 Dec. 25-27 SE Storm, Post last minute forecasts and OBS |
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 Dec 24 2012, 04:05 PM
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#101
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230  |
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Dec 24 2012, 04:10 PM
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#102
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
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Dec 24 2012, 04:12 PM
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#103
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 255 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012 TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-250415- STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON- HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE- SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS- WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE- CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE- GILES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD... GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN ..ERIN... WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON... MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOK VILLE... LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE. .HOHENWALD... FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURF EESBORO... WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHEL YVILLE... TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT... PENCER... WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI 255 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012 ...ACTIVE WEATHER HEADING TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GATHER STRENGTH OVER SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT... BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD TENNESSEE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE CHRISTMAS NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO ONE AND HALF INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MILES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM LAWRENCEBURG TO MCMINNVILE TO CROSSVILLE SOUTHWARD AROUND MIDNIGHT CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE AND MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFFECTING THE CITIES OF DOVER...CLARKSVILLE... SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...DICKSON AND WAVERLY ALONG WITH NORTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW POSSIBLE. UP TO A INCH OF SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATEAU FROM CROSSVILLE NORTH TO JAMESTOWN ON WEDNESDAY. -------------------- 1"
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Dec 24 2012, 04:43 PM
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#104
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
 991 now,much stronger -------------------- 1"
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Dec 24 2012, 04:53 PM
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#105
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
Plateau did better this run,MAYBE 2" by the looks,slight shift to the E
This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Dec 24 2012, 04:54 PM -------------------- 1"
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Dec 24 2012, 05:45 PM
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#106
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 334 Joined: 8-February 10 From: Jackson, MS Member No.: 21,607 |
So, as a resident of the deep south, what kind of severe weather do y'all see coming for Baton Rouge area in Louisiana for Christmas? Any thoughts on this threat?
-------------------- "Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30 |
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Dec 24 2012, 07:21 PM
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#107
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Dec 24 2012, 04:45 PM)  So, as a resident of the deep south, what kind of severe weather do y'all see coming for Baton Rouge area in Louisiana for Christmas? Any thoughts on this threat? It could be rough for you guy,be safe man and Merry Christmas -------------------- 1"
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Dec 24 2012, 07:25 PM
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#108
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
Models are sample today,0z run will probably be different
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Dec 24 2012, 09:17 PM
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#109
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
 East -------------------- 1"
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Dec 24 2012, 11:20 PM
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#110
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
 Definite trend to the E -------------------- 1"
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Dec 25 2012, 01:29 AM
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#111
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
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Dec 25 2012, 02:37 AM
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#112
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
Euro shifted to the E some looking at the pro maps,the L looks to fall somewhere between Cookeville and Crossville.Should be some sn down to N/Al,but no accum.We might get a inch of anything here,but Memphis should like what the Euro shows
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 Dec 25 2012, 07:05 AM
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#113
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 71 Joined: 31-October 12 Member No.: 27,092 |
QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Dec 25 2012, 03:37 AM) Euro shifted to the E some looking at the pro maps,the L looks to fall somewhere between Cookeville and Crossville.Should be some sn down to N/Al,but no accum.We might get a inch of anything here,but Memphis should like what the Euro shows I am going to move someplace like WV that reliably get snow every year; this really is the pits, to be so close to something so major only to miss it all together, hard to stay positive when you see year after year go by with nothing in middle tn -------------------- Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
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Dec 25 2012, 01:44 PM
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#114
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,423 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Brentwood,Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN/E-CNTRL OK...W-CNTRL/CNTRL/N-CNTRL AR CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 251811Z - 252315Z SUMMARY...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM S-CNTRL OK EWD/ENEWD INTO CNTRL/N-CNTRL AR...WITH A PHASE CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURRING FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DISCUSSION...RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED ACROSS N-CNTRL TX. THE LEADING WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXHIBITS A SHARP BACK EDGE INVOF THE SABINE RIVER AT THE INTERFACE OF AN IMPINGING DRY CONVEYOR BELT. STRONG WAA WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINED ON THE BACKSIDE OF A CORRESPONDING SFC CYCLONE AS WELL. ...THROUGH 21Z... ACROSS CNTRL AR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT 4-6C TEMPERATURES WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB...WITH THE LITTLE ROCK 12Z RAOB HAVING SAMPLED 6-7C TEMPERATURES IN THAT LAYER. MELTING PROCESSES/LATENT COOLING AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO SOME COOLING ALOFT...THOUGH THE WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HYDROMETEOR MELTING. AND...WITH MANY SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES BELOW 0C...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR MAY EVOLVE. FARTHER TO THE N/W ACROSS N-CNTRL AR INTO PARTS OF E-CNTRL OK...COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ONLY PARTIAL MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS ATOP SUBFREEZING WET-BULB ZERO SFC TEMPERATURES...YIELDING SLEET/SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR MAY ENSUE WITHIN BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...OWING TO STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS. ACROSS S-CNTRL/SERN OK...WARMER LOW-LEVEL PROFILES ARE INITIALLY SUPPORTING RAIN...THOUGH THE INTRUSION OF A DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS STRONG DCVA PRECEDING THE VORT MAX CROSSES THE AREA. ...AFTER 21Z... PRECIPITATION WILL PROGRESSIVELY TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM W TO E AS DEEPER COLD AIR ENTERS THE AREA...WHILE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP CYCLONE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...AS ASCENT IS MAINTAINED IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CORRESPONDING 700-MB CYCLONE. -------------------- 1"
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 21st May 2013 - 04:24 PM |