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> June 19-24th Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS
jdrenken
post Jun 22 2011, 07:06 AM
Post #621




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MID-ATLANTIC...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...LOWER GREAT LAKES...OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...LOWER MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX...

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A
MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SSWWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND MID-MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS
FROM THE ERN PART OF SRN LOWER MI SSWWD ACROSS OH INTO WRN KY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS SRN LOWER
MI IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IN STRONG FORCING ALOFT.
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM DETROIT MI SWD TO DAYTON OH
SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500
TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT
WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS. SOME MODELS ALSO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING FROM WRN OH SWWD ACROSS SE IND INTO WRN KY.
THIS CONVECTION WOULD ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY DUE TO
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOULD TEND TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LINE-SEGMENTS.

...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE... AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM WCNTRL PA SSEWD INTO
MD AND ERN VA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 21Z
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 40 TO
45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LINE
OUT. THIS WOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE GREATER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY TODAY.
SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A LARGE MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM
THE TX GULF COAST NEWD INTO LA. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
EXIST THIS MORNING AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE HOUSTON AREA AND
INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX AND LA. IF THE MCS CAN
REGENERATE DUE TO SFC HEATING...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP
EWD INTO SRN AND WRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM NORTH TX ENEWD ACROSS SRN AR...NRN
LA...NRN MS AND WRN TN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL HELP CREATE 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THE MORE INTENSE CELLS MAY CONTAIN A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTH TX AND SRN AR WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL AID THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
CAN CONGEAL INTO SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL COULD DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
SOME MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.

..BROYLES/GRAMS.. 06/22/2011


--------------------
QUOTE
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jdrenken
post Jun 22 2011, 07:08 AM
Post #622




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Since the OV and Eastern GL still show up in the Day 2, will extend the dates. Keep in mind those areas for Day 2 are talked about here.





QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPSTATE NY TO TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MT...

...UPSTATE NY SWWD TO TN...

UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY2 PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD
ALONG THE IND/IL BORDER INTO WRN TN BY MID DAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SFC-6KM
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT...EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ORGANIZATIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING
THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS AS CURRENTLY DELINEATED BY SLGT RISK.
HOWEVER...BOTH SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
RAPIDLY BY 18Z ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THUS SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 06/22/2011


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 22 2011, 07:08 AM
Post #623




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Since the OV and Eastern GL still show up in the Day 2, will extend the dates. Keep in mind those areas for Day 2 are talked about here.





QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM UPSTATE NY TO TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MT...

...UPSTATE NY SWWD TO TN...

UPPER LOW WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
DAY2 PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD
ALONG THE IND/IL BORDER INTO WRN TN BY MID DAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MOST OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SFC-6KM
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT...EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ORGANIZATIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN DESTABILIZING
THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS AS CURRENTLY DELINEATED BY SLGT RISK.
HOWEVER...BOTH SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
RAPIDLY BY 18Z ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THUS SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS.

..DARROW.. 06/22/2011


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Southern Indiana
post Jun 22 2011, 09:00 AM
Post #624




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LMK AFD not sold on severe threat for our area today. Does anticipate a little action overnight

QUOTE
000
FXUS63 KLMK 221118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BUT DEFINITELY NEED TO TREND LOWER
WITH POPS TODAY. WE DO NOT HAVE AS MUCH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS (LOWER/MID 80S) MAY NOT
BE REALIZED UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WHY...WE`RE STARTING OFF
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE MORNING.

WILL RELY PRIMARILY ON THE NAM/LOCAL WRF AND HRRR FOR THIS FORECAST.

IF LOW CLOUDS DO INDEED DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA...THEN THIS SHOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST. IF
NOT...THE CONVECTIVE PROCESS WILL BEGIN SOONER. SO BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS TO INITIATE
IN THE 18Z-19Z TIME FRAME MAINLY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
FROM SW INDIANA INTO WKY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

BY 00Z THIS EVE...SLOW MOVING STACKED LOWS SHOULD BE IN SOUTHERN WI
WITH ATTENDANT SLOW MOVING FRONT STILL MAINLY UPSTREAM OF OUR REGION
(EAST OF IND TO NEAR EVV) WITH STORMS MOST WIDESPREAD (STILL
SCATTERED) ACRS OUR FORECAST AREA. AFTERWARD...STORMS EXPECTED TO BE
CLUSTERED FROM THE BLUEGRASS REGION INTO SCNTRL/SE KY BY 03Z AND IN
EKY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND OUR LOCAL WRF IMPLY A
SMALL LINEAR COMPLEX ACRS SCNTRL INDIANA AT 06Z ON THE FRONT...A
FEATURE SPC FAVORS ON THEIR LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH OUR
ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 22 2011, 09:09 AM
Post #625




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Champaign, IL
Member No.: 24,572





QUOTE
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
903 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

TXC057-221415-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110622T1415Z/
CALHOUN-
903 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 859 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR INDIANOLA...OR 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT OCONNOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK ROTATION WAS NOTED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF SEADRIFT.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAGNOLIA BEACH...
OLIVIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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Torontoweather
post Jun 22 2011, 10:23 AM
Post #626




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Member No.: 19,500





Storms already developing in western MI:
SOURCE


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Louieloy102
post Jun 22 2011, 10:55 AM
Post #627




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Member No.: 16,649





13 hours and the lights are fixed. I am lucky, some people won't be with power until Friday.
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The Snowman
post Jun 22 2011, 11:03 AM
Post #628




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Posts: 7,173
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statistics from Palatine area- 42 branches up to 2 inches in diameter, 18 branches at 2'' or larger in diameter, a basketball hoop with water filled bottom was toppled. All this from only a few streets.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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Louieloy102
post Jun 22 2011, 11:11 AM
Post #629




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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jun 22 2011, 11:03 AM) *
statistics from Palatine area- 42 branches up to 2 inches in diameter, 18 branches at 2'' or larger in diameter, a basketball hoop with water filled bottom was toppled. All this from only a few streets.

Seemed to be a little worse here. Tree fell on power line close by. Over 20 trees down within the town. No one was hurt. But 15 miles away 2 people were injured.
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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 22 2011, 11:07 AM
Post #630




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QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...IND...LOWER MI...WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221546Z - 221745Z

STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWER CU AND WEAK STORMS FORMING OVER WRN MI
INTO WRN INDIANA NEAR A DRYLINE. AMPLE MOISTURE EXISTS TO THE E WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES. ALTHOUGH CIN HAS BEEN
REMOVED...OVERALL LAPSE RATES PROFILES ARE WEAK. THEREFORE...EXPECT
A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES WITH
HEATING.

DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
WITH 30 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING TO OVER 50 KT IN THE
MID LEVELS. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE COLD POOLS AND
MOVE NEWD WITH DAMAGING WINDS REQUIRING A WATCH.


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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Illinois blizzar...
post Jun 22 2011, 12:46 PM
Post #631




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QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MUNCIE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NOW MOVING INTO SWRN MI AND NRN IND. WITH 40-50KT OF SHEAR
COUPLED WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO INTENSITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.


--------------------
2013:
Winter Weather Advisories: 1
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Storm Warnings: 0

9.20" on 12/14/13 first winter storm

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MDH
post Jun 22 2011, 12:56 PM
Post #632




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We should get a new thread started for the 25th through to early july. There's an extremely active looking pattern setting up for the northern plains...
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Chicago Storm
post Jun 22 2011, 02:32 PM
Post #633




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Monday's chase out in Nebraska went quite well...

Ended up with 3 tornadoes around the york area...

The first was a nice funnel, which eventually touched down as a very fine/needle/pencil tornado.

The second was partially rain wrapped from our position.

The third was the longer track of the three. This tornado was also multi-vortex for a time. Along the way we came across tree damage, snapped power poles, and an irrigation system that was twisted and flipped.

Pics...

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image



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snowlover2
post Jun 22 2011, 02:36 PM
Post #634




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QUOTE(Chicago Storm @ Jun 22 2011, 03:32 PM) *
Monday's chase out in Nebraska went quite well...


Awesome pics Joe. Great job.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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SEMIweather
post Jun 22 2011, 03:20 PM
Post #635




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Lake Orion, MI
Member No.: 14,772





This was a great storm, by far the best here since I have been back in Michigan. I was driving back from a dentist appt. when it hit, but I did stop and take a few pictures as the storm was departing. These are both looking to my SE at a different storm in the line. These are the best tower pictures I can remember taking in Michigan.

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
University of Oklahoma Meteorology Major - Class of 2014


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SEMIweather
post Jun 22 2011, 03:35 PM
Post #636




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Lake Orion, MI
Member No.: 14,772





Round two coming in right now...looks pretty nice to my SW. Regardless of how strong these last two rounds are, I'll definitely take 3 storms in one day. biggrin.gif


--------------------
University of Oklahoma Meteorology Major - Class of 2014


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SEMIweather
post Jun 22 2011, 03:42 PM
Post #637




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Lake Orion, MI
Member No.: 14,772





This one didn't have any wind but had very heavy rain...and the sun came out before it stopped raining again. Very nice 5 minute storm, I'm enjoying today for sure.


--------------------
University of Oklahoma Meteorology Major - Class of 2014


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SADBadger
post Jun 22 2011, 03:54 PM
Post #638




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I don't know if these will show up very well...but this is one of the storms from yesterday off to my southeast as I was driving home about 5:15PM.


Attached thumbnail(s)
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--------------------
Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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snowlover2
post Jun 22 2011, 03:57 PM
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Attached Image

QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SWRN OH...CNTRL/WRN KY AND TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222043Z - 222215Z

STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SRN INDIANA INTO
WRN TN. MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WATCH
COULD BE REQUIRED IF COVERAGE INCREASES.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SRN
INDIANA...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER WRN TN. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
VEERING IS MINIMAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE A THREAT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING PEAK
HEATING. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS...DESPITE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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BIG STEVE
post Jun 22 2011, 04:05 PM
Post #640




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 128
Joined: 10-February 09
From: roseville MI
Member No.: 17,545





Sun is out here in Roseville MI hear thunder though

This post has been edited by BIG STEVE: Jun 22 2011, 04:06 PM
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