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> Jan. 8th-11th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Observations, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Solstice
post Dec 28 2017, 05:53 PM
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First non-observation thread for me... take it easy please! laugh.gif

BSR
QUOTE
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SOI
QUOTE
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GFS Runs
QUOTE
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This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 8 2018, 10:54 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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JDClapper
post Dec 28 2017, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Dec 28 2017, 06:53 PM) *
First non-observation thread for me... take it easy please! laugh.gif

BSR
SOI
GFS Runs


haha my man! I like the opening post.. OFM, mixed with technology. *thumbs up*

Will be interesting to see where life takes us with this one. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Solstice
post Dec 29 2017, 08:24 AM
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Thanks Clapper!
0z and 6z GFS keep the precipitation going. All that's needed at this point laugh.gif.

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This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 29 2017, 08:27 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Dec 29 2017, 11:48 AM
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12z GFS still has it... good signs although still way too far out.

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--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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UTWeather
post Dec 29 2017, 02:38 PM
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Euro seems to have something brewing. Cold 850's to the north.

This post has been edited by UTWeather: Dec 29 2017, 02:41 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 29 2017, 03:20 PM
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Bring it on.....
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RickRD
post Dec 29 2017, 06:04 PM
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18Z GFS 12-29-17 is a snow changing to rainstorm at this point for those East of the Apps. Time will tell.

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This post has been edited by RickRD: Dec 29 2017, 06:07 PM
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Solstice
post Dec 29 2017, 06:06 PM
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Solid Apps runner now... Storm has been resilient in surviving the GFS carnival. laugh.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Dec 29 2017, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(UTWeather @ Dec 29 2017, 02:38 PM) *
Euro seems to have something brewing. Cold 850's to the north.

That's a really good high in the way. In that time frame there is precip in the OH valley. If this tries tracking up the apps or west, its gonna be a nasty ice storm for many.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Dec 29 2017, 09:41 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis



First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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jdrenken
post Dec 30 2017, 02:05 AM
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Hovmoller Analysis just issued has January 10th for a couple passes.
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JDClapper
post Dec 30 2017, 07:24 AM
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6z MREFs, many see something for this time period .. *insert obligatory long range caution statement*

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 30 2017, 11:17 AM
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QUOTE(RickRD @ Dec 29 2017, 06:04 PM) *
18Z GFS 12-29-17 is a snow changing to rainstorm at this point for those East of the Apps. Time will tell.

Boo....let's hope this set of graphics don't come to fruition dry.gif
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Storms R us
post Dec 30 2017, 12:13 PM
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QUOTE(RickRD @ Dec 29 2017, 06:04 PM) *
18Z GFS 12-29-17 is a snow changing to rainstorm at this point for those East of the Apps. Time will tell.

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Could be because isn't this when there is supposed to be a thaw coming, which would make sense then on this setup of cold & warmth fight.
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Solstice
post Dec 30 2017, 04:34 PM
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My oh my, what a ghost town this thread is laugh.gif. So many variables to count out... I actually can't believe this hasn't gone "poof" yet. There's the mess of the 4th-6th storm that needs to be resolved... then the highs that sweep in.

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This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 30 2017, 04:43 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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JDClapper
post Dec 30 2017, 11:14 PM
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CMC got your back Solstice.

0z

Cutting, but a well placed H for some decent CAD.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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NwsScott
post Dec 31 2017, 01:44 AM
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Ecmwf cooking up another lr storm.
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NwsScott
post Dec 31 2017, 02:00 AM
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Miller a/b hybrid running into cold air moving out. Lets see how this resolves in the next few days . 2 threats to watch.
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JDClapper
post Dec 31 2017, 10:41 AM
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Technology is jumpy .. as expected at 200+ hours.

H5? Can you spot any "trends" my friends, over the past 48 hours of GFS model runs?

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Fine.. what's it like on the surface... trends?

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Alright.. technology isn't making this easy... OFM? EAR rule looks gnarly. This is happening now.. add 6-10 days for correlation to EC.

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RRWT? Currently, 46 days is tops.. give or take a day (45-47) .. here's what it looked like back in November.. maybe adjust "south" due to seasonality? Suggests storminess as well.

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Looks good for some action during this period .. details to be ironed out.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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jdrenken
post Dec 31 2017, 02:03 PM
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Euro moves the slp from Memphis to Brunswick, GA in it's long range.





--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 1 2018, 05:52 AM
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This threat ain't looking too bad at this juncture.

First things first of course.
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