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> Dec 30st - Jan 1st MidAtl/New England New Years Winter Storm, Cogitation: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Dec 13 2017, 01:52 PM
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Pulled my posts and info dive over from the OFM thread

Again a lot of signals out there, and since this is a holiday I figured why not smile.gif

Play along but most of all play nice laugh.gif

QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 13 2017, 01:41 PM) *
So for my next lie....

Lolol
Bsr for 12/31

H5


Mslp


There appears to be a nice ridge poking up that may hint at a positively oriented PNA and western push in the "correct orientation"
East Asia rule/little Japanese snowmen



Shows yet another possible monster typhoon curving while a front crosses Japan and drops two piece snowmen all over smile.gif
The rrwt shows favorable h5 conditions in a 5d interval up until the 27th and depicts a -pna pattern change after that

A lot of dates/analogs gets blended so there may be some extremas that depict storminess during the 1231-0101 time frame.


As of 12/8 I believe the a good blend of 60, 50 and 37 days would be around 47 which puts us at around 10/22-23?

Maybe josh or renken can verify my math smile.gif

But here is the h5 for those dates at 12z




This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Dec 24 2017, 04:56 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 13 2017, 01:54 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 13 2017, 01:41 PM) *
Soi delta drops for the 31st as well

So really given all the pattern change talk and what not the OFM to me is sugnsking something possibly very interesting to bring in the new year

Guess we shall see smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Dec 13 2017, 02:45 PM
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Hovmoller Analysis...pay attention more so to the latitude and not the city.
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Undertakerson
post Dec 13 2017, 05:15 PM
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Hmmm - BSR has quite a bit of Atl Traffic signal for this time period. Oooh boy!



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Solstice
post Dec 14 2017, 07:55 AM
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Well... this has completely confused me. Anyone care to explain what they are saying to a noob? Lol


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 14 2017, 10:41 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 13 2017, 02:45 PM) *
Hovmoller Analysis...pay attention more so to the latitude and not the city.



This hovmoller illustration is gorgeous.

I wish I had the time to go over it fir any noobs who are interested but alas I just don't right now.

The best thing to do is just keep following along in the organic thread. Research rossby waves, they appear everywhere in our atmosphere and oceans. Pattern recognition techniques abound but truly elegant ones are hard to come by.


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LUCC
post Dec 14 2017, 12:05 PM
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Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Dec 15 2017, 05:45 AM
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crickee
post Dec 15 2017, 12:27 PM
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Haha, in my "professional" opinion, this will definitely happen since I leave from Baltimore on 12/31 for a warm Bahamas cruise. laugh.gif laugh.gif That's the kind of luck I have!


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Undertakerson
post Dec 16 2017, 05:53 AM
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QUOTE(crickee @ Dec 15 2017, 12:27 PM) *
Haha, in my "professional" opinion, this will definitely happen since I leave from Baltimore on 12/31 for a warm Bahamas cruise. laugh.gif laugh.gif That's the kind of luck I have!

You might want to leave earlier - like maybe tomorrow? Just to make sure you make it to the starting point

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JDClapper
post Dec 17 2017, 11:46 PM
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Yep.. just gonna slip between these two high pressures to my NW and NE...

rolleyes.gif

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Sorta...


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Solstice
post Dec 18 2017, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 13 2017, 01:52 PM) *


So what does the 10/22-23 dates have to do with 12/31-1/02? I'm kinda confused as I'm new. Can you explain to me? sad.gif

This post has been edited by Solstice: Dec 18 2017, 09:41 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 18 2017, 11:36 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Dec 18 2017, 09:41 AM) *
So what does the 10/22-23 dates have to do with 12/31-1/02? I'm kinda confused as I'm new. Can you explain to me? sad.gif


I'm not positive on what connection you are seeing between the two

If it's in regards to the Hovmoller plot than we are talking about signaling. Reccurung rossby wave train to be exact.

I do wish I had more time to break everything down better, but beyond maybe crossover harmonics between the dates (which I'm not sure that's even occurring without diving in) the answer to your question is likely nothing at all.

They are mutually independent FAPP (for all practical purposes)

Keep following along and research rossby waves

This video made it click for me way back when regarding the harmonics of the wave train and how the oscillations work and oscillate to a degree all while working independent of each other to an extent.

https://youtu.be/V87VXA6gPuE

You can a have major harmonic and other minor harmonics crossing paths per se

Again renken or josh can slap my wrist if I'm off but this is how it worked for me. Understanding how this all works is journey into more than meteorology, so be prepared to spend time if you want to grasp it more than your "average Joe"

See what I did there laugh.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Dec 18 2017, 11:38 AM


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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 18 2017, 09:18 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 17 2017, 11:46 PM) *

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I'll gladly settle for a New Years eve snowfall tongue.gif
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Undertakerson
post Dec 19 2017, 05:43 AM
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As currently modeled, this has the hallmarks of a massive over running event - kind of reminds me of PDII set up.


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Undertakerson
post Dec 19 2017, 05:44 AM
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Strong Canadian SHP ready to take on developing coastal/ over runner. Could be a huge storm.


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plowxpress
post Dec 19 2017, 06:45 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 19 2017, 05:44 AM) *
Strong Canadian SHP ready to take on developing coastal/ over runner. Could be a huge storm.


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Look at that 1046 overhead, nice...
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Storms R us
post Dec 19 2017, 07:02 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 19 2017, 05:44 AM) *
Strong Canadian SHP ready to take on developing coastal/ over runner. Could be a huge storm.


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Problem here is if that 1046 H is actually weaker in later modelling, 1046 moves off the east quicker and then the storm cuts more inland. It be strong enough and come further south and suppress the system. Time will tell and will watch and see.
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Undertakerson
post Dec 19 2017, 07:17 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Dec 19 2017, 07:02 AM) *
Problem here is if that 1046 H is actually weaker in later modelling, 1046 moves off the east quicker and then the storm cuts more inland. It be strong enough and come further south and suppress the system. Time will tell and will watch and see.

Considering it was not there in previous runs at all - and that 1036 or more is enough to do the trick, that High is probably actually undermodeled at present.

I don't get you comment about "inland" - so I'll leave that one alone. unsure.gif


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jdrenken
post Dec 19 2017, 08:14 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 18 2017, 10:36 AM) *
I'm not positive on what connection you are seeing between the two

If it's in regards to the Hovmoller plot than we are talking about signaling. Reccurung rossby wave train to be exact.

I do wish I had more time to break everything down better, but beyond maybe crossover harmonics between the dates (which I'm not sure that's even occurring without diving in) the answer to your question is likely nothing at all.

They are mutually independent FAPP (for all practical purposes)

Keep following along and research rossby waves

This video made it click for me way back when regarding the harmonics of the wave train and how the oscillations work and oscillate to a degree all while working independent of each other to an extent.

https://youtu.be/V87VXA6gPuE

You can a have major harmonic and other minor harmonics crossing paths per se

Again renken or josh can slap my wrist if I'm off but this is how it worked for me. Understanding how this all works is journey into more than meteorology, so be prepared to spend time if you want to grasp it more than your "average Joe"

See what I did there laugh.gif laugh.gif


Indeed



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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