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> Dec. 22nd-24th Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range (4-8 days out) Forecast
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 15 2017, 05:45 AM
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I'm not doing this because I think it actually has potential, but more so for the fact to take it out of the White Christmas thread laugh.gif and also honestly because there does seem to be icing potential on the holiday itself for a portion of the US.

The ECM looked more like the 00z GFS

the 06z GFS looks like it went back to the storm idea

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Dec 19 2017, 02:22 PM
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Undertakerson
post Dec 15 2017, 05:49 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 15 2017, 05:45 AM) *
I'm not doing this because I think it actually has potential, but more so for the fact to take it out of the White Christmas thread laugh.gif and also honestly because there does seem to be icing potential on the holiday itself for a portion of the US.

The ECM looked more like the 00z GFS

the 06z GFS looks like it went back to the storm idea

Was thinking of doing same for the East, this morning. Huge Implications for just about everyone E of the MS, honestly, and deserves separate discussion from generic Christmas thread.

Not sure which thread I posted it in, but with a decent SER and a backing SHP of import bringing in cold air - the clash zone will be meteorologically violent.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 15 2017, 05:50 AM
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Ice and snow maps, you can tell this is not a ripe snow setup as is

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Dec 15 2017, 05:51 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 15 2017, 05:54 AM
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CMC with its own solution also
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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 15 2017, 05:58 AM
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for being an ensemble usually reliable for fantasy runs this far out...this is substantially shocking to see the lack of solutions for a big storm (this is 00z)

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ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 15 2017, 06:01 AM
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closer look at something still 9-10 days out mind, please don't go running and telling your friends and co-workers an ice storm is coming laugh.gif . The ECM doesnt even have a storm

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grace
post Dec 15 2017, 06:47 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 15 2017, 05:01 AM) *
closer look at something still 9-10 days out mind, please don't go running and telling your friends and co-workers an ice storm is coming laugh.gif . The ECM doesnt even have a storm



Euro lost it altogether
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MaineJay
post Dec 15 2017, 08:14 AM
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This thread brought me back to this.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...3044&st=380


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jdrenken
post Dec 15 2017, 08:29 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 15 2017, 07:14 AM) *


I've had quite a few people on Facebook ask me about what happened with that storm and what is the hoopla about 25" of snow for central mo making it's rounds on FB.


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BuckeyeDiva
post Dec 15 2017, 08:40 AM
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This reminds me of the Dec. 23rd, 2004 storm.. an inch of ice followed by 8-9 inches of snow. Crippled holiday travel. Have no idea if the set-up is the same, though. Obviously definitely not the backend snow as currently depicted!


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Big Ant
post Dec 15 2017, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 15 2017, 06:47 AM) *
Euro lost it altogether


Let's hope it comes back pretty quickly. If not, I fear the worst. A typical Kentucky Christmas. rolleyes.gif
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MichelleOH
post Dec 15 2017, 10:10 AM
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I would rather have nothing than ice for the travelers. I'll start paying close attention around Wednesday. wink.gif
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DrewNola
post Dec 15 2017, 10:58 AM
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Many here in Nola are talking ice/snow for Christmas eve. How plausible is that scenario?
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Juniorrr
post Dec 15 2017, 11:05 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 15 2017, 08:14 AM) *


Yep was gonna post about that several times. That one was weird, it happened but the energy got cutoff in the deep SW where we all thought the Euro was wrong since it tends to hold energy back there. The ice was still significant but occurred in a smaller area than what could have been.

QUOTE(DrewNola @ Dec 15 2017, 10:58 AM) *
Many here in Nola are talking ice/snow for Christmas eve. How plausible is that scenario?

Plausible, we are quite early still
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Juniorrr
post Dec 15 2017, 11:14 AM
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12z GFS continues with the 06z, first wave dug deep into the SW. When the wave on 06z and 12z GFS entered the PAC NW, the ridge was stronger than 0z GFS .


Editing instead of 3 posts in a row:

On the 12z GFS the cutoff is stuck, misses a phase or kicker(06z had it) so it continues to pump moisture into TX and surrounding states.

12z CMC the first wave is essentially sheared and the next wave comes in pretty mean looking at the end of the run.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Dec 15 2017, 11:32 AM
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JymGanahlRocks
post Dec 15 2017, 11:40 AM
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12z GFS for OH, IN, IL, Mizzou, KS & IA =
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RobB
post Dec 15 2017, 11:41 AM
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If I had to choose ZR or a miss...I'll take the 'miss' on Christmas. Normally I wouldn't mind a bit of ice, just not whilst visiting on Christmas Day.
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grace
post Dec 15 2017, 11:45 AM
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Models struggling bigtime with N. PAC which is leading to the run to run differences
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Big Ant
post Dec 15 2017, 12:59 PM
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Louisville NWS Forecast Discussion from this morning:

"Friday into the Week of Christmas...

A strong cold front will pass through the region some time on Fri
bringing showers and perhaps some t-storms as well. The airmass
behind this front will cool temps off into the 30s/lower 40s for
highs.

0Z model guidance has trended drier the week of Christmas indicating
the cold front/airmass will sink further south than previous runs.
If this solution plays out with the cold airmass push as far south
as the Gulf states, any mixed wintry precip would likely stay to our
south. The Ohio Valley would be colder than normal and relatively
dry assuming no major clipper systems move through.

However, this is only one model run suite amongst many that will
continue to offer a wide range of solutions for Christmas week
weather. Stay tuned for the latest Christmas week forecasts!"
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Juniorrr
post Dec 15 2017, 01:49 PM
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12z Euro is similar to 12z GFS, cuts off in the deep SW. Kicker on Euro is closer to connecting than on the GFS.

QPF is almost ditto the 12z GFS but I'm assuming it will be more since the cutoff is closer to ejecting than on the 12z GFS.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Dec 15 2017, 01:55 PM
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