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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Ron in Miami
post Apr 20 2018, 07:18 PM
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Well the 2018 season kicks off in about 40 days, and aside from Maria the Caribbean was pretty quiet last year. With La Nina still not gone the chances of seeing El Nino lessen so the trade winds across the area would be more favorable. So this area should be monitored closely this year. Happy tracking everyone!

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MaineJay
post Apr 27 2018, 05:44 AM
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Don't forget Irma, that raked several islands in the Caribbean.


ECMWF shows a weak wave moving through the Caribbean.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 28 2018, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 27 2018, 06:44 AM) *
Don't forget Irma, that raked several islands in the Caribbean.
ECMWF shows a weak wave moving through the Caribbean.


Attached Image


GFS a little north of there with development over the past couple runs and actually tries to get something going maybe first named storm? Fits the idea of how I have seen some storms form in early and late season SW of ridge energy left over aloft pretty crazy if it did. Do you happen to know the earliest named system? Feel like we have been having different tropical seasons lately, maybe its just me.

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MaineJay
post Apr 29 2018, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 28 2018, 05:20 PM) *
GFS a little north of there with development over the past couple runs and actually tries to get something going maybe first named storm? Fits the idea of how I have seen some storms form in early and late season SW of ridge energy left over aloft pretty crazy if it did. Do you happen to know the earliest named system? Feel like we have been having different tropical seasons lately, maybe its just me.



Here's what I found with a quick search. It seems like is actually possible for a tropical system to form at any time of year, it just takes extraordinary circumstances. Not to mention, some of these "hybrid" like systems can blur the lines between barotropic and baroclinic systems.
QUOTE
Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Records

Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.

Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane

Earliest Category 3+ hurricane : Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951 (In May/June 1825 there was a major hurricane also, but there is less information available about it due to the records of the time.)

Earliest hurricane in existence in a calendar year: Hurricane Alice, January 1-6, 80mpg 1955 (and December 31, 1954), formed the previous year. The earliest tropical storm was Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-2006 (see below)


http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-records.php



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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 29 2018, 12:40 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 29 2018, 10:28 AM) *
Here's what I found with a quick search. It seems like is actually possible for a tropical system to form at any time of year, it just takes extraordinary circumstances. Not to mention, some of these "hybrid" like systems can blur the lines between barotropic and baroclinic systems.
http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-records.php


Yea I remember that systems can just about form any time of the year,it's just we tend to have issues because of shear and cooler waters from the end/start of the season.

I have always had issues with them naming Hybrid systems as they would tropical because technically we could have named the storm in the beginning of January since it was tropically originated had low level closed circulation and such, but here nor there. Cool stuff I think the last couple years have featured early systems then a break until about end of july/ early august before it gets going again.



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puttin
post May 3 2018, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 29 2018, 01:40 PM) *
Yea I remember that systems can just about form any time of the year,it's just we tend to have issues because of shear and cooler waters from the end/start of the season.

I have always had issues with them naming Hybrid systems as they would tropical because technically we could have named the storm in the beginning of January since it was tropically originated had low level closed circulation and such, but here nor there. Cool stuff I think the last couple years have featured early systems then a break until about end of july/ early august before it gets going again.


Hey there, I am travelling to Orlando for a week starting this weekend.... what are the chances of this tropical low ruining my holidays? Too late to cancel but being from the north, not sure what to expect. A total washout? If you could help me out, that would be great. Thanks.
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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(puttin @ May 3 2018, 10:46 AM) *
Hey there, I am travelling to Orlando for a week starting this weekend.... what are the chances of this tropical low ruining my holidays? Too late to cancel but being from the north, not sure what to expect. A total washout? If you could help me out, that would be great. Thanks.


You may be far enough north in Orlando to avoid most of the inclement weather but clouds and showers cant be ruled out for 3-5 days as this loops around South Florida and then heads NE across central Fla.

Decent circulation and outflow, may have a weak TS in next 24-36 hrs? Probably not but close.



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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 10:02 AM
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NWS says no chance of development

QUOTE
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1045 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is
associated with an upper-level low pressure system and a surface
trough. The system is forecast to move westward over the Florida
peninsula on Saturday with no significant development. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the
Bahamas and southern Florida through this weekend. Please monitor
products from your local weather office for more details. No
additional Special Outlooks on this system will be issued unless
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
.


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stretchct
post May 4 2018, 11:59 AM
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Good to see GOES East Tropical sectors are coming online. Wonder what they are doing with floaters and the central atl.

Here's a look today.




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First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
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First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
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MaineJay
post May 4 2018, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ May 4 2018, 12:59 PM) *
Good to see GOES East Tropical sectors are coming online. Wonder what they are doing with floaters and the central atl.

Here's a look today.


There's always two random floaters available here, just gotta get lucky, and 5 minute imagery of CONUS.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

Here's a homemade floater... (insert joke here) tongue.gif

Attached Image

Doesn't really look tropical, almost like it's trying to build a storm from the top, working down.

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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 4 2018, 05:40 PM) *
Doesn't really look tropical, almost like it's trying to build a storm from the top, working down.

The upper level low on top is hampering its development but it is feisty and if anything would be a extra subtropical system if anything did pop. Vorticity is increasing at all levels from 925mb to 500mb level. From the moisture divergence/convergence to 700s and 850's she is stacking and we may see a surprise with this one. Even NHC has now conceded that development may occur within 48 hours (<40% chance) after that the strong SW flow from the "vigorous frontal cyclone over the central US" will rip it NE.

QUOTE
A cut-off upper vortex centered over the Bahamas is supporting a surface trough with showers and thunderstorms. This system shows signs of organization and has made it into the National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook. Therefore resuming daily birdseye view posts until this system subsides.

AREA OF INTEREST #1...A vigourous frontal cyclone over the central US is producing warm southwesterly flow over the eastern US/western Atlantic region...resutling in an upper-level ridge over the area. The protruding warm upper-level ridge has cut-off some relatively colder air over the Bahamas resutling in the formation of a cold core cut-off upper vortex over the Bahamas. Upper-level flow on the east side of the upper vortex is divergent as illustrated in the above charts...which is causing surface pressure drops and a resultant surface trough with showers and thunderstorms. Computer models show that the frontal cyclone and its supporting upper trough will quickly lift out to the northeast...allowing the aforementioned upper ridge and surface high pressure systems to stay intact to the north of this system. The upper ridge and surface high pressures will generally drive this system westward across the Bahamas and toward the Florida peninsula over the next 72 hours. The southern part of the frontal cyclone's cold core upper trough will be left behind and reach the east coast of the US by 72 hours...with the cold core upper trough absorbing this system's cold core cut-off upper vortex and increasing westerly vertical shear unfavorable for tropical development by that time. Therefore watching for any signs of development over the next 48 hours before conditions become unfavorable by 72 hours. If signs of tropical development occur...I will be doing tropical or subtropical cyclone formation forecasts for this system. - Beadt/NHC



Working its way down and stacking?

200MB
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500MB
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700MB
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850MB

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Divergence
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Convergence
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Non the less very interesting system early.

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 4 2018, 07:57 PM


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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 07:56 PM
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Broad circulation, the upper level center is just starting to make landfall on Cuba.





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so_whats_happeni...
post May 7 2018, 02:23 PM
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GFS has been fairly consistent with keeping a gyre moving westward and spinning off little tropical waves that seem to develop from thunderstorm complexes around northern Caribbean and Bahamas that will move west over time and throw off more and more waves and moisture. Might be able to spin up something off that feature toward mid may as the ridging becomes more established in the southeast.

GOM is a little cool right now but Caribbean is pretty warm and enough of a level to allow for some type of development if the atmos cooperates. Look to have something, if it can get together, within the mid may to late may timeframe.


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 7 2018, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ May 3 2018, 10:46 AM) *
Hey there, I am travelling to Orlando for a week starting this weekend.... what are the chances of this tropical low ruining my holidays? Too late to cancel but being from the north, not sure what to expect. A total washout? If you could help me out, that would be great. Thanks.


Sorry just saw this now but looks like the others have just covered it looks like end of the week the wave should make more of an entrance with southern Florida as they start to get into their wet season. If anything should see maybe some thunderstorm activity increase as the week moves on but overall warm and rather sunny! Enjoy it down there.

Also awesome satellite loops looks like we are dealing with a relatively decent ULL that may be able to spin something from time to time and throw up moisture along the east.


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MaineJay
post May 16 2018, 06:34 PM
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Fantasy range, but something there in all the models.


ECMWF
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GFS FV3
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CMC
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...1612&fh=222


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MaineJay
post May 17 2018, 04:07 AM
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ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all still showing a western Caribbean into the GOMEX system.

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Undertakerson
post May 17 2018, 05:42 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 17 2018, 05:07 AM) *
ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all still showing a western Caribbean into the GOMEX system.

Couple ensembles of the GFS suggest a "hook back into coast"/retrograde scenario - ala Agnes. Probably not what will play out but should monitor if that signal grows or fades.


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Undertakerson
post May 17 2018, 05:47 AM
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Regardless of the actual eventuality, I'm not "liking" the look of a crawler system moving up from the S while a potent front crosses the MS Vly region.

Something about the extrapolated plotting of both features, has a dark foreboding possibility.

Given that we, in the east, are having a small scale of that even as I type this - one might imagine this becomes, somewhat of a pattern.

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Undertakerson
post May 17 2018, 05:52 AM
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E.g. - supporting guidance via the BSR

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Using 6z GFS as starting point/ good idea of where the system enters the US region from the South, the BSR has it come up the EC and then retrograde, as seen in the image.

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018-05-May.htm


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Phased Vort
post May 18 2018, 02:14 PM
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Hello great people!

Todayīs 12Z ECMWF has a system trying to organize near the Yucatan some time next thursday or friday. Then it tracks NE or NNE towards the west cost or Florida and eventually NNW towards the central coast of the Florida panhandle by sunday May 27th as a 997mb tropial system.


If the pattern lacking a strong ridge tosteer the system to the west holds, thea pattern causing trofs over the southeast wins out, then itīs possible this system if it actually forms, tracks towards Florida.

Itīs still only 9 DAYS OUT... laugh.gif


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