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> Dec 12-14th Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm, Thread closed...see OBS thread
fireman5214
post Dec 10 2009, 11:00 PM
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I cant believe all teh negative comments. first of i thoghut that was bittercasting and ZERO Tolerance for that, but anyway im still going by what matt says. He's the one on here that describes my area the most accurate. I also cant believe there is no snow on the ground where places got 2-3 inches. Im sitting with about 2 inches on the ground in most places of my yard and ice from where I was walking to work on my christmas display for maintenance. Other places are bare but very few. Thanks for all the hard work matt.


--------------------
Bushkill Twp. Vol. Fire Co. Firefighter Northampton County Fire Station 52
CSX Trans Corp. garden railroad Nazareth, PA operations CEO
Proud Member www.PlanetChristmas.com
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Removed_Member_BaltimoreWeatherguy21_*
post Dec 10 2009, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 10 2009, 10:58 PM) *
yup like you said maybe CAD will be stronger then is being shown but this would even bring rain to all of PA and much of upstate NY

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_072l.gif

Which is why im not changing my forecast yet that I put out earlier, but if you were to base a forecast on this, then you would have most of PA and Southern New York as mostly rain...
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joemal
post Dec 10 2009, 11:01 PM
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some snow before it changes to a cold rain in my backyard.


--------------------
2009-2010 Winter Season

WILKES-BARRE PENNSYLVANIA

FIRST SNOWFLAKES = 10/15/09
FIRST INCH = 12/5/2009

MEASURABLE SNOW DAYS
12/5/09 - 5.0 INCHES (Grass and Table, Roads and sidewalks much less)
12/8-9/09 - 4.15 INCHES
12/19-20/09 - 2.0 INCHES
12/31/09 - 1.25 INCHES (Morning wave)
12/31/09 into 1/1/10 - 1 INCH
1/8/10 - 1.0 INCHES
2/10/10 - 9.0 INCHES
2/15-16/10 - 0.5 INCHES
2/25-27/10 - 15.0 INCHES
TOTAL SNOW THIS SEASON =38.90 Inches
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SnowGirl
post Dec 10 2009, 11:01 PM
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What is the deal with SW PA? Pittsburgh cna't buy snow this year! NWS is saying timing is critical to determine P type, and I agree with that. For now, Accuweather is forecasting ice.


--------------------
SnowGirl
Mt. Lebanon, PA

Snow totals for Pittsburgh 2009-2010: 77.4"
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SnowMan11
post Dec 10 2009, 11:02 PM
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QUOTE(EMTNYC @ Dec 10 2009, 10:58 PM) *
mad.gif mad.gif Another storm down the drain.


Yep.

QUOTE(EMTNYC @ Dec 10 2009, 10:59 PM) *
Nobody even cares about this storm enough to post the 0z GFS laugh.gif


It's going to be all rain, that's why.


--------------------
Anthony
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SnowMan11
post Dec 10 2009, 11:02 PM
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QUOTE(Thunderdome @ Dec 10 2009, 11:01 PM) *
let me add to the negativity...this season sucks for snow dry.gif


Yes so far but a long way to go.


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Anthony
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Removed_Member_BaltimoreWeatherguy21_*
post Dec 10 2009, 11:03 PM
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QUOTE(fireman5214 @ Dec 10 2009, 11:00 PM) *
I cant believe all teh negative comments. first of i thoghut that was bittercasting and ZERO Tolerance for that, but anyway im still going by what matt says. He's the one on here that describes my area the most accurate. I also cant believe there is no snow on the ground where places got 2-3 inches. Im sitting with about 2 inches on the ground in most places of my yard and ice from where I was walking to work on my christmas display for maintenance. Other places are bare but very few. Thanks for all the hard work matt.

I really dont disagree with much of what he says, I just dont think hes being specific enough when hes talking about his points such as CAD and so forth, He has great knowledge but I can never really get a read on what areas he is talking about...
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Removed_Member_BaltimoreWeatherguy21_*
post Dec 10 2009, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(SnowGirl @ Dec 10 2009, 11:01 PM) *
What is the deal with SW PA? Pittsburgh cna't buy snow this year! NWS is saying timing is critical to determine P type, and I agree with that. For now, Accuweather is forecasting ice.

You live near Pittsburgh? Right now I would say not very good, maybe some brief ice or snow to rain.
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PAsnowmobile
post Dec 10 2009, 11:05 PM
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QUOTE(Thunderdome @ Dec 11 2009, 12:01 AM) *
let me add to the negativity...this season sucks for snow dry.gif


LOL, calm down it's not even winter yet! Does the Mid-Atl have a history of great snowy decembers? Don't think so.
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Where is MY SNOW...
post Dec 10 2009, 11:05 PM
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I think this thread needs more negativity.

This storm is rain
for everyone
the next one will be also
the entire winter no more snow
forever
the world will end in 2012
rain rain rain rain blowtorch rain rain rain GLC rain blowtorch rain warm laugh.gif


--------------------


Snowfall in Warren, NJ
December 26-27 "Post Christmas Blizzard": 14 inches
January 7 "Norlun Trough": 1.5 inches
January 8 "Coastal": 1.5 inches
January 17-18 "Snow to Ice to Rain": 2 inches snow to freezing rain to rain
January 21 "Mini-storm": 4.5 inches
January 26-27 Nor'Easter: 16 inches
February 1 "Groundhog Day Storm Part 1" 1 inch snow, 1/10 inch ice
February 2 "Groundhog Day Storm Part 2" 3/10 inch freezing rain
February 21 "Wave 1" 1.5 inches snow
Subtotal of 42 inches

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PAsnowmobile
post Dec 10 2009, 11:05 PM
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QUOTE(SnowGirl @ Dec 11 2009, 12:01 AM) *
What is the deal with SW PA? Pittsburgh cna't buy snow this year! NWS is saying timing is critical to determine P type, and I agree with that. For now, Accuweather is forecasting ice.


It's still early, pittsburgh will have a snow before january...
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 10 2009, 11:07 PM
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QUOTE(BaltimoreWeatherguy21 @ Dec 10 2009, 11:03 PM) *
I really dont disagree with much of what he says, I just dont think hes being specific enough when hes talking about his points such as CAD and so forth, He has great knowledge but I can never really get a read on what areas he is talking about...


I could be wrong but i get this sense he is generally talking about the interior and while hes a great forecaster sometimes underestimates how hard it is to hang onto cold air in places like philly,nyc.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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fireman5214
post Dec 10 2009, 11:07 PM
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QUOTE(BaltimoreWeatherguy21 @ Dec 10 2009, 11:03 PM) *
I really dont disagree with much of what he says, I just dont think hes being specific enough when hes talking about his points such as CAD and so forth, He has great knowledge but I can never really get a read on what areas he is talking about...


ok well he has been spot on so far for this yr with the past couple of storms for my area for sure. A few others from last sat's storm who ever had 2-4 or 3-6 for me was correct as well as we ended up with 3.5 inches in my backyard, while he posted that macungie further south of me and him was at 9 inches. I was jealous but at least people on here were more right then the NWS.


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Bushkill Twp. Vol. Fire Co. Firefighter Northampton County Fire Station 52
CSX Trans Corp. garden railroad Nazareth, PA operations CEO
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EMTNYC
post Dec 10 2009, 11:10 PM
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I couldn't help but notice the forecast for Lowville, NY during all the lake effect snow. I know it is off topic but it is amazing:

"Overnight: Snow showers before 2am, then areas of blowing snow and scattered snow showers between 2am and 3am, then snow showers after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -2. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

Friday: Snow and areas of blowing snow before noon, then snow likely and areas of blowing snow between noon and 1pm, then snow and areas of blowing snow after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Wind chill values as low as -1. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Friday Night: Snow and areas of blowing snow before 3am, then snow likely after 3am. Low around 13. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible."

So basically anywhere from 25-35" of snow for them in the next 24 hours. How can we get that lucky??
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SnowMan11
post Dec 10 2009, 11:11 PM
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0z GFS gives NYC snow or sleet to rain. It's a little colder to start than previous runs.


--------------------
Anthony
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hckyplayer8
post Dec 10 2009, 11:11 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 10 2009, 11:00 PM) *
i still cant figure out exactly whats blowtorching us but i dont think it's the coastal, i think as weatherjunkie said there is some other kind of disturbance comingfrom the west.


This frame says it all.

Attached Image


1.West based Atlantic High pumping warm air North even before the LPS cuts up the coast.
2.Northern GLL keeps Arctic high from dropping SE, which would load cold air into the backside of the system.
3.Huge GOA PV.


--------------------
The opinions in my posts are of my own and do not represent those of the USAF.



Grand Forks AFB 2015-2016 Snowfall - 28.85" 52 days of trace






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ArmonkStorm
post Dec 10 2009, 11:11 PM
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0z GFS= No big changes



--------------------
Average Seasonal Snow: 35"

Total Snow for the 09-10 Season--- 43.5"
Total Snow for the 10-11 Season--- 70.5"
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Removed_Member_BaltimoreWeatherguy21_*
post Dec 10 2009, 11:12 PM
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QUOTE(fireman5214 @ Dec 10 2009, 11:07 PM) *
ok well he has been spot on so far for this yr with the past couple of storms for my area for sure. A few others from last sat's storm who ever had 2-4 or 3-6 for me was correct as well as we ended up with 3.5 inches in my backyard, while he posted that macungie further south of me and him was at 9 inches. I was jealous but at least people on here were more right then the NWS.

Indeed, Again...he has great knowledge..I beleive he busted a bit though on the southern end of his map though because here In Essex I only got an inch and I was in the 3-6 inch band, Although I will give it to him that it ranged much higher just about 25 miles to my west and northwest...Anyhow thats not what this thread is about..Point is there will be CAD but it will be strongest and impact the interior the most.
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tick629
post Dec 10 2009, 11:14 PM
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There have been many complaints of bittercasting on and off this evening. Any form of bittercasting and/or wishcasting is against the accuforum guidelines, and will result in a warn.

"11. No Wishcasting: This is not a place to post "theoretical" or "perfect storm" predictions. "Wishcasting" is hoping for extreme weather outside of the consensus forecast, often beyond the typical computer forecast model accuracy limit (including "bittercasting" (which is saying "It won't happen" with no reason). If you can't support your forecast with the parameters of at least one forecast model, or quotes from other forecasters, you shouldn't post it. If you are going to explain your forecast by citing other websites / meteorologists that agree with you, you MUST source them (see #16)."

Lets keep things on topic going forward


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gloryboy1417
post Dec 10 2009, 11:16 PM
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QUOTE(tick629 @ Dec 10 2009, 11:14 PM) *
There have been many complaints of bittercasting on and off this evening. Any form of bittercasting and/or wishcasting is against the accuforum guidelines, and will result in a warn.

"11. No Wishcasting: This is not a place to post "theoretical" or "perfect storm" predictions. "Wishcasting" is hoping for extreme weather outside of the consensus forecast, often beyond the typical computer forecast model accuracy limit (including "bittercasting" (which is saying "It won't happen" with no reason). If you can't support your forecast with the parameters of at least one forecast model, or quotes from other forecasters, you shouldn't post it. If you are going to explain your forecast by citing other websites / meteorologists that agree with you, you MUST source them (see #16)."

Lets keep things on topic going forward


Thank you
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