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> May 12-23 MidAtl/NE Stationary Fronts - Rain | Severe | Flooding Potential, Extended Period Forecasts and Observations
ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2018, 11:49 PM
Post #21




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03z HRRR is far enough out that you can see a few hours into the event. No sign that it'll be an MCS event here, but you can see that the MCV from tonights storms is responsible for firing this event. The MCV in the second image is in NW PA.




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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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Removed_Member_PlanetMaster_*
post May 11 2018, 11:53 PM
Post #22







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Composite showing quite a bit of virga, weird saying that in May. Dews and Humility in the 30's here but winds now NE so air should moisten up pretty quickly overnight with showers popping in the next hour or so.

Attached Image

Whats actually reaching surface, numerous storms developing already, looks to be a wild day ahead

Attached Image

Radar with dewpoints overlay, fire it up!



This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 11 2018, 11:57 PM
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Removed_Member_PlanetMaster_*
post May 12 2018, 12:03 AM
Post #23







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Broad view, choo choo!

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Gnutella
post May 12 2018, 01:09 AM
Post #24




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I found a sounding on the NAM from just north of Chambersburg, PA at 21Z that has PDS TOR listed as a possible hazard. blink.gif

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Removed_Member_PlanetMaster_*
post May 12 2018, 02:52 AM
Post #25







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Its a rockin' outside, nice flare up over EPA heading into Jersey, NYC and LI. You can see the feed of moisture coming in from MD and Va, interesting little line developing West of Philly.



Doppler detected storms overlay

Attached Image

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: May 12 2018, 02:58 AM
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Removed_Member_PlanetMaster_*
post May 12 2018, 03:07 AM
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NWS finally waking up? I think they must have read this thread cause they pretty much repeat everything we have been saying since yesterday. Even so under playing this event which I think is very foolish. If that sun pops out during the lull later this morning and afternoon, which is likely there will be dangerous severe weather, this just seems like total incompetence to me.

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
347 AM EDT Sat May 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary front, with waves of low pressure riding
along it, will remain to our south into tonight. The front may
move further south Sunday into Monday as weak high pressure
builds to our north and east
. Another cold front approaches from
the west Tuesday and will push through the region late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday. This front stalls south of the region
for the remainder of the week.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The first of several ripples in a nearly zonal middle and upper
level flow is fast approaching early this morning. A quasi-
stationary front will remain to our south through tonight.

Showers are beginning to move into western portions of the area.
Radar trends indicate some embedded moderate to locally heavy
rain to our west across central and eastern PA. There should be
some downward trend in rainfall intensity as this first area of
rain moves across with dew points beginning in the 30s and 40s.
Another vort max/disturbance in the flow is located across the
Eastern Great Lakes, and this is progged to approach and move
through this morning as well.


Elevated instability is indicated to increase by the mesoscale
models this morning, so will continue to mention slight chance
of thunder for mainly western and southern portions of the
region
. There is no surface based instability as the low levels
are cooling and will remain stable through the day under NE
flow.

There may be a brief lull in shower activity early this
afternoon. However, a more potent vort max/disturbance will
approach late this afternoon and evening. This should bring
another round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

Confidence has increased that the warm front will remain to our
south today and SPC has shifted the severe storm risk areas
further south across PA and central/southern NJ with the latest
Day 1 convective outlook. A line of showers and thunderstorms is
likely to develop to the north and west this afternoon and then
quickly move across the area this evening. High resolution
models are in general agreement with this idea, and a consensus
takes the line offshore between 00 and 03z. While the severe
threat is to our south and west, there should still be
convective elements in the line from 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE.


As for heavy rainfall potential, there still could be pockets
of moderate to heavy rainfall at times this morning and then
again late afternoon and evening. The threat for flash flooding
will likely align with the greatest severe threat to our south
and west.
The relatively fast progression of each vort
max/disturbance will limit the flood potential to only minor
urban and poor drainage flooding.


May move south? What happened to giving a true forecast instead of ifs and maybes on the day of the event when property and more important lives could be at stake? This AFD is an absolute joke IMO. Its like I have been saying since late last year they are nothing more than model huggers and haven't a clue how to read the atmosphere or understand the science and give an absolute forecast, pathetic. I can give a more precise forecast just observing the water vapor and satellite loops.

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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 03:12 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 12 2018, 03:52 AM) *
Its a rockin' outside, nice flare up over EPA heading into Jersey, NYC and LI. You can see the feed of moisture coming in from MD and Va, interesting little line developing West of Philly.



Doppler detected storms overlay

Attached Image


Have quite the lightning show going on down here looking north at the cell in northern MD might get a little gust front to push in.


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post May 12 2018, 03:24 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 12 2018, 04:12 AM) *
Have quite the lightning show going on down here looking north at the cell in northern MD might get a little gust front to push in.


We are getting frequent lightning and thunder and torrential rain but according to NWS slight chance
of thunder for mainly western and southern portions of the
region
Are they for real? wow no respect for whomever wrote this update.
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 03:34 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 12 2018, 04:24 AM) *
We are getting frequent lightning and thunder and torrential rain but according to NWS slight chance
of thunder for mainly western and southern portions of the
region
Are they for real? wow no respect for whomever wrote this update.


Yea didnt expect them to hold together as well as they have tonight as for tomorrow though that boundary will be pretty stout across the area so areas just north of the front will surely just get elevated convection to take place and probably not much in the way of severe. Deep thunder though the kind that makes your house shake seems quite possible in that stable region also gotta watch that marine layer hurts storms in the summer but even more so this time of year, best area does seem to be across PA (central and southern) and diving then central and southern NJ region.

Now as you stated the caveat could be where that front sets up and if there is any sun that comes out in your region, I can see why they took the more reduced factor approach but should at least be mentioned of possibility if they do happen to get stronger what to expect. Probably have a better outlook tomorrow morning from them, might be a newbie on the shift tonight.


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 03:42 AM
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Tomorrow should feature quite the wind probability, some hail in the stronger storms but not too much cold air aloft. Now where that front sits will determine where exactly the tornado threat looks to happen it shouldnt be too crazy tomorrow but discrete cells and southern portions of cells/kink regions will need to be watched as normal.

Im not sure we see much microburst potential probably more just straight line wind damage threat.


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 04:12 AM
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Flooding issues may start to arise soon up near Erie been almost constant .50-1" rates up there for the past couple hours, estimates around 3" so far starting to pop up there.


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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 05:57 AM
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I'll have to check more soundings - I doubt the CTP
reference is to the dreaded "Loaded Gun Sounding", common to the mid-west's most severe events.

QUOTE
It is a loaded gun. All three dangers are present today from
these storms: damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes
. SPC
mentions a possible evolution from large hail threat (and
tornadoes) in the high shear and nearer to the warm front at
first, then a turn to more of a linear/bow-echo mode as the
storms sink southward into the high CAPE and slightly lower bulk
shear. The set-up this evening also looks similar to the
conditions favorable for tornadoes to be embedded in quasi-
linear storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Storms should be pushing to the south of the area by 9 or 10 pm.
While the rainfall may be heavy for brief times as these storms
move through, they will be moving so quickly that the threat for
(flash) flooding is low. However, the threat for flooding is
being considered,
as the almost daily showers and thunderstorms
will continue into the next week since the flow aloft is
expected to remain westerly. The soils will get very wet and
the threat for flooding will likely increase through the next
few days.
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KENNYP2339
post May 12 2018, 06:07 AM
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Just the perfect amount of rain this morning for some easy garden edging, weeding and mulch spreading. Hopefully my friends to the south and west of me get some good thunderstorms, but are spared any damage, please keep an eye to the ski, especially those is the Susquehanna valley, northern MD and Southern NJ. There is a chance for a bowing segment so plan now, make sure lawn furniture is secured, outdoor hanging plants wont fall, sensitive garden items are protected. Since its the weekend and many people are off, if venturing outside for some classic hillbilly storm chasing / filming be aware of your surrounding, don't park near tree's, watching for lightning and have a plan with 2 exits.
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yamvmax
post May 12 2018, 06:23 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 12 2018, 03:24 AM) *
We are getting frequent lightning and thunder and torrential rain but according to NWS slight chance
of thunder for mainly western and southern portions of the
region
Are they for real? wow no respect for whomever wrote this update.

Interesting, up here on North shore, we had none of that.
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Bjerknes
post May 12 2018, 09:50 AM
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Composite Indices like sort of meh right now. Should change as things heat up. It's all sun down this way.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis....php?sector=16#

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Ryan Duff
post May 12 2018, 11:41 AM
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Latest SPC outlook has the enhanced area focused more along the Mason Dixon line.

Attached Image


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 11:43 AM
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Energy is currently entering Ohio area now.

Attached Image


Should get things rocking once it enters eastern ohio and western PA where shear and instability are collocated best. atmosphere is overturning here should squeak mid 70's and allow some cape to build in the area. Best area still looks central/southern PA and NJ and MD.

Ill be down at bwi in a few hours again so that should be fun.


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clindner00
post May 12 2018, 12:26 PM
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Temps in the past 3 hours on Blue Knob have sky rocketed from 59-75 degrees. Im sure its about 80-85 in Altoona now since they are normally 5-10 degrees warmer. Ill try to get some photos from the top of the mountain this evening as theyre approaching.
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geeter1
post May 12 2018, 01:03 PM
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Have .40" in the rain gauge since late last night

Holding steady at 56F . Really damp....
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clindner00
post May 12 2018, 01:13 PM
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First severe storm watches about to go up in western PA, eastern OH and northern WVA
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