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> Hurricane Jose, 9/17 5PM EDT CAT 1 - 90 MPH - 967mb - Movement: N @ 9mph
yamvmax
post Sep 13 2017, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 13 2017, 02:26 PM) *
Good afternoon gentlemen.

Is there anything I could do to help you resolve and stop whatīs shown above?

I would be glad to help.

I guess ban me. Idiot was a strong, probably misspoke word. I wasn't trying to insult anyone here, but can understand it rereading my post. I will delete it.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 01:38 PM
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ Sep 13 2017, 01:30 PM) *
I guess ban me. Idiot was a strong, probably misspoke word. I wasn't trying to insult anyone here, but can understand it rereading my post. I will delete it.



Thanks for your honesty and cooperation.

Itīs much appreciated. smile.gif

I invite you to continue having a healthy part in and contributing to this elucidating discussion about Jose.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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JDClapper
post Sep 13 2017, 01:40 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 13 2017, 02:26 PM) *
Good afternoon gentlemen.

Is there anything I could do to help you resolve and stop whatīs shown above?

I would be glad to help.


Deletion.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34ž"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7ž"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17―"


** "MoM" Certified **
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 01:44 PM
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The 12Z ECMWF run today is super slow.

Still on hour 48.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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shane o mac
post Sep 13 2017, 01:46 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 13 2017, 03:44 PM) *
The 12Z ECMWF run today is super slow.

Still on hour 48.

12z Euro is delayed due to issues at ECMWF
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MD Blue Ridge
post Sep 13 2017, 01:49 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 13 2017, 02:44 PM) *
The 12Z ECMWF run today is super slow.

Still on hour 48.


JMA style. JMA begins run at noon, finishes in February.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 01:53 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Sep 13 2017, 01:49 PM) *
JMA style. JMA begins run at noon, finishes in February.



Agreed.

Lust like that.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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ionizer
post Sep 13 2017, 01:57 PM
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QUOTE(TommyN @ Sep 13 2017, 11:57 AM) *
<---- Still in NJ and still not nervous lol


hi neighbor from a town over....head on down route 79 and say hi

...actually they are doing construction on 79 to finally repair how bad it has become
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ionizer
post Sep 13 2017, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(Skeeter @ Sep 13 2017, 12:40 PM) *
One of those variables is (yes, weather fans, I know you don't like this one...) hurricanes do what hurricanes do - they can make their own weather and let the models try to catch up. If you have never heard this from a seasoned forecaster, you need to talk to more seasoned forecasters. You can "trust" a hurricane to follow its upper level guidance when its either totally dissipated (which is more than just turning into a bunch of random thunderstorms moving together) - or when it's totally gone from your area.

I remember a late 80's tropical that followed the upper level flow doggedly, slowly weakening as it recurved NE up the Atlantic coast, going extratropical. Then it made a NEerly beeline for the Azores - just as the upper level flow guided it to do. And then, when it was about 300 miles west of the Azores it stopped and spun there. And spun. And spun. Backed up about 50nm, then shot north, then east and slammed Ireland and the central UK with 80kt winds as it screamed through to the North Sea. Model guidance is good - gets better every year, but don't EVER believe that a tropical will always follow the models. Models are just an approximation of the environment. That means they aren't perfect reflections of it. You still have to play the "games".


isn't that just a nice way of saying "my methodology of prediction and modelling is not properly able to account for all aspects and thus it isn't that hurricanes have a mind of their own, it is that our means for capturing all impacts is insufficient"
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ionizer
post Sep 13 2017, 02:01 PM
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so continuing the trend of being back on topic...


....where and when does Irma exit stage right such that focus on Jose is not impacted by it any more and more definitive (think 75% probability) will be clearer on whether Jose is NE impacting or OTS? Friday? later?
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LUCC
post Sep 13 2017, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 13 2017, 02:38 PM) *
Thanks for your honesty and cooperation.

Itīs much appreciated. smile.gif

I invite you to continue having a healthy part in and contributing to this elucidating discussion about Jose.

Ban him!!!!!


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 02:13 PM
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12Z JMA, places Jose just south of Long Island, and then it makes a sharp ENE curve out to sea.



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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 02:15 PM
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12Z ECMWF frame 96, has Jose between Bermuda and the coast of east central North Carolina.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 02:20 PM
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Looking more east...could it hook...



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5");
Total: 1.5"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 02:21 PM
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blink.gif


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5");
Total: 1.5"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 02:22 PM
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On from 168, 12Z ECMWF hooks Jose NE almost into Long Island.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 02:26 PM
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And there he goes heading towards Jersey shore.


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5");
Total: 1.5"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 02:28 PM
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See that area of lower heights/lower pressure (like a weakness), going towards the northern Mid Atlantic and Long Island between the blue lines I drew, that attracts Jose towards the coast.

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Sep 13 2017, 02:30 PM
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Pretty similar to the 00Z run.

May we consider two ECMWF runs in a roll throwing Jose towards the northern Mid Atlantic.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Black05GSR
post Sep 13 2017, 02:31 PM
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And landfall in Cape May


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5");
Total: 1.5"

NJ -
Total: 0"
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