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> May 9-15 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Medium-range: 4-8 day forecasts and observations
ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 02:10 PM
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Last night I was debating whether or not I should make a thread, decided to wait until tomorrow to wait and see what SPC and NAM says since there was some model disagreement.

SPC delineated a threat region


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Sun May 06 2018

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian and UKMET models are in general agreement
for Wednesday, moving an upper-level trough into the mid Mississippi
Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough are forecast to be in
the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of
moderate instability may develop across the mid Mississippi Valley
by afternoon. This combined with 30 to 40 kt of deep-layer shear
should be enough for an isolated severe threat from parts of
Missouri into Illinois and western Kentucky where a 15 percent
contour has been added. On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range
models move the upper-level trough eastward into the Northeast and
off the Atlantic Coast. The models suggest a front will be located
from the north-central U.S. into the Ohio Valley. This would be the
favored corridor for thunderstorm development each afternoon, along
which an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out. Any severe
threat would depend upon the timing of shortwave troughs and the
magnitude of destabilization.

...Saturday/Day 7 to Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the models suggest that an upper-level trough will be
located in the western U.S. with west to southwest mid-level flow
over the central and northeastern states. The ECMWF shows a corridor
of maximized low-level moisture from the lower Mississippi Valley
into the upper Ohio Valley while the GFS has the moist sector
further west. Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon along the northern edge of the moist sector where
mid-level flow is forecast to be stronger. The models vary
considerably on how far north the moist sector will be on Saturday.
On Sunday, the models move the upper-level trough across the Rockies
and maintain west to southwest mid-level flow from the Mississippi
Valley eastward. The models suggest a front could be located from
the southern Plains extending northeastward to the Ohio Valley.
Severe thunderstorms would be possible along the boundary where the
greatest instability develops Sunday afternoon. However, uncertainty
is considerable at this range in the forecast period.



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 6 2018, 03:16 AM) *
The May 9 system looks a lot like the April 3 system...




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 9 2018, 11:13 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 02:14 PM
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Parameters are certainly interesting.




Soundings for the EHI maxima for both models. GFS is very dry, how shocking.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 02:26 PM
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Latest GFS is showing potential for this time period to end up with a more significant event.

This looks intense, but nothing happens because everywhere east of the dryline has a strong cap.


As we saw with the April 3 event... the lack of convection in the Plains enhances the severe threat for the Midwest/OV/GL the next day because the EML is allowed to spread east without being interfered with by convection.



Sounding just south of Fort Wayne, IN.


Edit: SPC actually did mention this time period in their disco.

QUOTE
...Saturday/Day 7 to Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the models suggest that an upper-level trough will be
located in the western U.S. with west to southwest mid-level flow
over the central and northeastern states. The ECMWF shows a corridor
of maximized low-level moisture from the lower Mississippi Valley
into the upper Ohio Valley while the GFS has the moist sector
further west. Severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon along the northern edge of the moist sector where
mid-level flow is forecast to be stronger. The models vary
considerably on how far north the moist sector will be on Saturday.
On Sunday, the models move the upper-level trough across the Rockies
and maintain west to southwest mid-level flow from the Mississippi
Valley eastward. The models suggest a front could be located from
the southern Plains extending northeastward to the Ohio Valley.
Severe thunderstorms would be possible along the boundary where the
greatest instability develops Sunday afternoon. However, uncertainty
is considerable at this range in the forecast period.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 6 2018, 02:27 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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PlanetMaster
post May 6 2018, 03:19 PM
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This is interesting, TTB just added CAPE to their model runs.

QUOTE
May 6: A new CAPE/shear plot has been added for some models under "Thermodynamics" for some U.S. regions, Europe, India, and east Asia


For this time period GFS 12Z






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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 03:40 PM
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This is pretty crazy. About 4/5 of 105 GEFS-based analogs have at least 1 severe report in southern Ohio from May 11-14. A little over half has at least 10 severe reports.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 6 2018, 03:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 03:42 PM
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85% of GFS-based analogs have at least 1 severe report in SW Ohio, based on May 11.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 6 2018, 05:09 PM
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00z, 12z, and now 18z GFS have all come in with a stronger western trough around May 11.



Here's the kind of trough we were looking at yesterday.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 6 2018, 05:15 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post May 6 2018, 09:51 PM
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Winner winner chicken dinner!


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 7 2018, 12:14 AM
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The May 9 event looks marginal on NAM because of the lack of forcing.

A cap is still forecast to stop convection in the Plains on the 11th and 12th, allowing an EML to spill into the OV.

Lots of negatives with this setup. The jet stream is largely front-parallel, which supports linear storm mode. The way the system is oriented is also a negative.. clearly a positive tilt. Should help keep the forcing limited to the front... at best. Speed shear is enough for organized storms... directional shear is okay in the lowest kilometer or so but unidirectional above that.




On the positive side... nice EML overlapped with upper 60/lower 70 dew points leads to the strongest instability this region has seen so far this year. With low LCL and "okay" directional shear, could be some tornadoes with the squall.

Enhanced risk at best IMO. All of the problems I listed wouldn't be a thing if the system wasn't so positively tilted.

Sounding in SE IN near Ohio border


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 7 2018, 12:25 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 7 2018, 01:42 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 7 2018, 01:14 AM) *

Euro is a step in the right direction as it almost has a neutral tilt but it still has positive tilt problems.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post May 7 2018, 06:45 AM
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SPC has a 'Slight' for Day 3...by Broyles... blink.gif

Attached Image


Attached Image


CODE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon May 07 2018

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND PARTS OF ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms associated with severe hail and isolated
wind damage will be possible across parts of the mid Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance
eastward across Iowa and Missouri with a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture in place ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints
may be able to reach the low to mid 60s F across parts of the mid
Mississippi Valley by afternoon. If this occurs, then pockets of
moderate instability could develop in areas that warm sufficiently.
The increasing instability combined with enhanced low-level
convergence along and ahead of the front should result in scattered
thunderstorm development from west of the Chicago area southward to
around St Louis. This convection is forecast to move eastward across
the slight risk area during the late afternoon and early evening.
The NAM appears to be aggressive with moisture and instability.
Taking this into account would yield MLCAPE values in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range across western Illinois by late Wednesday afternoon.
This combined with 25 to 35 kt of 0-6 km shear and steep low-level
lapse rates could be enough for multicells associated with isolated
wind damage. Severe hail may also occur especially if moderate
instability can be realized across the slight risk area.

..Broyles.. 05/07/2018


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 7 2018, 12:29 PM
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GFS and NAM have some impressive parameters. Still skeptical with the low being so far away from the area and the cold front being so weak. Only real way you can tell where the front is is by the wind shift. Otherwise, nice southerly flow with westerlies aloft.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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idecline
post May 7 2018, 06:00 PM
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Attached Image


...sounding for tomorrow ...1800UTC...trying to figure out how to read these still...interesting though...near Virgil, SD...


Attached Image

CODE
SPC AC 071729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon May 07 2018

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from
southeast South Dakota south-southeastward into the lower Missouri
Valley.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern
Rockies/northern High Plains is expected to turn southeastward late
tonight and move across the northern/central Plains and into the
upper/mid MS Valley on Tuesday. Surface low attendant to this
shortwave is expected to move across central SD into
southern/central MN during the period while a secondary surface low
moves across central KS into the mid MO Valley. Surface trough
connecting these two features will act as an effective frontal
boundary, moving southeastward across much of the central Plains.
Temperatures differences on either side of this boundary will be
minimal but convergence along the boundary may contribute to
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the central
Plains. Thunderstorm development is also possible within the narrow
warm sector across the MO Valley.

...Mid/Lower MO Valley...
A narrow warm sector is expected to develop over the region between
the approaching surface trough and the drier air farther east across
the mid MS Valley. Modest, evapotranspiration-aided low-level
moisture is forecast to be in place by the early afternoon. Given
the origins of this low-level moisture, there is some question to
its depth and whether or not model progs of its presence can be
trusted. That being said, consensus amongst both the medium-range
and ensemble guidance is for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s.
This low-level moisture, when combined with steep mid-level lapse
rates and temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, supports at least
moderate instability (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg). Warm-air
advection, encouraged by a low-level jet moving into the region as
well as subtle forcing for ascent provided by the approaching
shortwave trough, will provide the impetus for convective initiation
during the afternoon and evening. The displacement between the
better low-level moisture (south) and the stronger forcing for
ascent (north) as well as differences in the guidance moisture
quality results in some uncertainty regarding overall convective
coverage across the region. As a result, the Marginal Risk area was
expanded slightly.

Aforementioned dynamic low-level jet expected to move into the
region during the afternoon, enhancing low-level flow but the flow
above about 800 mb is quite weak, resulting in relatively weak
overall bulk shear. This lack of stronger mid/upper-level flow is
expected to mitigate the overall severe potential as any storms that
do develop will likely struggle to maintain organization and
transition to a more linear/cluster character quickly. Even so,
thermodynamic profiles support the potential for hail with initial
updrafts. Additionally, backed surface winds and adequate low-level
flow also support the potential for brief tornado.

...Central SD/NE...
A few strong storms are possible along the surface trough as it
moves across the region during the afternoon and evening. However,
weak vertical shear and modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints a few
degrees less than areas farther east) should limit instability and
storm organization, mitigating overall storm strength.


This post has been edited by idecline: May 7 2018, 06:18 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 7 2018, 08:49 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ May 7 2018, 07:00 PM) *

Attached Image


...sounding for tomorrow ...1800UTC...trying to figure out how to read these still...interesting though...near Virgil, SD...


Attached Image

Sounding shows a lot of mostly elevated instability (instability is when the air parcel (dotted line) is warmer than the environment temp (red line))

Low-level winds are weak but out of the north and back (turn clockwise) with height, which tells you cold air advection is ongoing

Winds throughout the profile are weak (<30 knots), so organized storms are possible but not really likely. With how much instability there is, I'd imagine hail would be the primary threat but not a very good hail threat. Also might be some strong winds due to how dry the profile is.

For the April 11-13 event, looks like GFS has changed the story. It was showing a frontal passage through the region from the west but now looks like we're dealing with a stationary front that sags a little bit south with storms running along the front.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 7 2018, 09:23 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 7 2018, 09:49 PM) *
Sounding shows a lot of mostly elevated instability (instability is when the air parcel (dotted line) is warmer than the environment temp (red line))

Low-level winds are weak but out of the north and back (turn clockwise) with height, which tells you cold air advection is ongoing

Winds throughout the profile are weak (<30 knots), so organized storms are possible but not really likely. With how much instability there is, I'd imagine hail would be the primary threat but not a very good hail threat. Also might be some strong winds due to how dry the profile is.

For the April 11-13 event, looks like GFS has changed the story. It was showing a frontal passage through the region from the west but now looks like we're dealing with a stationary front that sags a little bit south with storms running along the front.

Not sure I really need to go through April again. tongue.gif laugh.gif


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# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 7 2018, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 7 2018, 10:23 PM) *
Not sure I really need to go through April again. tongue.gif laugh.gif

Eh, I wouldn't mind giving my finals another shot laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 7 2018, 10:11 PM
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0z 3k NAM has a nice broken line of storms crossing C IL through OH Wednesday evening/night.


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# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 7 2018, 11:14 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ May 7 2018, 11:11 PM) *
0z 3k NAM has a nice broken line of storms crossing C IL through OH Wednesday evening/night.




Parameters are there for supercells... it's just the number of cells that pop that is the question.

Sounding about half way up the IL/IN border


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 7 2018, 11:15 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/15/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StormChaserCK19
post May 8 2018, 10:12 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 7 2018, 10:14 PM) *



Parameters are there for supercells... it's just the number of cells that pop that is the question.

Sounding about half way up the IL/IN border


It's interesting that the SPC has the outlook centered over IL but many of the hi res models such as the 3km NAM, WRF-ARW, NMMB, and WRF NSSL have much of the convection well east in IL into much of IN which is a result of quicker timing.
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snowlover2
post May 8 2018, 10:53 AM
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QUOTE(StormChaserCK19 @ May 8 2018, 11:12 AM) *
It's interesting that the SPC has the outlook centered over IL but many of the hi res models such as the 3km NAM, WRF-ARW, NMMB, and WRF NSSL have much of the convection well east in IL into much of IN which is a result of quicker timing.

Thought the same thing. 12z NAM/3k NAM are still more east. We'll see if SPC shifts the risk area east on the updated day 2 in the next 90 minutes.


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