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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Current Tropical Season Weather _ Hurricane Jose

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 4 2017, 08:33 AM

A new invest for us to track.

94L;

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2017, LO, O, 2017083112, 9999999999, , 025, , , 2, METWATCH, , AL942017


Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 4 2017, 12:01 PM

12Z GFS:

This invest looks to be Jose.









Posted by: shane o mac Sep 4 2017, 12:11 PM

Ill be keeping a eye out on this one to i think we have a better chance giving the pattern the forecast to be in in this time period alot can change however but need something to keep mind off things !

Posted by: Its_Miller_A_Time Sep 4 2017, 12:11 PM

GFS says this storm stalls in the Atlantic while Irma does damage, then tracks up the east coast. It's way out, but worth watching.

Posted by: PSUweatherman Sep 4 2017, 12:13 PM

Another one

Posted by: stilko4 Sep 4 2017, 04:45 PM

QUOTE(PSUweatherman @ Sep 4 2017, 01:13 PM) *
Another one

It's fun when blizzards and snowstorms are back to back....not damaging hurricanes

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 4 2017, 07:47 PM


Posted by: MaineJay Sep 5 2017, 01:18 AM

WTF

Jose right on Irma's heels, this would be horrific for the virgin islands


Posted by: joseph507123 Sep 5 2017, 10:03 AM

Now a Tropical Storm

QUOTE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 051454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 39.1W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress
of Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 39.1 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a
movement toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jose
could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 5 2017, 11:46 PM

umm Jose on the 0z GFS:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 5 2017, 11:48 PM

Stays offshore though, unless for the far north like Nova Scotia maybe.

Posted by: jck221 Sep 5 2017, 11:54 PM

Jose looking dangerous at 240 hr out on the 00z:


Posted by: rdl89 Sep 6 2017, 12:01 AM

QUOTE(jck221 @ Sep 5 2017, 11:54 PM) *
Jose looking dangerous at 240 hr out on the 00z:




Following right behind Irma. I sure hope this doesn't happen.

Posted by: shane o mac Sep 6 2017, 10:31 AM

This is going to be a interesting week ahead , basically Jose is waiting for her big sister to move out and then Jose looks to hook with a trof and bring it close to the coast where is the question

Posted by: stretchct Sep 6 2017, 01:59 PM

I've seen Jose do loops, track out to sea, stall....

Not as critical to track yet. But keep an eye on it.

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 6 2017, 02:21 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 6 2017, 01:59 PM) *
I've seen Jose do loops, track out to sea, stall....

Not as critical to track yet. But keep an eye on it.



Agreed. Monitoring it is important.

And, the more west Irma goes, the more west Jose goes.

That indirect interaction is critical for the forecast for the same islands Irma is slamming.

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 6 2017, 02:27 PM

Jose becomes a hurricane as per this info below.

JOSE, AL, L, , , , , 12, 2017, HU, S, 2017083112, 9999999999, , 025, , , 3, WARNING, 2, AL122017

Should be updated on the NHC site soon.

Posted by: stilko4 Sep 6 2017, 03:45 PM

Now a hurricane as of 5pm update

Posted by: ontariolightning Sep 6 2017, 03:56 PM

This is a hurricane season for the record books.

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 6 2017, 04:30 PM

Jose ascends.

QUOTE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 062038
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose has continued to become better organized. Banding convection
has become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level
outflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the
presence of Hurricane Irma to the west. An eye-like dimple has
occasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon.
The initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB. There is no reason to believe that
the recent intensification trend will end soon. In fact, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of
intensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h. My forecast is
just shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by
the HWRF for the next 36 h. After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast
weakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model
consensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the
forecast.

A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery
indicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously
estimated. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Due to the
northward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been
adjusted in that direction for the first 48 h. However, the
reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should
continue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily
by the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should
cause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more
latitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting
that this turn may occur a little later than previously expected,
and have shifted westward a little bit. The new NHC forecast at 96
and 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is about a degree west of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 13.9N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.1N 51.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 16.4N 56.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 18.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 63.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Posted by: stretchct Sep 6 2017, 09:24 PM

Jose forecast to be major hurricane by late Friday, early Saturday, and go close to Barbuda. Unbelievable.




Posted by: rainstorm Sep 7 2017, 04:02 AM

Not so fast. Euro leaves it behind then it turns west.

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 7 2017, 06:45 AM

Irma, surprisingly, didn't really cool things off. SSTs seem to be readily fueling Jose. Concerning.

Talk about bullying away the dry air.

Posted by: joseph507123 Sep 7 2017, 10:11 AM

Path keeps moving west


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 7 2017, 10:45 AM

Ummm..... last frame of the 0z Euro last night.......
blink.gif

Posted by: joseph507123 Sep 7 2017, 12:42 PM

Nice eye and formation. I expect a major hurricane soon.


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 7 2017, 03:45 PM

Jose now a major hurricane at the 5pm update. Category 3 with 120mph winds:


 

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 7 2017, 03:58 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 7 2017, 04:45 PM) *
Jose now a major hurricane at the 5pm update. Category 3 with 120mph winds:

Saw that, HC!!

How many majors is the Atl basin going to spawn this season?

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 7 2017, 03:58 PM

Those poor islands of Barbuda, Antigua sad.gif

Posted by: WhiteChristmas Sep 7 2017, 04:45 PM

This one out to sea?

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 7 2017, 04:47 PM

I'll add the wide shot of Irma and Jose here as well


Posted by: Kuotations Sep 7 2017, 04:49 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 7 2017, 05:47 PM) *
I'll add the wide shot of Irma and Jose here as well



Just incredible. 2 major hurricanes back to back. Hopefully they evacuate everyone in Barbuda in time.

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 7 2017, 05:09 PM

Way to earlier but Jose's forecasted track starting to get a little closer to conus...

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 7 2017, 05:57 PM

QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 7 2017, 06:09 PM) *
Way to earlier but Jose's forecasted track starting to get a little closer to conus...

Closer - heck. This run actually makes LF in NE. Here we go again?

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 7 2017, 05:58 PM



Posted by: Weathertop Sep 7 2017, 05:58 PM

Noticed this on the 18z GFS run after Jose meanders throughout the Atlantic for awhile.


Wow UTS...you have that perfect timing thing down with a lot of posters. laugh.gif

Posted by: TC1 Sep 7 2017, 05:59 PM

Well, seems the GFS is trying to give people in the NE/Mid-Atlantic an ulcer... again.

(click)


Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 7 2017, 06:02 PM

QUOTE(Weathertop @ Sep 7 2017, 06:58 PM) *
Noticed this on the 18z GFS run after Jose meanders throughout the Atlantic for awhile.


Wow UTS...you have that perfect timing thing down with a lot of posters. laugh.gif

Sorry bout that. sad.gif

tongue.gif

Posted by: Weathertop Sep 7 2017, 06:06 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 7 2017, 07:02 PM) *
Sorry bout that. sad.gif

tongue.gif

Proud I could join the club. biggrin.gif
Wish it was a post about an upcoming blizzard rather than another potential US LF from a hurricane.

Posted by: njwx7 Sep 7 2017, 06:12 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 7 2017, 07:02 PM) *
Sorry bout that. sad.gif

tongue.gif



Posted by: rainstorm Sep 7 2017, 06:20 PM

Need to keep a close eye on Jose for sure. It will get left behind in a very favorable upper environment and could landfall on the east coast.

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 7 2017, 06:28 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 7 2017, 06:58 PM) *



yikes.

Posted by: njwx7 Sep 7 2017, 06:46 PM

Just to provide some outlook per the 12z EPS guidance:

1) Euro Control has Jose meandering in the central Atlantic for days before ultimately going OTS with no threat to CONUS. However, it does spawn what would be Hurricane Lee by day 10 which would have to be watched.

2) The majority of the remaining members of the EPS also show Jose meandering and looping in the central Atlantic. Many go out to sea, but a few threaten the CONUS.

3) The NHC, in their 5pm advisory, highlights both the lack of an obvious steering flow and the complete lack of model consensus in the long-term:

CODE
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite
imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center
of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and
SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However,
given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS
ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity
for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the
third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season
(Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common --
especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was
in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September
15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on
September 17.

In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued
intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants,
and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air
situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are
taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point.
After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with
most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally
lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid
intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry
air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about
24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in
intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper
level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of
Irma's upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a
little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear.

The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to
be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not
reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the
ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the
northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very
similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours --
roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the
multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes
weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to
diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The
forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model
consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker
exit to the east.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Carbin

NNNN


Obviously guidance this far out is a just a crapshoot, however, I think the key takeaway from this model cycle is that we should continue to keep an eye on Jose because conditions clearly are ripe to create and sustain tropical systems - and having a major hurricane sticking around in the Atlantic is a bit ominous.


Posted by: shane o mac Sep 7 2017, 07:33 PM

QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 7 2017, 08:46 PM) *
Just to provide some outlook per the 12z EPS guidance:

1) Euro Control has Jose meandering in the central Atlantic for days before ultimately going OTS with no threat to CONUS. However, it does spawn what would be Hurricane Lee by day 10 which would have to be watched.

2) The majority of the remaining members of the EPS also show Jose meandering and looping in the central Atlantic. Many go out to sea, but a few threaten the CONUS.

3) The NHC, in their 5pm advisory, highlights both the lack of an obvious steering flow and the complete lack of model consensus in the long-term:

CODE
ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Jose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite
imagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center
of a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and
SAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However,
given the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS
ADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity
for this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the
third major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season
(Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes
simultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common --
especially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was
in 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September
15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on
September 17.

In the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued
intensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants,
and Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air
situated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are
taking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point.
After that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with
most intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally
lies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid
intensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry
air to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about
24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in
intensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper
level low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of
Irma's upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a
little more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear.

The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to
be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not
reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the
ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the
northwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very
similar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours --
roughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the
multi-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes
weaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to
diverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The
forecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model
consensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker
exit to the east.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 52.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.6N 57.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 17.3N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.9N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.5N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 27.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Carbin

NNNN


Obviously guidance this far out is a just a crapshoot, however, I think the key takeaway from this model cycle is that we should continue to keep an eye on Jose because conditions clearly are ripe to create and sustain tropical systems - and having a major hurricane sticking around in the Atlantic is a bit ominous.


What about for Nova Scotia miss on the euro ensembles ?

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 7 2017, 08:01 PM

hmm, on the euro i saw it stops at 240hr with a high to the northwest and west...

wouldn't this tend to go north as modeled?

https://postimg.org/image/aug04r5lx/

Posted by: stilko4 Sep 7 2017, 08:34 PM

QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 7 2017, 09:01 PM) *
hmm, on the euro i saw it stops at 240hr with a high to the northwest and west...

wouldn't this tend to go north as modeled?

https://postimg.org/image/aug04r5lx/


There's another one after Jose.?.. we should just call this the "but wait, there's more" season.



Posted by: njwx7 Sep 7 2017, 08:53 PM

QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 7 2017, 08:33 PM) *
What about for Nova Scotia miss on the euro ensembles ?


There are hits on Nova Scotia as well...but not for for at least 12+ days - wouldn't put much stock in it at this point.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 7 2017, 11:41 PM

0z GFS has a big high pressure to the north and Jose in the Atlantic coming westward at 234.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 7 2017, 11:45 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 8 2017, 12:41 AM) *
0z GFS has a big high pressure to the north and Jose in the Atlantic coming westward at 234.

Looks to stay out in the Atlantic on this run, not sure for the far north like Nova Scotia though.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 7 2017, 11:51 PM

Jose stays well offshore on the 0z run because the high pressure was further east on this run.

Posted by: shane o mac Sep 8 2017, 01:08 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 8 2017, 01:51 AM) *
Jose stays well offshore on the 0z run because the high pressure was further east on this run.

Makes landfall in my backyard , mind you it wouldnt be a tropical storm i dont think by the time it got here .. but still another 10 days out so anything can and will happen .

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 8 2017, 07:33 AM

6z GFS is well OTS but then has Maria on Florida's door step in the long range.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 8 2017, 08:15 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 8 2017, 08:33 AM) *
6z GFS is well OTS but then has Maria on Florida's door step in the long range.

Yeah that there better not happen.... hour 384 well well into fantasy range.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 8 2017, 08:42 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 8 2017, 09:15 AM) *
Yeah that there better not happen.... hour 384 well well into fantasy range.


Looks like this upcoming storm ( not the strength, just like track )

Posted by: Burr@Work Sep 8 2017, 11:37 AM

Need to update the title for 150MPH.


000
WTNT32 KNHC 081452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...JOSE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 57.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Thomas and St. John.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 57.1 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will
pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after
that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure indicated by data from the aircraft is
942 mb (27.82 inches).


Posted by: Burr@Work Sep 8 2017, 11:39 AM

Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla - ouch



 

Posted by: shane o mac Sep 8 2017, 12:30 PM

12 z have it meandering and then hooking on incoming trof then out to sea .. but alot can change and will change .

Posted by: stilko4 Sep 8 2017, 03:24 PM

QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 8 2017, 01:30 PM) *
12 z have it meandering and then hooking on incoming trof then out to sea .. but alot can change and will change .

You sound like you want this to hit you.... I don't understand why. They're not fun

Posted by: stretchct Sep 8 2017, 03:33 PM

JMA has it moving west two previous frames

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 8 2017, 03:41 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Sep 8 2017, 04:24 PM) *
You sound like you want this to hit you.... I don't understand why. They're not fun


A cat 1 or 2 storm is fun

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 8 2017, 03:51 PM

Jose is now a Category 4 now:


Posted by: njwx7 Sep 8 2017, 04:24 PM

QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 8 2017, 04:41 PM) *
A cat 1 or 2 storm is fun


Fun? Why don't you ask how fun it was for the 53 people who died in NYC when Sandy hit. Or how about the thousands of people who had their homes damaged or destroyed. What's wrong with you?

Posted by: stilko4 Sep 8 2017, 04:36 PM

QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 8 2017, 04:41 PM) *
A cat 1 or 2 storm is fun

That's the most idiotic thing I've read, clearly you're not sane.

Posted by: shane o mac Sep 8 2017, 05:35 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Sep 8 2017, 05:24 PM) *
You sound like you want this to hit you.... I don't understand why. They're not fun

I wouldnt mind witnessing a hurricane , call me down all you want i dont wish devastation so i dont want people thinking im a bad person .. i dont wish death or any harm to anybody ! just love the science behind hurricanes and would love to witness one not a cat 5 or anything just a minor one .. I mean if that makes me a sick and bad person then so be it ..

AND ps how does this quote sound like i want a hurricane to hit me ?? ..

Back on topic the 18z gfs looks to be out to sea passing by Bermuda as a strong hurricane ..

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 8 2017, 06:39 PM

Hurricane Jose may impact the conus, too soon to tell. Some ensembles bring it perilously close.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 8 2017, 06:53 PM

18z gfs doesnt get it nearly as far east. Could be a threat.

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 8 2017, 08:17 PM

Yes, deaths do happen during tropical cyclones unfortunately and if you are in a place that is susceptible to storm surge, or the hurricane is strong, you should evacuate. However, the notion that weak hurricanes are death machines is a little overstated. Winter storms are far more deadly.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap03/nat_hazard.html

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 8 2017, 08:22 PM

QUOTE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near
latitude 16.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Jose is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin overnight and
continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of
Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based observations from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 8 2017, 08:28 PM

GEFS loves Jose near the coast https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090818&fh=12

Posted by: Burr@Work Sep 8 2017, 08:36 PM

Barbuda news: 60% of the residents are homeless after Irma, and now facing hurricane force winds tonight

https://antiguachronicle.net/nation-told-to-brace-for-adverse-weather-conditions-from-midnight-as-hurricane-jose-fast-approaches/

Posted by: njwx7 Sep 8 2017, 09:14 PM

QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 8 2017, 09:17 PM) *
Yes, deaths do happen during tropical cyclones unfortunately and if you are in a place that is susceptible to storm surge, or the hurricane is strong, you should evacuate. However, the notion that weak hurricanes are death machines is a little overstated. Winter storms are far more deadly.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap03/nat_hazard.html



Cool thanks.

Posted by: Burr@Work Sep 8 2017, 10:38 PM

11pm discussion excerpt:

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this
evening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than
previously estimated. An average of the aircraft's flight level
winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135
kt, making Jose very near category 5 strength. It is surprising
that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the
hurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the
last several hours.


And Public Advisory:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE EVEN STRONGER...
...ALMOST A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 59.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES




Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 8 2017, 10:42 PM

The things I think is, the more Irma goes west the more Jose comes west and hits the islands again.

Then as Irma fades away, Jose looks to not know what to do and where to go as an orphan he becomes. But then, after striving to find a purpose to pursue, it makes up his mind and ...


















... We will need to see the evolution of the atmosphere´s players and more 15 model runs from each model...

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 8 2017, 11:45 PM

Closer to land this run, should affect new England in a few frames:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 8 2017, 11:48 PM

and there ya go:

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 8 2017, 11:52 PM

Seems to scrap Cape Cod, and then landfalls in Maine.

Posted by: USCG AST Sep 8 2017, 11:56 PM

QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 9 2017, 12:52 AM) *
Seems to scrap Cape Cod, and then landfalls in Maine.

288 hrs out... Any thoughts?

Posted by: RochesterSnow Sep 8 2017, 11:59 PM

QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 8 2017, 06:35 PM) *
I wouldnt mind witnessing a hurricane , call me down all you want i dont wish devastation so i dont want people thinking im a bad person .. i dont wish death or any harm to anybody ! just love the science behind hurricanes and would love to witness one not a cat 5 or anything just a minor one .. I mean if that makes me a sick and bad person then so be it ..

AND ps how does this quote sound like i want a hurricane to hit me ?? ..

Back on topic the 18z gfs looks to be out to sea passing by Bermuda as a strong hurricane ..


This is Typhoon Dan.



I was in Typhoon Dan, a category 3 in 1999. It was pretty scary to be in at the time. Woke up in the middle of the night to a sound of a train going through the house (not literally). My family happened to live in a brick house at the time and it kept us pretty safe, but the flooding and damage surrounding us was not insignificant.

Would I recommend anyone experience it? No. Am I glad I did? Mostly yes, but while I saw it as a "cool storm" hundreds died, mostly offshore 'fish farms' that just disappeared overnight.

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 9 2017, 12:04 AM

QUOTE(USCG AST @ Sep 8 2017, 11:56 PM) *
288 hrs out... Any thoughts?



Not really.

Just seeing the models out put.

We need to wait Irma move out, as Jose will loop because Irma will get taken away by a trof and as a result the ridge over the Atlantic will get temporarily out of order, and thus Jose will be lost without steering currents.

I think that only after that we will be able to start to interpret the models better and then try to voice some kind of more "solid" opinion.

Posted by: USCG AST Sep 9 2017, 12:14 AM

QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 9 2017, 01:04 AM) *
Not really.

Just seeing the models out put.

We need to wait Irma move out, as Jose will loop because Irma will get taken away by a trof and as a result the ridge over the Atlantic will get temporarily out of order, and thus Jose will be lost without steering currents.

I think that only after that we will be able to start to interpret the models better and then try to voice some kind of more "solid" opinion.

Thanks for the reply brother.

Posted by: sak Sep 9 2017, 01:16 AM

Well, it *appears* Jose is going to pass north of the islands that were just crushed by Irma. Thankfully.

That would have been a humanitarian crisis that would be a bit different from one I've ever seen before.

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 9 2017, 04:18 AM

ECMWF ensembles



UKie ensembles geez, this is concerning


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=12L.2017&dtg=2017090900

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 9 2017, 04:28 AM

Another coup?



Posted by: MaineJay Sep 9 2017, 04:37 AM

UKie brings it into the Bahamas.




https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 9 2017, 05:38 AM


Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 9 2017, 05:45 AM



Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 9 2017, 05:47 AM





HWGA dry.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 9 2017, 05:48 AM


Posted by: MaineJay Sep 9 2017, 05:49 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 9 2017, 06:45 AM) *


Looks a lot like the ECMWF. no rest for the storm tracking weary.





Posted by: njwx7 Sep 9 2017, 06:21 AM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2017, 06:49 AM) *
Looks a lot like the ECMWF. no rest for the storm tracking weary.




The 00z Euro control, verbatim, does not threaten CONUS, however, it does hit Nova Scotia. Also, a lot of EPS members either come very close to or actually directly impact nearly the entire east coast - including Florida.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 9 2017, 06:33 AM

Going to be interesting.

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 9 2017, 06:32 AM

QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 9 2017, 07:21 AM) *
The 00z Euro control, verbatim, does not threaten CONUS, however, it does hit Nova Scotia. Also, a lot of EPS members either come very close to or actually directly impact nearly the entire east coast - including Florida.

Hr192 and 180 respectively - JMA has 981 just east of C Bahamas, NAV has 979 just to n/w of N Bahamas

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090900&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

Both are signaling further adjustment southward(s/w?) very well may manifest if future runs of the other global models.

Edit - as MJ posted earlier, UKM is already south and probably on the S side of guidance (out to Hr168) where it has the cyclone just s/w of T/C islands.

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 9 2017, 06:38 AM

QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 9 2017, 07:21 AM) *
The 00z Euro control, verbatim, does not threaten CONUS, however, it does hit Nova Scotia. Also, a lot of EPS members either come very close to or actually directly impact nearly the entire east coast - including Florida.



I lack access to anything other than what's freely available. But I thought the EPS control was recurving Irma before it really caught on. But I might be misremembering. smile.gif

Regardless, I put almost no weight in individual deterministic runs beyond D4.

Non stop tropical cyclone tracking. I'm exhausted.

Posted by: njwx7 Sep 9 2017, 06:56 AM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2017, 07:38 AM) *
I lack access to anything other than what's freely available. But I thought the EPS control was recurving Irma before it really caught on. But I might be misremembering. smile.gif

Regardless, I put almost no weight in individual deterministic runs beyond D4.

Non stop tropical cyclone tracking. I'm exhausted.


No your memory is still good! Last 4 runs of EPS has the control recurving OTS..00z was the first run that it hit Nova Scotia (at 969 mb mellow.gif ).

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 07:05 AM

6z GEFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017090906&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=456

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 07:45 AM

LOL
http://wjbq.com/early-models-suggest-hurricane-jose-will-be-a-direct-hit-on-new-england/

While the models are showing this, it's way too early to speculate what will happen. Heck, we still don't even know the exact path of Irma.

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 9 2017, 08:41 AM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2017, 04:18 AM) *
ECMWF ensembles

UKie ensembles geez, this is concerning


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=12L.2017&dtg=2017090900



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 9 2017, 04:28 AM) *
Another coup?





QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2017, 04:37 AM) *
UKie brings it into the Bahamas.




https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/



They seem to be pretty close.


Far out still, but indeed a legitimate threat.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 09:16 AM

I see business has now picked up in this thread since Irma is about to make landfall in the next day.

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 9 2017, 11:12 AM


Risk increasing further .

Posted by: Weathertop Sep 9 2017, 11:47 AM

12z GFS nearing coast of NJ ("Is NJ safe?")


Almost LF


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 12:11 PM

QUOTE(Weathertop @ Sep 9 2017, 12:47 PM) *
12z GFS nearing coast of NJ ("Is NJ safe?")


Almost LF


Okay then..... unsure.gif

Posted by: Burr@Work Sep 9 2017, 12:21 PM

QUOTE(Weathertop @ Sep 9 2017, 12:47 PM) *
12z GFS nearing coast of NJ ("Is NJ safe?")


Never! unsure.gif

Posted by: yamvmax Sep 9 2017, 12:49 PM

Latest gfs has Jose hitting Long island!

Posted by: longislander Sep 9 2017, 01:27 PM

This would be crazy if it verifies.

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 9 2017, 01:35 PM

12Z ECMWF;

Hour 144:


Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 9 2017, 01:39 PM

168:


Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 9 2017, 01:43 PM

192:


Posted by: LUCC Sep 9 2017, 01:43 PM

QUOTE(Weathertop @ Sep 9 2017, 12:47 PM) *
12z GFS nearing coast of NJ ("Is NJ safe?")


Almost LF


WTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! blink.gif

Posted by: longislander Sep 9 2017, 01:46 PM

That Bermuda high is relentless, unless that gives up - anything goes for this one on the east coast.

Posted by: joseph507123 Sep 9 2017, 01:50 PM


Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 9 2017, 01:55 PM

216:


Posted by: longislander Sep 9 2017, 01:54 PM

GFS is s direct hit on NYC on 9-19.

Posted by: Beers1 Sep 9 2017, 01:59 PM

Seems GFS and Euro are really close for 10 days out. Won't put much stock in this yet. Concerning though that both models are very close

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 02:00 PM

240 too close for comfort.

Posted by: NorEaster07 Sep 9 2017, 02:05 PM

Another one to track?

GFS12z left. Euro12z right



Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 02:27 PM

Euro and GFS threatens our area with Jose

Posted by: njwx7 Sep 9 2017, 03:06 PM

12z EPS control is a hit just south of OBX. Ens members are still all over the place, with several CONUS hits...may be a real threat to keep an eye out over the next few weeks

Posted by: stretchct Sep 9 2017, 04:01 PM

Great...




Though accuweather has it at 978, but that wouldn't jive with the winds.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 9 2017, 05:09 PM

A concern to be sure.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 05:09 PM

18z GFS now where does it go from here:

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 9 2017, 05:14 PM

Found a treasure trove of links here
http://www.hfip.org/related_links/

One is this one

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?stm=12L.2017&dtg=2017090912

Red line is deterministic, green is the mean

UKie ensembles


ECMWF ensembles

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 9 2017, 05:24 PM

Looks like 18z GFS is headed OTS.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 05:26 PM

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 9 2017, 06:24 PM) *
Looks like 18z GFS is headed OTS.

Still close though:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 05:37 PM

Now making a turn towards the coast ala Sandy:

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 9 2017, 05:44 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 9 2017, 06:37 PM) *
Now making a turn towards the coast ala Sandy:

Stops and does head OTS. Just a weird looking run overall.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 05:45 PM

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 9 2017, 06:44 PM) *
Stops and does head OTS. Just a weird looking run overall.

Just a way way too close to the coast run there.

Posted by: stxprowl Sep 9 2017, 06:26 PM


Posted by: stretchct Sep 9 2017, 08:05 PM

Just a dose of reality here. This was the gfs run at hour 216 for Irma.


Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 9 2017, 10:20 PM

Something to track is better than nothing to track biggrin.gif

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 11:02 PM

More south and stronger through 108 on the GFS. Blocking high in the atlantic holding strong.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:02 PM

So by Thursday were looking at this:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:07 PM

This better start to turn in a bit or....

Posted by: stxprowl Sep 9 2017, 11:13 PM

I just hope we're lucky enough to be able to track as many big snowstorms this season as we have hurricanes this season! Whose with me? Also I guess GFS goes to Hatteras this run.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:18 PM

QUOTE(stxprowl @ Sep 10 2017, 12:13 AM) *
I just hope we're lucky enough to be able to track as many big snowstorms this season as we have hurricanes this season! Whose with me? Also I guess GFS goes to Hatteras this run.

It's eyeing that area up, we shall see.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:22 PM

Going away from Hatteras now:

Posted by: TC1 Sep 9 2017, 11:25 PM

Energy left from Irma over West Virginia refuses to go away. It's been there for days on this run.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:27 PM

Which way does he go from here, hard to believe we could be looking at this a week from now.


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:31 PM

It's not moving much either:



Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 9 2017, 11:31 PM

Looks like he's turning back toward NC.


Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 11:32 PM

Here comes the hook at 210

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017091000&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=471

Posted by: stxprowl Sep 9 2017, 11:32 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 10 2017, 12:27 AM) *
Which way does he go from here, hard to believe we could be looking at this a week from now.


Another loop?

What sits on the bottom of the cold Arctic Ocean and shakes?
A nervous wreck.

source: http://jokes4us.com/miscellaneousjokes/weatherjokes/winterjokes.html
That's so cool it sourced it when I copied it. Lol

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:33 PM

Just scraping NC:

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 11:35 PM

Heading North at 216 towards NYC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091000&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=471

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:34 PM

and it goes due west from the last frame:

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 9 2017, 11:37 PM

Just sitting off the NC coast.


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:37 PM

Basically doesn't move and strengthens. Another slow moving Hurricane near land. blink.gif


Moves north some:

Posted by: TC1 Sep 9 2017, 11:38 PM

I could be wrong, but at the 250mb level, there looks to be a kicking dip moving in from the storm's northwest.

Also is that the jet stream level?

Posted by: stxprowl Sep 9 2017, 11:39 PM

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:37 AM) *
Just sitting off the NC coast.


The beach erosion would be nuts

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 9 2017, 11:39 PM

Bit of a move to the northeast.


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:41 PM

NYC in trouble on this run.

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 9 2017, 11:41 PM


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:42 PM

This won't end well:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:43 PM

and it hooks left:


Do not want here:

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 9 2017, 11:43 PM

And enter stage left.



Posted by: NwsScott Sep 9 2017, 11:45 PM

Ukmet looks to be nearing Florida.

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 9 2017, 11:45 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 10 2017, 12:41 AM) *
NYC in trouble on this run.


I don't pay much attention to the gfs beyond 3 days. Ukmet has a bigger risk to Florida than Gfs. I concur .

Posted by: TC1 Sep 9 2017, 11:46 PM

So at no point, for several days, does anything come along to move Jose at anything other than a meandering crawl?

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 9 2017, 11:47 PM



Trough lifting ne, this looks to be a Florida hit . Ecmwf will probably arrive with fireworks at 2am, worth waiting .

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 9 2017, 11:46 PM

QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 10 2017, 12:45 AM) *
I don't pay much attention to the gfs beyond 3 days. Ukmet has a bigger risk to Florida than Gfs. I concur .

So you think Florida is in for a double whammy? East side this time I would think if that happens. unsure.gif

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 11:48 PM

This is a Sun- Wednesday storm on the GFS

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 11:48 PM

QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 10 2017, 12:47 AM) *


Trough lifting ne, this looks to be a Florida hit . Ecmwf will probably arrive with fireworks at 2am, worth waiting .


It is quite simliar to the GFS

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 9 2017, 11:49 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 10 2017, 12:46 AM) *
So you think Florida is in for a double whammy? East side this time I would think if that happens. unsure.gif

Yes. I think another landfall risk in October as well with the typical western Caribbean development like Matthew , Hazel, Wilma, Sandy. La nina forming means an active October.

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 9 2017, 11:52 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:48 AM) *
It is quite simliar to the GFS

Correct but you note the Gfs does the typical polarward bias . That wont occur with the trough lifting out.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 9 2017, 11:54 PM

Just for the record, the CMC keeps Jose pretty far from any land, with the exception of Bermuda. That island gets a solid grazing.

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 9 2017, 11:55 PM


12z Jma has Jose into North Carolina as a decent hurricane.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 9 2017, 11:58 PM

QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 10 2017, 12:52 AM) *
Correct but you note the Gfs does the typical polarward bias . That wont occur with the trough lifting out.


Agree
QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:54 AM) *
Just for the record, the CMC keeps Jose pretty far from any land, with the exception of Bermuda. That island gets a solid grazing.


CMC is way west of 12z though

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 12:41 AM

And the Euro is running. Wonder where it'll send Jose on this run.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 01:31 AM

Hours 0-144...

(click)



For the most part, it's farther east through much of the run thus far when compared to 12z. Sometimes northeast, south-southeast or due east, but east nonetheless. It's only at hour 144 that it goes southwest of the 12z a bit. Now we see where it says Jose is to go.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 01:37 AM

Hour 168...



11mb stronger and a touch southwest of 18z.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 01:43 AM

Hour 192...




A noticeable jump east on this frame, and 2mb weaker, when compared to the 18z.

Posted by: risingriver Sep 10 2017, 01:46 AM

QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 10 2017, 02:43 AM) *
Hour 192...




A noticeable jump east on this frame, and 2mb weaker, when compared to the 18z.


Clearly Jose has forgotten where he left his bottle.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 01:49 AM

Hour 216...



Well northeast of, and 3mb stronger than, 18z. Now the question is, does Jose get caught and pulled into New England, or get kicked away?

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 02:15 AM

Hour 240...



And right up into Maine as a 960mb storm. I imagine it wouldn't be a hurricane anymore by that point, but it would still likely pack a punch as it came onshore at MaineJay's house.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 04:46 AM

The GFS is up and running. Yesterday, we had four runs and four different outcomes. What will today bring?

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 05:10 AM

QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 10 2017, 05:46 AM) *
The GFS is up and running. Yesterday, we had four runs and four different outcomes. What will today bring?

Geez, a guy is away for one day and misses all kind of shenanigans.

I just hope the GFS is as accurate with this one at this much lead time, as it was with Irma rolleyes.gif I did not like that one that brought the cyclone so close to NJ/PA

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 05:14 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 06:10 AM) *
Geez, a guy is away for one day and misses all kind of shenanigans.

I just hope the GFS is as accurate with this one at this much lead time, as it was with Irma rolleyes.gif I did not like that one that brought the cyclone so close to NJ/PA


That's why you're supposed to have a tab open for this site/thread at all times on all devices. Otherwise, you get left behind wink.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 05:15 AM

QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 10 2017, 06:14 AM) *
That's why you're supposed to have a tab open for this site/thread at all times on all devices. Otherwise, you get left behind wink.gif

Yeah - I am not worthy. sad.gif

laugh.gif

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 05:40 AM

Well, a fifth solution.

(click)



Energy left behind by Irma catches up to Jose a bit quicker and farther east than past runs. But instead of the two doing a dance, it slows Jose down and then he appears to drift out to sea. But, that trough-like dip catches up to him at hour 240. Will he get kicked away or pulled in?

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 05:48 AM

OK. That was... odd.

(click)



That dip catches Jose and makes him do a 180º turn so it's heading back toward Cape Hatteras... like it was in zero gravity or something blink.gif

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 10 2017, 05:51 AM

MOGREPS


EPS


https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?deltaxsize=-200&dtg=2017091000&stm=12L.2017&model=ncep&tau=loop.gif&plt=hit&ptype=

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 05:52 AM

And finally, Jose just... drifts southward.

(click)



When did the Atlantic become an air hockey table?

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 05:54 AM

QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 10 2017, 06:52 AM) *
And finally, Jose just... drifts southward.

(click)



When did the Atlantic become an air hockey table?

Bizarro run. I think I counted three different troughs that tried to totally capture Jose. Two of them actually do wrangle it in, but can't hold on, it seems.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 10 2017, 05:58 AM

I think that run can be ignored, lol

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 06:00 AM



Posted by: risingriver Sep 10 2017, 06:17 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 07:00 AM) *


that model can't be ignored.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 06:36 AM

Oh, and the Drunk Uncle? It keeps Jose meandering in the Atlantic the entire time, only threatening Bermuda as it scrapes by the island on September 17.

Posted by: stretchct Sep 10 2017, 08:41 AM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043 with 110mph gust

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 09:33 AM

Over night runs were more offshore with the Euro crashing into New England. We will have a better handle on Jose once Irma starts to weaken and move inland.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 10:13 AM

NHC cone for Jose
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:00 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 10 2017, 11:13 AM) *
NHC cone for Jose
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

That is one messy cone. laugh.gif

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:01 AM

12z GFS post loop de loop:

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 11:11 AM

West through 138 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=472

Stronger Atlantic ridge

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:12 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:11 PM) *
West through 138 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=472

Stronger Atlantic ridge

Will be closer if not landfall this run compared to 6z:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:12 AM

Turning north now:

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 11:16 AM

A lot further west through 150 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=472

Looks like the 0z GFS so far

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:17 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:16 PM) *
A lot further west through 150 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=472

Looks like the 0z GFS so far

Going to be close for the outer banks if not over them:

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 11:18 AM

Jose is interacting more with the remnants of Irma on this run

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 10 2017, 11:19 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:16 PM) *
A lot further west through 150 on the GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017091012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=472

Looks like the 0z GFS so far


North Carolina bound on gfs.

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 10 2017, 11:20 AM


Bermuda high merges with se canada high.

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 10 2017, 11:21 AM

Could get close to the NC coast.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:23 AM

Closing in:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:25 AM

May just scrape the coast of NC and bypass the rest of NC:

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 10 2017, 11:25 AM

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:21 PM) *
Could get close to the NC coast.

Close but staying away. Moving NE at this point.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:28 AM

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:25 PM) *
Close but staying away. Moving NE at this point.

Watch out for that left hook 0z had.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:28 AM


Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:28 AM

QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 10 2017, 12:19 PM) *
North Carolina bound on gfs.

Irma- early runs were Maine, then we saw the Chesapeake runs, then Carolinas.

We seem to be in a similarly patterned theme here. Yet H5 northern jet does not show the same "flat line" look, only sending weak troughs - now seems that those troughs have more depth.

Could just be me, but this seems to be the way GFS has been handling upper air lately.

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 10 2017, 11:29 AM



This is a capture look. No where to go but be captured. Alarming.

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:29 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 10 2017, 12:28 PM) *
Watch out for that left hook 0z had.

As usual, trough timing and interaction mean much.


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:30 AM

Gaining strength:

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:31 AM

An - Uh Oh run for MidAtl?



Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 11:32 AM

Hooking left at 204 ohmy.gif

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:32 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 12:31 PM) *
An - Uh Oh run for MidAtl?



The way this summer has gone this is the last thing we need. sad.gif

Posted by: Astella2 Sep 10 2017, 11:33 AM

Trough making connection and pulling storm into north east....This season has been just insane

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:33 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:32 PM) *
Hooking left at 204 ohmy.gif

Pulled a little east next frame:

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:35 AM


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:35 AM

Northeast now:

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:36 AM

If it's gonna hook, now would be the time



Posted by: Astella2 Sep 10 2017, 11:37 AM


Posted by: NwsScott Sep 10 2017, 11:38 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 12:36 PM) *
If it's gonna hook, now would be the time




It is gona hook. 100%

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:38 AM

Avoids our area UTS. but it's going to crush New England this run:

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:38 AM

Very close call for major metro areas, CT,RI Mass would still not go unscathed.



Posted by: NwsScott Sep 10 2017, 11:39 AM



Perhaps shades of hurricane Bob/ Edna .

Posted by: Astella2 Sep 10 2017, 11:39 AM

Guess its all about Trough strength and timing ( as usual)...should be interesting tracking this rollercoaster of a storm the next few days

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:39 AM

QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 10 2017, 12:38 PM) *
It is gona hook. 100%

With that look - it had better or else GFS is defying the nature of the set up.

Posted by: Phased Vort Sep 10 2017, 11:40 AM

Oh UTS....



Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:40 AM

QUOTE(Astella2 @ Sep 10 2017, 12:39 PM) *
Guess its all about Trough strength and timing ( as usual)...should be interesting tracking this rollercoaster of a storm the next few days

It's going to be a long week plus. As if we haven't been tracking something for weeks on end now. tongue.gif

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 10 2017, 11:40 AM

Slams the NE.


Posted by: Astella2 Sep 10 2017, 11:40 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 10 2017, 12:40 PM) *
It's going to be a long week plus. As if we haven't been tracking something for weeks on end now. tongue.gif

If this is any indication for the winter, we are never going to sleep again

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:41 AM

Now it hooks:





Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:41 AM

A bit later than I thought but there's the hook



Posted by: NwsScott Sep 10 2017, 11:42 AM

Major hit to Boston/ New England on Gfs.
This is one of the hurricane Bob/Carol/ Edna type tracks. Now a day would be a very costly storm. The 38/ Sandy type track is the worst case imaginable though . This Gfs track and I don't like using the Gfs is still a costly storm.

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 11:45 AM

QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 10 2017, 12:40 PM) *
Oh UTS....



I know. But I shall not worry because I'm on the "good side" of the storm wink.gif

But in all seriousness, I'm not biting on this kind of deal. Not when the GFS had Irma hitting NC at similar lead time.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 11:46 AM

This is similiar to the Euro
Euro slammed New England

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 11:50 AM

Check out the Ukmet

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

Very close to Florida

Posted by: USCG AST Sep 10 2017, 11:59 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 12:38 PM) *
Very close call for major metro areas, CT,RI Mass would still not go unscathed.



I have a hard time believing, verbatim, this doesn't get drawn in for a left turn. That being said, lots of time on this.

Posted by: USCG AST Sep 10 2017, 12:00 PM

QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 10 2017, 12:42 PM) *
Major hit to Boston/ New England on Gfs.
This is one of the hurricane Bob/Carol/ Edna type tracks. Now a day would be a very costly storm. The 38/ Sandy type track is the worst case imaginable though . This Gfs track and I don't like using the Gfs is still a costly storm.

You still thinking Florida?

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 12:01 PM

QUOTE(USCG AST @ Sep 10 2017, 01:00 PM) *
You still thinking Florida?


Florida is a possibility if the ridge is as strong as it is now with Irma

Posted by: scooz Sep 10 2017, 12:01 PM

You guys are gunna drive yourselves nuts going run to run on this type of setup this far out lol

Posted by: Ryan Duff Sep 10 2017, 12:18 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 12:41 PM) *
A bit later than I thought but there's the hook




Oooo. Binary interaction. wink.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 12:45 PM

QUOTE(scooz @ Sep 10 2017, 01:01 PM) *
You guys are gunna drive yourselves nuts going run to run on this type of setup this far out lol

We've become quite adept to watching all the runs - even further out, and not going "nuts" - thank you.

Well except for rtcemc, I fear we may have lost him long ago (weather models or not) tongue.gif

Posted by: NwsScott Sep 10 2017, 01:31 PM



Hurricane Jeanne on the Jma, just what they need. sad.gif

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 01:33 PM

Something seems very wrong with this Euro run

At 0z it was a big hurricane, on the 12z run, it's a 1000mb low.

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 10 2017, 01:40 PM

maybe it gets sheared apart?? I know there was shear in the area..

Posted by: stretchct Sep 10 2017, 01:46 PM

This is what the wind gusts look like from the 12z gfs.


Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 10 2017, 01:56 PM

OTS unless it hooks. It really gains strength up here. WTF.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 10 2017, 01:58 PM

Could you post a map?

Posted by: shane o mac Sep 10 2017, 02:03 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 10 2017, 03:56 PM) *
OTS unless it hooks. It really gains strength up here. WTF.

Looks like its aiming right towards me ! wink.gif

Posted by: stilko4 Sep 10 2017, 02:04 PM

QUOTE(shane o mac @ Sep 10 2017, 03:03 PM) *
Looks like its aiming right towards me ! wink.gif

You can have it.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 10 2017, 02:08 PM

no maps to post?

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 10 2017, 02:13 PM

@rainstorm, maps are available at tropicaltidbits.com.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017091012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=2

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 10 2017, 02:20 PM

Corollary model.


Posted by: so_whats_happening Sep 10 2017, 02:38 PM

Biggest issue I see with this is how irma moves from here on out. All models last minute were projecting up the whole west coast and now we are seeing landfall in marco island and looks ot be slightly inland from there north unless we start to really cut in.

If this energy goes north rather quickly it may help reload the ridging in the Atlantic and push jose east but pure speculation at this point unfortunately have not had much time with jose will though probably starting tomorrow.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 10 2017, 02:40 PM

QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ Sep 10 2017, 03:13 PM) *
@rainstorm, maps are available at tropicaltidbits.com.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017091012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=2



thanks.

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 10 2017, 02:54 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 10 2017, 02:46 PM) *
This is what the wind gusts look like from the 12z gfs.



That'd put me in the right front, I'll pass.


UKmet track

Posted by: risingriver Sep 10 2017, 03:02 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 01:45 PM) *
We've become quite adept to watching all the runs - even further out, and not going "nuts" - thank you.

Well except for rtcemc, I fear we may have lost him long ago (weather models or not) tongue.gif


Hey, who you calling normal? smile.gif I'm nuts and quite happy with the insanity. You don't suffer from a mental disorder; you seem to thrive on it. laugh.gif

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 03:02 PM

The 12z NAVGEM at the end of the loop...

(click)



It actually misses all of the islands and the CONUS (at least, up to hour 180 anyway).

Posted by: TC1 Sep 10 2017, 03:04 PM

The 12z JMA...


Posted by: psu1313 Sep 10 2017, 03:28 PM

I'm just glad I don't own coastal property. All these threats have to be hair-raising. After watching the ridge with Irma, I might throw a little more weight towards those models that keep this closer to the coast, but let's take a better look when Irma gets inland and Jose finishes 180 degrees of his loop.

Posted by: snowlover2 Sep 10 2017, 05:36 PM

18z GFS has it headed to Maine.


Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 10 2017, 05:38 PM

https://postimg.org/image/4qn6k4qed/

new england scraper this run, may make land fall in maine

Posted by: stxprowl Sep 10 2017, 05:47 PM





Posted by: hockeypuck Sep 10 2017, 05:53 PM

That is awesome

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDRrjFjJ9fI

Posted by: stretchct Sep 10 2017, 05:59 PM

18z gfs run

Those are 850mb winds, thankfully its a smaller storm.

Posted by: stilko4 Sep 10 2017, 06:05 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 10 2017, 06:59 PM) *
18z gfs run

Those are 850mb winds, thankfully its a smaller storm.

If fakes left near jersey, goes right, cuts back left to land. It's got more moves then my jets.

Posted by: longislander Sep 10 2017, 07:32 PM

QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 10 2017, 02:31 PM) *


Hurricane Jeanne on the Jma, just what they need. sad.gif


Jeanne? What's Jeanne, I though this was Jose?

Posted by: enigmamj Sep 10 2017, 07:45 PM

NHC seems to think it will weaken significantly over the next couple days. Largely do to wind shear. Perhaps we get lucky and the system falls apart.

Posted by: USCG AST Sep 10 2017, 07:53 PM

QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Sep 10 2017, 06:36 PM) *
18z GFS has it headed to Maine.


I mean, it's a great track for snow..

Posted by: USCG AST Sep 10 2017, 07:55 PM

QUOTE(longislander @ Sep 10 2017, 08:32 PM) *
Jeanne? What's Jeanne, I though this was Jose?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Jeanne

Posted by: rtcemc Sep 10 2017, 08:28 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 10 2017, 01:45 PM) *
We've become quite adept to watching all the runs - even further out, and not going "nuts" - thank you.

Well except for rtcemc, I fear we may have lost him long ago (weather models or not) tongue.gif

Hurtful. Accurate, but hurtful rolleyes.gif

Posted by: GreatWhiteTornado Sep 10 2017, 09:29 PM

Hurricane Jose model tracks, hmmm this helps

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 09:37 PM

QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Sep 10 2017, 10:29 PM) *
Hurricane Jose model tracks, hmmm this helps

Yeah, gotta wait till after it makes it's loop.

Posted by: Qdeathstar Sep 10 2017, 09:50 PM

QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Sep 10 2017, 10:29 PM) *
Hurricane Jose model tracks, hmmm this helps



it even looks like a hurricane!

Posted by: enigmamj Sep 10 2017, 10:44 PM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Sep 10 2017, 10:37 PM) *
Yeah, gotta wait till after it makes it's loop.


Yep. Also to see if it can stay somewhat organised as well. It may be taking a beating while it does its loop. Wind shear is supposed to continue for a few days. Reading the NHC discussion, they do have it strengthening slightly again at Day 4 or 5 but have rather low confidence in that at the moment.


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 10:59 PM

Loop done here it comes:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:04 PM


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:11 PM


Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:14 PM

Going due north:

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:21 PM

Getting closer to the Carolinas, so far this run is slower then 18z was.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:27 PM

Strengthening, heading northeast for now

Posted by: Astella2 Sep 10 2017, 11:30 PM

Looks like too much ridging over the east coast/NE Canada on this run for a hit

Posted by: Astella2 Sep 10 2017, 11:33 PM


looks to be sitting off the coast from 192-210 with very little movement. Looks to be going extra tropical and expanding by this point

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:33 PM

QUOTE(Astella2 @ Sep 11 2017, 12:30 AM) *
Looks like too much ridging over the east coast/NE Canada on this run for a hit

Turning back to due north here:

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 10 2017, 11:34 PM

QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Sep 10 2017, 10:29 PM) *
Hurricane Jose model tracks, hmmm this helps

HMON needs to seek professional help. Seriously.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:37 PM

Another New England or Maine hit here coming I think:

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 10 2017, 11:38 PM

With as much as some people were hyping for Irma to hit the Northeast, you'd think this thread would be hopping more.

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:40 PM

Headed for Maine here

Posted by: phillyfan Sep 10 2017, 11:43 PM

Just skirts by:

Posted by: njwx7 Sep 11 2017, 12:40 AM

00z Ukie



Hr 144...would be terrible for FL

Posted by: TC1 Sep 11 2017, 12:50 AM

A shortened version of the Drunk Uncle...

(click)



Misses the CONUS, gets Bermuda with a solid grazing and then... ready for this?... has Jose spawn a new cyclone. It wasn't an unbelievable run until it went and made Jose and Irma spawn a child.

Not saying that last bit couldn't happen, but I imagine the chances of it are pretty small.

Posted by: TC1 Sep 11 2017, 03:07 AM

The 0z Euro...

(click)



Overall, kind of like the 0z Drunk Uncle in not hitting the CONUS with its path (sans the mini storm spawning), but it misses Bermuda as well.

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 11 2017, 03:36 AM


Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 11 2017, 04:29 AM

This is well west of the12z run from yesterday.


Posted by: RochesterSnow Sep 11 2017, 04:30 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 11 2017, 12:38 AM) *
With as much as some people were hyping for Irma to hit the Northeast, you'd think this thread would be hopping more.


I think hurricane fatigue is fast becoming reality. Two major storms in less than a month, with a possible 3rd? Let's get a chance to finish working on ONE disaster lol.

Posted by: stretchct Sep 11 2017, 05:54 AM

QUOTE(RochesterSnow @ Sep 11 2017, 05:30 AM) *
I think hurricane fatigue is fast becoming reality. Two major storms in less than a month, with a possible 3rd? Let's get a chance to finish working on ONE disaster lol.

yes

Posted by: SnowMan11 Sep 11 2017, 06:08 AM

GFS has Jose right into the Delmarva at 6z

Posted by: TC1 Sep 11 2017, 06:11 AM

6z GFS...



Hits OBX as what looks like a CAT 4, drifts into the Delmarva area and dies off quickly. Not sure what pulled it inland since what was left of Irma was to its northeast.

Posted by: rainstorm Sep 11 2017, 06:29 AM

Moves very slowly from hour 192-216 from hatteras to near DC.

Posted by: psu1313 Sep 11 2017, 06:49 AM

QUOTE(rainstorm @ Sep 11 2017, 07:29 AM) *
Moves very slowly from hour 192-216 from hatteras to near DC.


That just looks strange. Going inland at Duck, NC would be some sort of trick. This would be devastating for the OBX and the Hampton Roads/Norfolk/VA Beach areas.

 

Posted by: avsguy01 Sep 11 2017, 08:35 AM

Lookimg to watch a shift west over the week? That Atlantic high is persistent. If may build back in pushing Jose further to the coast. I'm certainly not letting my guard down for the mid Atlantic area.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 11 2017, 08:37 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 10 2017, 11:38 PM) *
With as much as some people were hyping for Irma to hit the Northeast, you'd think this thread would be hopping more.

lol, is it winter yet

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