 Jan. 3-4 MidAtl Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days) Forecast |
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 Jan 1 2013, 05:00 PM
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#221
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 5,604 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084  |
Models are showing a storm possibility somewhere between hours 96 and 132. So we may need to change the thread to the 6-7th instead of the 3-4th. Nova Scotia will get snow from this system from a norlun trough.
3-4th system: A swing and a miss, this system will only give Nova Scotia a few snow showers, maybe a little more, this is the first in three northern stream disturbances ripping through the upper level flow. 6-7th system: a potential phase between the northern and southern jet streams, as a southern stream system breaks off from the jet and then heads into the southwest roaming through the ridge and then the flow amplifies again as backside ridging develops and frontside ridging begins to develop. Models are all over the place with timing differences and any potential phasing. Nonetheless they show a reasonable system for this period. |
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Jan 1 2013, 05:08 PM
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#222
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,604 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084 |
18z GFS shows a frontal passage for the 6-7th system, but in my beliefs this will change and become a rather interesting phase scenario in later runs. All it takes is a nudge in the right direction and we could be looking at a blizzard. Just saying. We need a 6-7th thread, has a better chance of producing.
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Jan 1 2013, 05:37 PM
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#223
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 31,409 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Jan 1 2013, 04:00 PM)  Models are showing a storm possibility somewhere between hours 96 and 132. So we may need to change the thread to the 6-7th instead of the 3-4th. Nova Scotia will get snow from this system from a norlun trough. 3-4th system: A swing and a miss, this system will only give Nova Scotia a few snow showers, maybe a little more, this is the first in three northern stream disturbances ripping through the upper level flow. 6-7th system: a potential phase between the northern and southern jet streams, as a southern stream system breaks off from the jet and then heads into the southwest roaming through the ridge and then the flow amplifies again as backside ridging develops and frontside ridging begins to develop. Models are all over the place with timing differences and any potential phasing. Nonetheless they show a reasonable system for this period. The dates don't change on that premise. The GFS has shown hints of a system for the 6th-7th a few times in the LR. Nobody pulled the trigger. Per the major forecasting arms of NOAA, the original system is still there...just not how many hoped it would be. -------------------- |
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Jan 1 2013, 06:17 PM
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#224
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
Wouldnt mind some snow showers ;p
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Jan 2 2013, 06:45 AM
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#225
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 3,904 Joined: 19-December 08 From: Mercerville, NJ Member No.: 16,588 |
QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Jan 1 2013, 05:08 PM) 18z GFS shows a frontal passage for the 6-7th system, but in my beliefs this will change and become a rather interesting phase scenario in later runs. All it takes is a nudge in the right direction and we could be looking at a blizzard. Just saying. We need a 6-7th thread, has a better chance of producing. You think every storm has a chance for a phase. 
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Jan 2 2013, 11:16 AM
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#226
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 721 Joined: 17-January 08 Member No.: 12,622 |
Latest GFS model shows that storm on the 6-7 moved a lot more west. Looks interesting. 5 days out so things can change.
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Jan 2 2013, 11:53 AM
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#227
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 581 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Queens, NY Member No.: 12,436 |
QUOTE(jrdrnt @ Jan 2 2013, 11:16 AM) Latest GFS model shows that storm on the 6-7 moved a lot more west. Looks interesting. 5 days out so things can change. It is still a few hundred miles wide right though... |
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Jan 3 2013, 12:30 AM
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#228
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
QUOTE(MIKEM81 @ Jan 2 2013, 12:53 PM) It is still a few hundred miles wide right though... Ill take that ;p |
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Jan 3 2013, 12:30 AM
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#229
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,259 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(shane o mac @ Jan 3 2013, 12:30 AM) Ill take that ;p It's a flat flow. Not only is there barely even any low pressure with this, but Nova Scotia is just as far away. The low only develops once it's to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 3 2013, 12:31 AM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Jan 3 2013, 12:46 AM
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#230
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 3 2013, 01:30 AM) It's a flat flow. Not only is there barely even any low pressure with this, but Nova Scotia is just as far away. The low only develops once it's to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Ok on to the next one ;p |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 18th May 2013 - 11:46 AM |