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> Spring 2018, Seasonal thread
travis3000
post May 16 2018, 05:16 PM
Post #481




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,873
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





Spring is even nicer way up here away from Lake Ontario, temps are warmer, for instance today we hit 25.2C with pure blue sky. Here's May so far in Alliston:

May 1st= 28.5C
May 2nd= 25.4C
May 3rd= 17.4C
May 4th= 25.2C
May 5th= 24.9C
May 6th= 20.3C
May 7th= 18.2C
May 8th= 24.2C
May 9th= 26.7C
May 10th= 18.6C
May 11th= 11.0C
May 12th= 16.9C
May 13th= 22.0C
May 14th= 26.4C
May 15th= 17.1C
May 16th= 25.2C

Avg High= 21.75C
Norm= 18.0C

Couldn't be happier, considering its been sunny 5/7 days this month. Feels like a total different season compared to April.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post May 16 2018, 05:18 PM
Post #482




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,873
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ May 16 2018, 03:22 PM) *
Stunning day here with mainly sunny conditions and temp at 18C. May could not be more different from April and blows last years away.


You guys are up to 22C now wink.gif


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post May 16 2018, 05:28 PM
Post #483




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,873
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





QUOTE(tml78 @ May 16 2018, 02:32 PM) *
Just wondering why EC is having such a hard time. Is it just southern ontario? or all of the country during the season transition?


The models are too cold thats why. EC is just transmitting data from the models. For instance the GFS and HRDPS output from yesterday had the daytime high for today at 67-68F which is 19.5 to 20C , The CMC runs had us at 66F as did the NAM....In reality we hit 77F or 25C. That's a big number to be incorrect.

Any sunny day this month, all models have been averaging 2C to 6C too cold for most of Southern ON.

CMC and GFS are predicting highs tomorrow for Southern ON to be 20C , I will bet my net worth it will end up warmer than that in areas that aren't impacted by lake breezes. Both models are again predicting highs on Friday to be 15-16C , again lets just wait and see how stupid they end up looking on that prediction. The weekend keeps changing with every run so Im not even going to get into that yet but I guarantee if that sun is out, the models will be totally out to lunch.

This post has been edited by travis3000: May 17 2018, 07:11 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post May 17 2018, 11:49 AM
Post #484




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,568
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





EC...time to throw your models in the garbage.

Forecast high today of 19. Currently 25 feeling like 30. Their model has been just awful for the better part of 2 months now. Way cooler than reality every. single. day.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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travis3000
post May 17 2018, 12:01 PM
Post #485




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,873
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





QUOTE(MrMusic @ May 17 2018, 12:49 PM) *
EC...time to throw your models in the garbage.

Forecast high today of 19. Currently 25 feeling like 30. Their model has been just awful for the better part of 2 months now. Way cooler than reality every. single. day.


All the models should be thrown in the garbage right now. Even the GFS and NAM are coming in too cool.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post May 17 2018, 12:43 PM
Post #486




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,955
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





Incredible, perfect day here this afternoon! 22C and not a cloud in the sky topped off with a nice light breeze. The perfect day in my books biggrin.gif cool.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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MrMusic
post May 17 2018, 10:08 PM
Post #487




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 4,568
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





QUOTE(travis3000 @ May 17 2018, 01:01 PM) *
All the models should be thrown in the garbage right now. Even the GFS and NAM are coming in too cool.


down in my neck of the woods those two models have been far more accurate in recent months. Especially the GFS. This week has been nice and warm as the GFS said it would. the Canadian models are on a roll...and not a good one. Lol

Tomorrow looking interesting here. No models have it warm as we get an ENE wind to 50km. But again, Canadian models have a high of 12. NAM and GFS have us getting to 16.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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travis3000
post May 19 2018, 03:26 PM
Post #488




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,873
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





QUOTE(MrMusic @ May 17 2018, 11:08 PM) *
down in my neck of the woods those two models have been far more accurate in recent months. Especially the GFS. This week has been nice and warm as the GFS said it would. the Canadian models are on a roll...and not a good one. Lol

Tomorrow looking interesting here. No models have it warm as we get an ENE wind to 50km. But again, Canadian models have a high of 12. NAM and GFS have us getting to 16.


GFS, CMC and NAM had us at 15-16C yesterday (we hit 20.5C) , so even without the wind issue they screwed up majorly. I see Hamilton peaked at 13.4C, Toronto at 16.8C.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post May 19 2018, 03:33 PM
Post #489




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,873
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





NAM has us hitting 12C today (we are currently sitting at 16C LOL) and they have us at 14C tomorrow.... something tells me we will beat that. Models have struggled this year and they are too cold 9/10 times.

This post has been edited by travis3000: May 19 2018, 05:39 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post May 19 2018, 03:39 PM
Post #490




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,873
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





Great week coming up, Mon-Fri look mostly sunny across S/E ON with highs in the 20 to 25C range each day.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post May 19 2018, 09:03 PM
Post #491




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,568
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





QUOTE(travis3000 @ May 19 2018, 04:33 PM) *
NAM has us hitting 12C today (we are currently sitting at 16C LOL) and they have us at 14C tomorrow.... something tells me we will beat that. Models have struggled this year and they are too cold 9/10 times.


you know it's bad when the GFS is most accurate. Lol


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Stl
post Yesterday, 12:08 PM
Post #492




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 289
Joined: 3-December 12
From: Montreal (Saint-Leonard)
Member No.: 27,276





I don't know if any of you know about www.yr.no but it's a good website to see the weather forecast from the EURO.
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