Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

11 Pages V  « < 9 10 11  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
weatherboss
post Sep 21 2017, 01:57 PM
Post #201




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 160
Joined: 24-August 09
From: Gaithersburg, MD
Member No.: 19,036





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2017, 01:05 AM) *
This definitely has better potential to be a multi-year Nina than the one last winter.

Is this because of how it's forming or because of it's strength (or potential strength?)

Didn't think either really affected duration...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 21 2017, 11:42 PM
Post #202




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,614
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(weatherboss @ Sep 21 2017, 02:57 PM) *
Is this because of how it's forming or because of it's strength (or potential strength?)

Didn't think either really affected duration...

Not sure if there's a connection between strength and length. But I say that because of how it's forming along with the subsurface.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 21 2017, 11:43 PM
Post #203




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,614
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Anyone else read this and think about what that'd do to the SSTs? No? Dang, ok laugh.gif

QUOTE
North Korea could test hydrogen bomb over Pacific Ocean, says foreign minister

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/21/politics/kim...ents/index.html

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 21 2017, 11:50 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 23 2017, 12:07 AM
Post #204




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,267
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(weatherboss @ Sep 21 2017, 02:57 PM) *
Is this because of how it's forming or because of it's strength (or potential strength?)

Didn't think either really affected duration...

There are larger negative anomalies father below the surface this year than last year. Vertical motions in the ocean are slow, but easterly trade winds will eventually bring them to the surface.

Generally speaking though ENSO is a phenomena that kills itself through feedback mechanisms, particularly the El Nino phase. Historically, strong El Nino events are followed by multi year La Nina episodes.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 23 2017, 02:08 AM
Post #205




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,614
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





And La Ninas are more likely to be longer-lived than El Nino.

1) El Ninos encourage more active thunderstorms than normal, which naturally stabilizes the atmosphere and ocean

2) El Nino is an entire reversal of the climatological pattern, whereas Nina is simply an enhancement. It's harder to maintain a reversal pattern than it is to maintain an enhancement.

That's why the record continuous length of an El Nino was this past El Nino event (19 months >0.5 ONI), and the record continuous length of La Nina is 29 months <-0.5 ONI.

If you want a long-lived or significant event, then there's ways you want the event to start. If it's a long-lived or significant Nino, then you need the event to start near the IDL because that's where some of the warmest waters in the world are and the WWBs will push it east.

If you want a long-lived or significant Nina, then you want it to start along the western coast of South America because that's where some of the coolest subtropical water is. Enhanced trade winds will do 2 things... push the cooler water west, and it will encourage upwelling which also keeps the SSTs cool


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 23 2017, 09:34 AM
Post #206




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,267
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 23 2017, 03:08 AM) *
And La Ninas are more likely to be longer-lived than El Nino.

1) El Ninos encourage more active thunderstorms than normal, which naturally stabilizes the atmosphere and ocean

2) El Nino is an entire reversal of the climatological pattern, whereas Nina is simply an enhancement. It's harder to maintain a reversal pattern than it is to maintain an enhancement.

That's why the record continuous length of an El Nino was this past El Nino event (19 months >0.5 ONI), and the record continuous length of La Nina is 29 months <-0.5 ONI.

If you want a long-lived or significant event, then there's ways you want the event to start. If it's a long-lived or significant Nino, then you need the event to start near the IDL because that's where some of the warmest waters in the world are and the WWBs will push it east.

If you want a long-lived or significant Nina, then you want it to start along the western coast of South America because that's where some of the coolest subtropical water is. Enhanced trade winds will do 2 things... push the cooler water west, and it will encourage upwelling which also keeps the SSTs cool

Well said!

My only criticism is with 1) ... thunderstorms are normally active along the equator, El Nino shifts the position of thunderstorm activity away from the Western Pacific warm pool (i.e. reversal of Walker Circulation climatology).


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

11 Pages V  « < 9 10 11
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th September 2017 - 05:17 PM