Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> April 20-23 Southern US Severe Weather, Medium-range: 4-8 day forecasts and observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2018, 12:26 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,674
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





The SPC has had a 15% area delineated since day 7, but I haven't made a thread for it because the potential didn't look that great or widespread.

To an extent, not much has changed there. Still expecting a relatively weak system with modest low-level winds and a narrow warm sector.

On the positive side, there's 1000-1500 CAPE showing up on GFS and good vertical shear. In my opinion, one of the days that SPC hasn't delineated yet has the greatest potential; the 21st seems to be the day where all ingredients come together the best. The warm sector actually has everything in place for tornadoes, only thing that would heighten the threat is stronger low-level winds and more instability. Low-level winds might get taken care of with the nocturnal LLJ, and higher instability may be getting missed by GFS (not unheard of).

The 20th



21st




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 17 2018, 11:10 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,674
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Dr. Forbes has a TORCON of 3 for all 3 days, saying shear will be enough for a tornado threat but instability is the limiting factor.

Latest GFS



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 17 2018, 11:10 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Apr 18 2018, 08:28 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,360
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





...an interesting 'Southeastern Pacific Enhanced' satellite view from AccuWeather...lots of sub-tropical "juice"
Attached Image
...and a quick look at Day 3...
Attached Image



--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2018, 04:20 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,674
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Lone supercell in Texas is making today something. Good speed shear, not very strong but obviously sufficient vertical shear, and modest CAPE... especially MLCAPE. Weak low-level winds and MLCAPE are holding down the tornado threat right now.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 21 2018, 04:21 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 21 2018, 07:32 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 21 2018, 05:20 PM) *
Lone supercell in Texas is making today something. Good speed shear, not very strong but obviously sufficient vertical shear, and modest CAPE... especially MLCAPE. Weak low-level winds and MLCAPE are holding down the tornado threat right now.



What a weird look up in the atmosphere over north Texas.
Surface SE
925 S
850 W/NW
700 SW
500 W

Winds are not terribly strong either though even in the mid and upper levels 40-50knots enough of course for what is needed. Looks like the things were just off/misplaced for the area to make it anything fun. Instability biggest lack today at least but should manage to get some decent rains across southern texas as it slowly moves east.

Maybe there will be some clearing to allow tomorrow for some better activity.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2018, 08:45 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,674
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 21 2018, 08:32 PM) *
What a weird look up in the atmosphere over north Texas.
Surface SE
925 S
850 W/NW
700 SW
500 W

Winds are not terribly strong either though even in the mid and upper levels 40-50knots enough of course for what is needed. Looks like the things were just off/misplaced for the area to make it anything fun. Instability biggest lack today at least but should manage to get some decent rains across southern texas as it slowly moves east.

Maybe there will be some clearing to allow tomorrow for some better activity.

Yeah it certainly looked weird on mesoanalysis. Don't expect much from an occluded system with a small warm sector.

I believe this sounding was north of the warm sector and east of the occluded front. No wonder why the initial supercell became very messy. Yikes.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 21 2018, 08:47 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 22 2018, 03:02 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 21 2018, 09:45 PM) *
Yeah it certainly looked weird on mesoanalysis. Don't expect much from an occluded system with a small warm sector.

I believe this sounding was north of the warm sector and east of the occluded front. No wonder why the initial supercell became very messy. Yikes.



Yea little better in the veering department today but winds are weaker around the system. Instability also a little better and place better but still a lot of debris kept things from ramping up to possibly a squall situation down there. Also placement in relation to a lot of the energy is off again, further NW across TN and MS area is where the energy lies yet warm sector is southern AL southern GA and FL region. Not exactly what you wanna see but hey there may still be some decent boomers down there and quick spin-ups.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Kazairl
post Apr 23 2018, 12:24 AM
Post #8




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 205
Joined: 25-September 10
Member No.: 23,740





No severe storms, but this system is delivering a serious soaking to West KY and West TN. Paducah has had 2 inches of rain today and it's currently pouring. Rain keeps training in from the ESE around a center of circulation just NE of Memphis.

Edit: As of 10:53 CDT, Paducah has received 3.33 inches of rain from this little system.



This post has been edited by Kazairl: Apr 23 2018, 11:05 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 23 2018, 04:11 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,674
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





3 severe warned discrete supercells ongoing in Georgia. Northern most cell has the most tornado potential... others have weak low-level winds.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Kazairl
post Apr 23 2018, 10:25 PM
Post #10




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 205
Joined: 25-September 10
Member No.: 23,740





Several cold-air funnels reported in west KY. Several good pictures sent to the local TV station. Some more showers and a thunderstorm this afternoon brought Paducah's rain total to 4.49 inches since 1 AM Sunday.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 14th August 2018 - 06:13 AM