01:59 PM
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And Sterling

.
QUOTE
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Alberta clipper will cross the area Tue-Tue night with snow showers
possible. The low and associated cdfnt will move offshore by 12Z
Wed. A mid-upper level trough over the Great Lks Tue will sharpen as
it crosses the mid-Atlc region Wed night.
Sfc cyclogenesis has been
indicated by Euro/GFS over the past few cycles with the Euro
remaining the more consistent model with respect to strength, track,
and timing of sfc and upper level features although on this latest
cycle the Euro trended drier and faster to move the low out to sea
Wed night.
A period of light snow remains possible Tue night through
Wed night with the best chances of accumulating snow over southeast
MD and the eastern shore. Turning brisk on Thu with a warming trend
expected to begin next Fri as heights begin to rise over the eastern
U.S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1


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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 13 2018, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 13 2018, 01:59 PM) *

Wow the eastern shore and lower southern Maryland is the place to be this winter with regard to accumulations as these areas have picked up much much more this season so far when compared to the rest of the state with exception to far western Maryland's mountains.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 03:11 PM
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18z nam is running

I can hardly watch

If mdbrs white whale is the Cumberland gap jump....

Then a captured and stalled mslp retro back into pa is mine. No matter how many harpoons I throw at this thing I'll never be able to reel it back in sad.gif



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