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> Jan 30-31 MidATL/NE clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 days]
Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 28 2012, 05:17 PM
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This looks to be mainly an interior event, good amount of snow showers over the next couple days..

18z gfs clipper
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18z gfs 72 hr precip
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 28 2012, 05:19 PM
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KALB

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOWERING
INVERSION...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THE SHORT-WAVE IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE TONIGHT. THE STRONG
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
FOCUS A ROBUST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM W-CNTRL NY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WE INCREASED THE POPS PREDOMINANTLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHC VALUES...EXCEPT LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL VALUES OVER THE WRN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SRN DACKS. WE WENT CLOSE TO GFSMOS MAX TEMPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE U30S TO L40S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW M40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U20S TO M30S OVER THE MTNS.

TOMORROW NIGHT...THE POTENT VORT MAX AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TIED TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS SE QUEBEC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE STRONG CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD ONE INCH AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE WRN DACKS COULD GET ANOTHER 1 TO 4
INCHES...AS LAKE EFFECT STARTS AGAIN. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND L20S IN THE VALLEYS...AS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS OVER THE REGION.

MONDAY...ANOTHER BRIEF LAKE CONNECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
THIS TIME A 290 DEGREE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE SW DACKS...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS IMPACTED.
WE COULD SEE A BAND SNEAK DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND WE KEPT SOME SLIGHT-LOW CHC POPS IN FOR THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. RIGHT NOW...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEST OF ALBANY WOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY WITH THE FLOW BEGINNING TO BACK AGAIN...AND THE INVERSION
LOWERING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AGAIN. H850 TEMPS
TUMBLE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AT -13C TO -16C OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO M20S OVER THE MTNS




http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 28 2012, 05:23 PM
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18z nam


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 28 2012, 05:27 PM
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KBGM

QUOTE
A RATHER POTENT UPR-LVL WAVE AND SFC COLD FRNT ARE STILL PROGGED TO
COME THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUN AFTN AND SUN EVE. LOOK FOR
-SHRA/-SHSN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN CVRG EARLY TO MID-AFTN
SUN...AS THESE SYSTEMS NEAR. LATE IN THE DAY AND SUN
EVE...PRONOUNCED DPVA ALOFT...GOOD LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ALG THE SFC
BNDRY...AND A DEEP UNSTABLE LYR...SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AT LEAST SCTD SQUALLS NEAR THE TIME OF FROPA (WINDEX TYPE
EVENT). ADDITIONALLY...AS THE PCPN STRUCTURE PERHAPS ACQUIRES A
COMMA-HEAD TYPE SHAPE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR-LVL
SYSTEM...ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN COULD DEVELOP IN OUR NRN ZNS
DURG THIS TIME FRAME. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL ATTM...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNALS THERE THAT SOME HEAVIER...HIGH IMPACT SHSN LATE
SUN INTO SUN EVE COULD OCCUR. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MENTIONED IN
THE HWO.

LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS THE FLOW VEERS TO 280-290...850
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -14C...AND MIXED LYR DEPTHS RESIDE NEAR 750
MB...ANOTHER LES BAND SHOULD FORM. THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED TO
DIP DOWN TO NEAR KSYR...EXTENDING TWDS MADISON/SRN ONEIDA. NO
FLAGS ISSUED YET...BUT ACCUMS COULD APPCH ADVSY LVLS BY MIDDAY
MON.

MON NGT INTO EARLY TUE...OVERRUNNING/WAA LGT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED...AS A WARM FRNT APPCHS. A MUCH MILDER AMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE CWA BY TUE PM.



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 28 2012, 06:43 PM
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Local MET

QUOTE
Something you rarely see in January, instability with the cold front tomorrow. The lifted index is around 0 with the passing of the front. I would not be surprised if we get reports of thundersnow




http://www.wktv.com/weather/blogs
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jan 28 2012, 06:53 PM
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Can't even get a weak clipper system to bring snow to the Mid-Atlantic this winter.

Sad.


--------------------
-James
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 28 2012, 08:52 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Jan 28 2012, 06:53 PM) *
Can't even get a weak clipper system to bring snow to the Mid-Atlantic this winter.

Sad.

Agreed.....so lame dry.gif
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 28 2012, 11:48 PM
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no change with the 0z nam/gfs



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greenteam13
post Jan 29 2012, 12:37 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jan 28 2012, 11:48 PM) *
no change with the 0z nam/gfs

Attached Image


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so what kind of accums are we to expect?


--------------------
2017/2018 Snowfall Total: 67"
2016/2017 Snowfall Total: 71 1/2"
2015/2016 Snowfall Total: 16 1/2"
2014/2015 Snowfall Total: 78"
2013/2014 snowfall total: 73 1/2"
2012/2013 snowfall total: 53 1/2"
2011/2012 snowfall total: 27 1/2"
2010/2011 snowfall total: 85"
2009/2010 snowfall total: 52"
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 29 2012, 01:43 PM
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Classic NYC dry slot

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION AS WELL AS BLOWING
SNOW. SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

* TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID MORNING ON MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S LATE TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY A HALF MILE TO A MILE OCCASIONALLY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE.




http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...eather+Advisory
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE
The cold front looks very impressive for this evening. I would advise people to not travel between 6-9PM. The front is going to bring snow squalls, white out conditions and a flash freeze. Maybe even more thunder and lightning.




http://www.wktv.com/weather/blogs
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(greenteam13 @ Jan 29 2012, 12:37 PM) *
so what kind of accums are we to expect?

This is what the NWS expects


http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm
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ilovethesnow223
post Jan 29 2012, 04:10 PM
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does anybody else notice that low pressure in the great lakesd was that modeled to happen this early? what implications might this have for tonight? it is a weak low right now but from what i have seen from the models there is not supposed to be a low pressure there right now. it was suppose to develop later. anyone want to comment on that?
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 04:41 PM
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looking good for my neck of the woods..

QUOTE
THIS ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE AREA AVERAGING OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY CRESTING ACROSS
THE FA AND THEN SLIDING EAST OF THE FA BY EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID TO UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST.


QUOTE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THE FA IS EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED BY A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST QPF FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY NORTH IN NEW YORK AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS EVENT
GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FA WITH MOST OTHER AREAS HAVING AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW.




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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 29 2012, 04:43 PM
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QUOTE(ilovethesnow223 @ Jan 29 2012, 04:10 PM) *
does anybody else notice that low pressure in the great lakesd was that modeled to happen this early? what implications might this have for tonight? it is a weak low right now but from what i have seen from the models there is not supposed to be a low pressure there right now. it was suppose to develop later. anyone want to comment on that?

NWS

QUOTE
.FIRST BATCH OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACKS WITH THE FIRST BOUNDARY WITH THE MAIN EVENT YET TO
FOLLOW AS THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK



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loafer1989
post Jan 29 2012, 05:12 PM
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Between these two systems it looks like I could get up to 1" tonight and then another 1" on monday night with the warm front.


--------------------














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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 29 2012, 07:00 PM
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QUOTE(ilovethesnow223 @ Jan 29 2012, 04:10 PM) *
does anybody else notice that low pressure in the great lakesd was that modeled to happen this early? what implications might this have for tonight? it is a weak low right now but from what i have seen from the models there is not supposed to be a low pressure there right now. it was suppose to develop later. anyone want to comment on that?

That is not a closed low pressure... the Mesoanalysis is a very close match to the latest models by not showing a closed low. The low pressure won't close until it gets to Maine at the very earliest.
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greenteam13
post Jan 29 2012, 07:59 PM
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This winter is frusterating to say the least...This is a storm that most would normally take with a grain of salt, but were on a forum where most won't see more than 2"...


--------------------
2017/2018 Snowfall Total: 67"
2016/2017 Snowfall Total: 71 1/2"
2015/2016 Snowfall Total: 16 1/2"
2014/2015 Snowfall Total: 78"
2013/2014 snowfall total: 73 1/2"
2012/2013 snowfall total: 53 1/2"
2011/2012 snowfall total: 27 1/2"
2010/2011 snowfall total: 85"
2009/2010 snowfall total: 52"
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HV Snowstorm
post Jan 29 2012, 09:09 PM
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QUOTE(greenteam13 @ Jan 29 2012, 08:59 PM) *
This winter is frusterating to say the least...This is a storm that most would normally take with a grain of salt, but were on a forum where most won't see more than 2"...


Anybody think we could see a quick inch or two out of the first line of snow coming through looks like it could be a nice burst ??!?
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