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> Long Range Spring 2018--Outlooks, Thoughts, and Discussions, Spring is only one season away
NorEaster07
post May 16 2018, 12:17 PM
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#1. Enough with the rainy days. My god it's like everyday now. (6 of last 7 days)

#2. Update: Danbury, CT temps this spring.

You still don't need 2 hands to count the number of full clear sunny days with temps staying in the 60s.

Attached File  temps20.jpg ( 320.66K ) Number of downloads: 3



Also note the max temps past 6 days.
68°
56°
53°
71°
85°
63°

#Swings
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WeatherMonger
post May 16 2018, 02:41 PM
Post #842




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QUOTE(alczervik @ May 16 2018, 11:03 AM) *
I would take this everyday if possible.

I would give it to you if possible laugh.gif

If it was a dry heat it wouldn't be too bad or if i had a desk job to where I was only out in it a few times a day.


Give me upper 70's lower 80's and DP's in the 40's and I'd be good.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 16 2018, 09:42 PM
Post #843




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 16 2018, 03:41 PM) *
I would give it to you if possible laugh.gif

If it was a dry heat it wouldn't be too bad or if i had a desk job to where I was only out in it a few times a day.
Give me upper 70's lower 80's and DP's in the 40's and I'd be good.

Agreed. In the summer I work 60 hours/week as a lifeguard at an amusement/water park, always in the sun, little to no shade. As far as temps go, we have it a little better than you guys in central IL because it seems to be a little hotter and more humid where you live... but not by much usually.

80's is definitely the best. 70's is too cold, and everyone wants to go to the water park when it's 90+ degrees and end up with heat exhaustion.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 16 2018, 09:45 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Undertakerson
post May 17 2018, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 16 2018, 01:17 PM) *
#1. Enough with the rainy days. My god it's like everyday now. (6 of last 7 days)

#2. Update: Danbury, CT temps this spring.

You still don't need 2 hands to count the number of full clear sunny days with temps staying in the 60s.

Attached File  temps20.jpg ( 320.66K ) Number of downloads: 3

Also note the max temps past 6 days.
68°
56°
53°
71°
85°
63°

#Swings

OFM signal (primarily, the BSR) doesn't really hold out much hope for any drastic changes - perhaps right up until astronomical summer

What SER? Maybe some SWF can keep temps "up" but long stretches of fair weather, in most of the East, seem unlikely odds ATTM.

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-06-June.htm

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 17 2018, 06:06 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 17 2018, 08:42 PM
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Dang blink.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Solstice
post May 17 2018, 09:43 PM
Post #846




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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Sighted a Luna Moth.


I wish I could be happier. But the thought of it being reduced to a decomposing wreck in under a week, is well, a bit too somber.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post May 18 2018, 05:46 AM
Post #847




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Not trying to show verbatim solutions here, but the connection to the ITCZ is both evident and a bit ominous,

Attached File  gfs_apcpn_atl_42.png ( 181.86K ) Number of downloads: 5
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Ahoff
post May 18 2018, 06:24 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 17 2018, 09:42 PM) *
Dang blink.gif



After March and April we deserve this. Just not all the rain I've been seeing.
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MotownWX
post May 18 2018, 08:29 AM
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May has been great. A few of the showery waves have been poorly timed nailing weekends lately, but all in all, no complaints here. Glad to see some of those monthly forecasts, which called for below-normal temps in the GL, go bust.

Looks like that pool of cold Eastern Canadian air didn't really exit the region, it's still hanging around northern Quebec and New Foundland. But it's been contained. They probably expected its tentacles to continue punching into the NE US, but fortunately it didn't (aside from May 11-12).
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Solstice
post May 18 2018, 06:03 PM
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Finally got around to those tree slices from the 03/07/18 storm, in case anyone was interested. Apologies for the poor handwriting.




This post has been edited by Solstice: May 18 2018, 06:03 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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NorEaster07
post May 19 2018, 09:38 AM
Post #851




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 17 2018, 08:42 PM) *
Dang blink.gif



The orange +2-4 for here is mostly because of the 1st 5 days only. Also the warm nights.

Look at the max temps after the 5th.. only 4 days were above normal.
Yet almost every night was above this month

Attached File  month_05__year_2018__station_BDR__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100.png ( 55.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: May 19 2018, 09:40 AM
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MaineJay
post May 20 2018, 06:50 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 19 2018, 10:38 AM) *
The orange +2-4 for here is mostly because of the 1st 5 days only. Also the warm nights.

Look at the max temps after the 5th.. only 4 days were above normal.
Yet almost every night was above this month



Been a nice run up here.

Attached File  network_ME_ASOS__station_LEW__month_5__year_2018__dpi_100__1_.png ( 59.2K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  network_ME_ASOS__station_IZG__month_5__year_2018__dpi_100__1_.png ( 60.24K ) Number of downloads: 1


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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kpk33x
post May 20 2018, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 16 2018, 12:17 PM) *
#1. Enough with the rainy days. My god it's like everyday now. (6 of last 7 days)

#2. Update: Danbury, CT temps this spring.

You still don't need 2 hands to count the number of full clear sunny days with temps staying in the 60s.

Attached File  temps20.jpg ( 320.66K ) Number of downloads: 3

Also note the max temps past 6 days.
68°
56°
53°
71°
85°
63°

#Swings


We didn't get spring out here either. After April being nearly 7F below normal (and almost 10F heading into the last 10 days) we quickly went to 5-10F above normal. Temperatures getting into the 80s and even low 90s. It also - minus thunderstorms - dried out.

It went from being too cold to paint/stain outside to getting heat exhaustion from doing it. But I did NOT want to be doing it in June so I bit the bullet the last 2 weeks.

I really hope that this pattern breaks, because this will create a hot, droughty summer here.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 21 2018, 02:22 AM
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Euro has a weird phenomenon. A subtropical trough becomes established on Friday, making "landfall" on the US on Sunday night. The trough then barely moves at all, even strengthens the winds aloft. This dumps well over a foot on Louisiana. At hour 240 it's still in the same area it has been since hour 156. Would be a terrible flash flooding/flooding event.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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MotownWX
post May 21 2018, 07:01 AM
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I'm sitting at my 11th wettest May on record. With the rain expected tonight and this coming Memorial Day weekend ( mad.gif ), that oughta push me well into the Top 10.
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NorEaster07
post May 23 2018, 05:44 AM
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So lets recap this "spring"..

March = Winter
April = Winter
May = Clouds

May 12: Overcast morning and all day. 0 Hours of sun
May 13: Overcast morning and all day. 0 Hours of sun
May 14: Overcast morning. 4 Hours of sun
May 15: Overcast morning. 2 Hours of sun
May 16: Overcast morning and all day. 0 Hours of sun
May 17: Overcast morning and all day. 0 Hours of sun
May 18: Overcast morning. 1 Hour of sun
May 19: Overcast morning. 0 Hours of sun
May 20: Overcast morning. 2 Hours of sun
May 21: Sunny Morning and all day. 12 Hours of sun
May 22: Overcast morning. 0 Hours of sun
May 23: Overcast morning.

Update for Danbury, CT. I'm surprised the 18th was clear with 60s because I was cloudy. But only 11 total days in the 60s and only 7 of them with sun.

Attached File  temps25.jpg ( 329.69K ) Number of downloads: 1

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MotownWX
post May 23 2018, 09:15 AM
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Long-range GFS shows chilly Eastern Canadian trough/stalled low blowing into the Midwest and Northeast US around Hour 288. Mid-April style showers and sweatshirt weather if that happens.

Hopefully being that far out, it's just a false flag. It's the family vacation week to Lake Michigan and would rather not freeze.

EDIT: Sorry, probably should've gone in the Summer thread.

This post has been edited by MotownWX: May 23 2018, 09:23 AM
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 23 2018, 10:12 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 21 2018, 03:22 AM) *
Euro has a weird phenomenon. A subtropical trough becomes established on Friday, making "landfall" on the US on Sunday night. The trough then barely moves at all, even strengthens the winds aloft. This dumps well over a foot on Louisiana. At hour 240 it's still in the same area it has been since hour 156. Would be a terrible flash flooding/flooding event.




Last year also had a weird trough in the western GOM which helped slow the pattern and allowed harvey to come in and sit as well. Cant say I have seen that too many times. Definitely something to keep an eye on into summer as this could have prolific rainfalls across the gulf coast states. Florida needs the rains but not at once it seems they get a deluge and then just essentially shuts off except for the occasional sea breeze interaction which hurts them in the long run.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post May 23 2018, 05:53 PM
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This isn't good, could be a major disappointment for GOES17

QUOTE
Cooling failure threatens NOAA’s newest weather satellite


http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/05/coo...ather-satellite


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 24 2018, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 23 2018, 06:53 PM) *
This isn't good, could be a major disappointment for GOES17
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/05/coo...ather-satellite


Oh no!


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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