Nov. 19-28 West (California) Dry Period, Fair, warmer & drier weather through Thanksgiving and beyond. Options

[Beck]

Temecula topped out at 87F, and I got 86F at my house. Downtown L.A. reached 78F, but San Diego (Lindbergh Field) was shrouded in fog the whole day and only got up to 67F.

For those who are curious, here is a monthly summary for my weather station for November 2012 through today.

[LALEO]

The models continue their trend of a very active pattern for Southern California beginning on Wednesday. If this were to come to fruition as depicted now, We could be looking at significant rainfall here in the Southland, Especially so early in the season. It looks like subtropical Moisture will be involved with the event, but to what extent, That remains to be seen. At any rate, Definitely a situation to monitor.

[alxz310]

Very dense fog here in Santa Monica most of the day with temps in the upper 50s. Actually picked up 0.01" from all the moisture / drizzle. GFS is showing significant amounts of rainfall next week, especially for NorCal, for quite some time now, interesting to see how that will turn out

[Beck]

The NWS couldn't have been more right about the areas of dense fog along the coast this morning. Right now I'm on the Surfliner train en route to Simi Valley. We went through pockets of very dense fog from when I boarded the train in Oceanside, all through Camp Pendleton and San Clemente, but it's sunny here right now in San Juan Capistrano. Visible satellite imagery this morning suggests a large area of dense fog over the northern half of Orange County. I'm about to find out.....

[FrostFuzz]

The next system looks very wet for northern CA. The 6z GFS gives Chico over 8 inches over the next week. Also, haven't had a foggy morning yet since the last storm, so no drizzle.

[Beck]

There it is - just entered another wall of fog as we pass through Anaheim.

[FrostFuzz]

Both yesterday and today have been 4 degrees off of the record highs for the date, those record highs being being 91F and 92F respectively. Record highs for each day are hovering right around 90F and will do so all the way through winter. Christmas day, along with December 14th and January 21st have the lowest record high for Riverside, all three of which are 83F.

[Beck]

It was hot out there today. Me and a few other travelers were waiting for the train in Simi Valley before noon earlier today, and it was downright hot on that station platform. Fortunately for me, I spent most of today on air-conditioned trains and now I'm finally back in Temecula this evening.

My weather station recorded a high of 91F while I was gone today.

[ChrisL]

My weather station recorded a high of 91F while I was gone today.

Mine picked up about the same thing....92F. That was around the 2 o'clock hour. Looking forward to cooler temps tomorrow

[alxz310]

Looks like the firehose is pointed at NorCal! The 12Z GFS outputs a tremendous amount of rain (7.52") for the series of storms for Sacramento

THE GFS
MODEL IS INDICATING 20 PLUS INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR FAVORED SOUTHWEST SLOPES ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AND 15 PLUS
INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE...AND 5 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. BY NEXT WEEKEND FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD BECOME
A PROBLEM THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDED
PROBLEM OF POTENTIAL CLOGGED DRAINS THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM DEBRIS
FROM TREES

[FrostFuzz]

Looks like the firehose is pointed at NorCal! The 12Z GFS outputs a tremendous amount of rain (7.52") for the series of storms for Sacramento

I agree this is really beginning to look quite impressive in nothern California. The jury is still out down here, although it has some nice potential.

[socalstormlover]

Here is the Long term Area forecast discussion for my area (Extr. Northern California)

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
438 AM PST SUN NOV 25 2012

.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SWEEPING TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON TUE, THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR NW CALIFORNIA THIS MEANS A WET WEEK
AHEAD. THE FIRST FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE TUE INTO
WED, SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING SEEMS PRETTY GOOD
WITH THIS FIRST BOUT, BUT BEHIND THIS FRONT A SERIES OF VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WILL COME SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LOW. TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE IS CHALLENGING AT THIS TIME.
REST ASSURED, IT WILL BE WET FROM OVERNIGHT TUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE RAIN WITH SOME
CLEARING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. AS A RESULT, HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH
SAT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES A BROAD TROUGHY PATTERN OFF THE COAST
PAST NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS TYPE OF DISCREPANCY, BEGAN TO
TREND DOWN TOWARD CLIMO POPS LATE IN THE WEEK. IF MODELS ARE
CORRECT, THIS WEEK COULD BRING 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN TO NW
CALIFORNIA. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 5K
FT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, SO SNOW SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE ON MOST AREA PASSES. BFG"

This is going to be interesting

This post has been edited by socalstormlover: Nov 25 2012, 06:20 PM

[LALEO]

That guy couldn't have put it any better... IF the models get it right, It could be interesting. Either way, It's going to be downright wet, but the totals x models are putting out...Let's be realistic here. I'll take the safe, wait and see approach. We could be looking at decent rains here, but I'm not going to put too much trust into any model, Especially in the medium range.

[Severewx1]

I agree this is really beginning to look quite impressive in nothern California. The jury is still out down here, although it has some nice potential.

Not to sound pessimistic or anything, but based on the previous storms and current wx models, I am starting to doubt that we will get much from these upcoming storms. Up north, however, it is a whole different story. Maybe, I should go up north next week

The last time I saw these kind of totals forcasted was back in December 2010, when we had that "atmospheric river event" down here in Southern California.

This post has been edited by Severewx1: Nov 25 2012, 09:04 PM

[FrostFuzz]

Not to sound pessimistic or anything, but based on the previous storms and current wx models, I am starting to doubt that we will get much from these upcoming storms. Up north, however, it is a whole different story. Maybe, I should go up north next week

The last time I saw these kind of totals forcasted was back in December 2010, when we had that "atmospheric river event" down here in Southern California.

Yeah I don't mean to get anyone's hopes up. The GFS is actually pretty pathetic as you go down to San Diego. The Euro is a bit wetter though and the Canadian has been advertizing a soaker. Best to take a wait and see approach.

[FrostFuzz]

Decided to start a new thread for the upcoming system...

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=30204