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> Dec 22-23rd Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2017, 02:47 PM
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Lets get the party started
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2017, 02:48 PM
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HRRR in range
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osubucks30
post Dec 22 2017, 02:52 PM
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Sref plumes avg is under 1 inch for CMH.... looking like yet another disappointment for central Ohio
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2017, 03:02 PM
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18z NAM is coming in stronger and a little warmer
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2017, 03:05 PM
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currently 50s right now and warm the last few days, hard to imagine even anything would stick around throughout tomorrow. Hopefully the ground can quickly cool Saturday night in time for the next system
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snowlover2
post Dec 22 2017, 03:06 PM
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18z NAM
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# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2017, 03:28 PM
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3km
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CentralIllinois
post Dec 22 2017, 04:10 PM
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so which topic is the Christmas eve system?


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Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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snowlover2
post Dec 22 2017, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Dec 22 2017, 05:10 PM) *
so which topic is the Christmas eve system?

White Christmas thread per JD.


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# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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CentralIllinois
post Dec 22 2017, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 22 2017, 03:13 PM) *
White Christmas thread per JD.

ok thanks!


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Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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RobB
post Dec 22 2017, 04:22 PM
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ILN Short tem AFD

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will remain nearly steady across northwest portions
of the forecast area on Saturday, while southeastern portions
of the region will see falling temperatures through the day on
Saturday.

There will be a thin corridor across northwestern portions of
the forecast area where temperature profiles are cold enough for
several hours with decent precipitation still lingering (almost
in a banded fashion behind the front) where large flakes could
lead to a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow with isolated higher
amounts. Pavement temperatures are also forecast to be closer to
freezing in this area and therefore with the quick rates and
cooler surfaces accumulations will be possible. In addition an
upper level disturbance will be moving through at this same
time helping to enhance snowfall.

One main thing to watch is where exactly this band sets up as
it will be thin and some areas will get less than a half inch
next to potentially multiple inches of snow. Continued mention
in the HWO and also issued a special weather statement for this
system. Decided to hold off on an advisory at this time in this
thin corridor northwest of Dayton due to values just under
advisory criteria (although there is the potential for some
areas to reach advisory level snow of 3 inches), uncertainty
with how quickly the cold air is going to move in, and the exact
location of the band of snow.

Elsewhere across the forecast area an inch or less of snowfall
is expected. Model soundings indicate that some wind gusts
around 20 to 25 mph will also be possible Saturday morning and
into the afternoon hours.

Snow will taper off by Saturday evening and dry conditions are
expected for the nighttime hours Saturday night. Went close to
guidance for low temperatures Saturday night with lows in the
20s.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 22 2017, 04:42 PM
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.
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StormChazer
post Dec 22 2017, 05:10 PM
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Water starting to freeze up on the trees here in Tulsa. NWS thinking 1-3 inches, 2-4 in some places.
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jdrenken
post Dec 22 2017, 06:57 PM
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STL graphic
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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
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snowlover2
post Dec 22 2017, 09:01 PM
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0z NAM
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# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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grace
post Dec 22 2017, 09:33 PM
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NAM 3km a little further south & a little stronger
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snowlover2
post Dec 22 2017, 10:33 PM
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0z GFS
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# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Dec 22 2017, 10:36 PM
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# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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snowlover2
post Dec 23 2017, 12:57 AM
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0z Euro gets the 2" line down to I-70.
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# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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jdrenken
post Dec 23 2017, 01:01 AM
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I'm in St. Louis South County and it's a cold rain.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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