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> May 9-15 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Medium-range: 4-8 day forecasts and observations
WeatherMonger
post May 10 2018, 03:22 PM
Post #41




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Local met on FB

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QUOTE
NOT A TWISTER! At first glance this looks like a tornado, but it’s not. It’s a “hail shaft”, which is a concentration of intense hail caught in the downdraft of a thunderstorm. Joe Powers snapped this photo of it south of Lincoln late Wednesday afternoon.

Chris Miller, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the US National Weather Service Central Illinois office in Lincoln says, “This is a great example of a hail shaft. We were getting some hail with the thunderstorms, and when it concentrates into a downward moving plume it has a white appearance. Some people think these look like funnels or even tornadoes. In fact, I was out in Lincoln at the time and saw the exact same thing!”
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kpk33x
post May 10 2018, 05:48 PM
Post #42




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Between 7 and 7:30 last night we had a thunderstorm with some gusty winds (45 MPH measured by someone in town) and pea sized hail. We picked up a decent amount of rain too, which we needed, and it was good to have the pollen knocked out of the air.

Nothing on tap thunderstorm wise until over the weekend, will have to see how the front decides to meander over the area.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 10 2018, 08:07 PM
Post #43




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Some nice ridge topping storms today. 3 areas of severe weather... mid-Atlantic, OV, and Plains.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 10 2018, 08:19 PM
Post #44




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What a nice pattern



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 10 2018, 08:34 PM
Post #45




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NAM is showing a MCS in the upper OV moving into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. I wouldn't lock in an exact path until 6 hours out. Hopefully we can get a better path but who knows. I'm also not gonna start a thread for the mid-Atlantic people... I'll let them open it the day of again laugh.gif





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 10 2018, 09:43 PM
Post #46




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Hour 72 NAM for Dayton (estimated) right before convective initiation. That might be conducive for some supercells.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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FireworkWX03
post May 10 2018, 10:08 PM
Post #47




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 10 2018, 09:34 PM) *
NAM is showing a MCS in the upper OV moving into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. I wouldn't lock in an exact path until 6 hours out. Hopefully we can get a better path but who knows. I'm also not gonna start a thread for the mid-Atlantic people... I'll let them open it the day of again laugh.gif

Looks like a great path to me. tongue.gif

The 3km and HREF ensembles picked up on it at 00Z too. Might be a tad early for the upper OV though. But as you say, plenty of runs to change timing and location (or evaporate entirely). That mostly-stationary boundary looks to be hanging around for another week, wherever it sets up.
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melissa from ill...
post May 10 2018, 11:31 PM
Post #48




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LOL, Dr Forbes posted a "D" pic on facebook!


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--------------------
"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 10 2018, 11:58 PM
Post #49




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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ May 10 2018, 11:08 PM) *
Looks like a great path to me. tongue.gif

The 3km and HREF ensembles picked up on it at 00Z too. Might be a tad early for the upper OV though. But as you say, plenty of runs to change timing and location (or evaporate entirely). That mostly-stationary boundary looks to be hanging around for another week, wherever it sets up.

Stationary front? Dunno what you're talking about, clearly no fronts here.



Y'all can have Saturday if the potential I'm seeing for Sunday plays out. Stationary front inching south encountering 3000+ CAPE. Previous day/overnight storms (MCS?) to our northeast could set down a boundary to kick storms off on Sunday. With it being to our northeast, don't really have to worry about debris clouds. GFS has weak shear though while NAM has more. Not sure how to feel about that.

Even the GFS has a classic NW flow event setup though.


QUOTE(melissa from illinois @ May 11 2018, 12:31 AM) *
LOL, Dr Forbes posted a "D" pic on facebook!


Attached Image

laugh.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 11 2018, 12:05 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2018, 12:40 AM
Post #50




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For Saturday



QUOTE
..SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC

ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW, MODELS
INDICATE THAT ONE OR TWO LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL MIGRATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST REGION. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, PERHAPS INITIALLY
AIDED BY THE LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE MIXED-LAYER CAPE (1000+ J/KG), AND
ENHANCED BY LINGERING 30-50+ KT WESTERLY (LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL)
850-500 MB FLOW, STORMS INITIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL MAY EVOLVE INTO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST REGION BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK IS POSSIBLE
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION, UPSTREAM, ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA,
BY SATURDAY EVENING.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 11 2018, 12:52 AM
Post #51




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 11 2018, 01:40 AM) *
For Saturday


Nice. smile.gif


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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FireworkWX03
post May 11 2018, 04:21 AM
Post #52




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I gotta stop watching the NAM where that boundary now barely gets to CAK and the temps are being printed out 15 degrees below CLE's point forecast all over NE Ohio through Monday. If it ends up being another I-70 and south severe weather year, fine, but give me some warmth, weather gods! Go back to timing issues, it can be real warm with those. I'll stop model hugging, I swear.

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tricky forecast again today as the location of a pesky front
will determine precip chances and temps the next couple of days.
The models all have slightly differing solutions on how to
handle the front which is problematic.

...

We could end up with a 20 degree temperature gradient
from north to south today and perhaps even more if the front is
quicker moving north. The previous forecast seems reasonable and
have not adjusted temps too much for today.

43 and cold, overrunning rain at Ashtabula Saturday afternoon? Ahh, late spring and just 23 degrees below normal. Beautiful lakeshore, but there's a reason the bars don't open for two more weeks. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by FireworkWX03: May 11 2018, 04:29 AM
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snowlover2
post May 11 2018, 12:54 PM
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Enhanced area introduced on updated day 2 for parts of Eastern OH.

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds and some hail will be
possible through Saturday night near and south of the Great Lakes
through the upper Ohio Valley and portions of the northern Mid
Atlantic Coast region.

...Synopsis...
Models remain consistent with the evolution of the mid/upper level
flow pattern across the contiguous U.S. for the Day 2 forecast
period. A large upper low will encompass much of the Intermountain
West and adjacent portions of the Rockies and Pacific Coast states.
At the same time, seasonably strong northwesterly mid/upper flow is
expected to persist across much of Canada into the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic States. A series of midlevel perturbations translating
through the base of the western upper low will track from the upper
Mississippi Valley through the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
to the Mid Atlantic region Saturday and Saturday night. At the
surface, a front is expected to advance south through the Ohio
Valley into western/central PA, while the eastern extent of this
boundary shifts north from MD into southeast PA, and extend into NJ.
Farther west, this front is expected to remain nearly stationary
from central IL to far northern MO, and southwest through KS,
intersecting a dryline in the eastern OK Panhandle and adjacent
southern KS.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States...
Severe probabilities and categorical risk have been upgraded across
the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic region. Boundary layer
moistening is expected in advance of the southward advancing surface
boundary, while strong diabatic heating and the eastern extent of a
steep midlevel lapse rate plume contribute to moderate instability
across the warm sector Saturday afternoon. Mainly elevated storms
are expected to be ongoing north of the surface front at the start
of Day 2, with activity becoming surface based as the boundary
advances south into the destabilizing environment. Moderately
strong deep-layer west-northwesterlies suggest line segments/bowing
structures will be the primary storm mode, though effective bulk
shear of 35-45 kt indicates embedded supercells will also be
possible. There is increasing concern and confidence for several
swaths of damaging winds across the upper Ohio Valley to the
northern Mid Atlantic region, as suggested by several CAMs. A
midlevel perturbation is expected to move through these areas during
peak heating increasing the likelihood for thunderstorm development.
A tornado threat will be possible across northern MD into southeast
PA and adjacent NJ and DE, as low-level shear increases to the east
and northeast of a surface low tracking into MD and along the warm
front.

...IA to the southern Great Lakes region...
Elevated strong to severe storms may be ongoing across IA into
northern IL and IN Saturday morning. This activity should become
surface based and track to the east-southeast with a severe
hail/wind risk possible in response to forcing associated with
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection through Saturday afternoon and
evening. Elevated storms may persist well after dark across parts
of this region north of the front, within zone of strong warm
advection, with hail being the main threat Saturday night.

...Dryline across the southern Plains...
Guidance continues to suggest the potential for isolated storms near
the dryline across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle into southern KS and
south through west TX Saturday afternoon and evening. Coinciding
with at least modest southerly low-level jet strengthening, the
environment may become conducive to primarily a severe hail/wind
threat before the boundary layer cools/stabilizes.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 15% - Slight

..Peters.. 05/11/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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PlanetMaster
post May 11 2018, 03:06 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 11 2018, 12:58 AM) *
Stationary front? Dunno what you're talking about, clearly no fronts here.

laugh.gif Even with my glasses on I cant see any clear demarcation of a front stationary or not rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Join in the conversation at https://www.wxdisco.com/
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2018, 03:06 PM
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Ahh, the mid-Atlantic crew already has a thread open. Nice.

The RPM is all hope we have for Saturday. Hope it's on to something.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2018, 03:10 PM
Post #56




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Does this remind anyone of any certain event? Asking for a friend




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post May 11 2018, 03:39 PM
Post #57




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From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Sounds like ILN favors the I-70 corridor tomorrow.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue to lift northwards this evening and
stall out north of Dayton to Columbus. This frontal boundary
will continue to meander across the area for several days
allowing for off and on showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A cu field has developed along and just south of the warm
frontal boundary. Although dry conditions have been present thus
far, cannot rule out a few showers or storms developing late
this afternoon and into the evening hours. The warm front will
lift northwards and stall out across far northern portions of
the forecast area. Precipitation chances will be limited
overnight and confined to extreme northern portions of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level disturbance will move into primarily locations
north of the Ohio River on Saturday. This feature along with the
surface frontal boundary will allow for shower and thunderstorm
development during the day. The best chance for precipitation
will be across the northern half of the forecast area generally
along and north of Interstate 70. Due to the location of the
frontal boundary instability will be limited across the far
northern counties and therefore have less thunder chances in
there. There will be a corridor of better support and
instability where there will be the potential for severe
weather. Expect the best chance for severe weather will be in
the Dayton to Columbus corridor. Damaging winds and large hail
will be a threat. In addition with the slow moving west to east
oriented frontal boundary cannot rule out a potential flash
flood threat as well.
Going into Saturday night expect most of
the precipitation activity to be limited to northeastern
portions of the region.

For temperatures Saturday and Saturday night there will be a
continued sharp gradient in temperatures with the frontal
boundary. Went close to guidance for temperatures during this
time.

In addition, winds will pick up for the daytime hours on
Saturday with wind gusts around 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal boundary will push slowly south across the area Sunday
into Monday as progressive westerly flow persists aloft. The
boundary will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms as a
series of weak mid level disturbances push east across the region
through the early part of the upcoming week. Timing will be somewhat
difficult with these features so at this point, will allow for
mainly chance pops with a bit of a diurnal enhancement. Highs on
Sunday will range from the mid to upper 70s in the north to the mid
to possibly upper 80s elsewhere across the area.

The boundary looks like it may work back north through mid week
before possibly pushing south later in the week. With additional
energy working east across the region, the threat for showers and
thunderstorms will continue through much of the week, with the 12Z
GEFS keeping at least chance probabilities for pcpn through at least
Thursday. As a result, will allow for at least some lower end pops on
through the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will
remain well above normal through mid week with daytime highs in the
80s and overnight lows in the 60s. If the boundary does end up
moving south late in the week, highs by Thursday and Friday will
likely be back down into the 70s.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2018, 06:00 PM
Post #58




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Latest experimental HRRR lost the MCS.



At night, though, it has a bunch of cells. Discrete activity in Ohio and MCS to the east.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 11 2018, 06:07 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2018, 07:57 PM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Very interesting. What surprised me is how SPC has a marginal risk in the area anyway. They said there might be dryline storms. Epitome of right for the wrong reasons?

https://www.facebook.com/NWSCharlestonWV/vi...64253960303046/


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post May 11 2018, 08:42 PM
Post #60




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Posts: 12,590
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From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Looks like any cluster of organized storms can turn into a MCS Sat/Sun. I'm sure I won't be here by the time it hits, may be on the road to Florida by then. Figures...
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