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> May 12-20 MidAtl/NE Stationary Fronts - Rain | Severe | Flooding Potential, Extended Period Forecasts and Observations
so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 02:08 PM
Post #41




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We really need to watch areas of MD and southern PA especially if discrete cells is the name of the game early on, tornado threat in that region. meso models throwing a line down which seems the most reasonable.

Quite the contrast when I left home in Lanc it was 61/62 got over to york and it was 73 and then made it to BWI and is sitting at 86/87


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phillyfan
post May 12 2018, 02:54 PM
Post #42




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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 12 2018, 03:08 PM) *
We really need to watch areas of MD and southern PA especially if discrete cells is the name of the game early on, tornado threat in that region. meso models throwing a line down which seems the most reasonable.

Quite the contrast when I left home in Lanc it was 61/62 got over to york and it was 73 and then made it to BWI and is sitting at 86/87

Sun just came out here for the first time today, starting to warm up a little bit finally. Got around half an inch overnight last night.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: May 12 2018, 02:54 PM


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5 (-6.5 from avg.)
2015-2016: 41 (+9 from avg.)
2014-2015: 48 (+16 from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 03:11 PM
Post #43




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They are up in most of the region west of the Cap of PA (KMDT approx.)

Attached Image

QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

Areas affected...Southeast PA/northeast MD/northern DE/southern NJ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 121959Z - 122230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to move to the
east-southeast into southeast Pennsylvania by 5-6 PM EDT and
northern Maryland between 6-8 PM EDT. Damaging winds and hail
should be the primary severe risks, though a tornado threat cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Earlier low-level stratus clouds have dissipated across
southeast PA, far northeast MD and southern NJ allowing for stronger
surface heating. This warming of the environment is supporting
steepening lapse rates, while moisture advection per south-
southwesterly low-level winds into the discussion area will result
in further destabilization through the late afternoon from south to
north. MUCAPE across MD and DE ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg. These
improving thermodynamics for thunderstorm development combined with
strong effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt already present across this
region with the approach of a midlevel perturbation/MCV will likely
allow storms to remain strong-severe as they advance from eastern
parts of WW 84 into the discussion area.

..Peters/Grams.. 05/12/2018


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 12 2018, 03:14 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 03:15 PM
Post #44




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 12 2018, 03:54 PM) *
Sun just came out here for the first time today, starting to warm up a little bit finally. Got around half an inch overnight last night.


Wow yea not sure what LNS had probably around a quarter inch but down here at bwi was a quite night just saw some lightning off to the north and could see where the outflow boundary setup across the area. Just north of the airport went from mid and high level clouds to a low stratus deck quick pretty cool to see that happen. What has me a little concerned for the area is the stong veering taking place with winds at the surface decent to 500mb. There is still a cap here and there but should break relatively soon as we continue to mix out the temps aloft.

Still not sure I see much in the hail aspect today even though SPC throws in some nods to large hail, definitely more of a wind threat and iso tornado. Should probably see something near by you looks like allentown will be about of the extent north of possible strong storm potential.

York/Lanc/Chester look to be the hotbeds and northern MD. Should be a fun afternoon at least it will keep me awake.


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Millersville University


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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 03:16 PM
Post #45




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Warning just went up for- to my west



QUOTE
Message:
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-PA125AA442D9F0.SevereThunderstormWarning.125AA4430
2CPA.CTPSVRCTP.580d786b1e3121d2a0f7cafd1c48f5f7 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent:
16:12 EDT on 05-12-2018
Effective:
16:12 EDT on 05-12-2018
Expires:
17:15 EDT on 05-12-2018
Event:
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Bedford County in south central Pennsylvania...
Southern Huntingdon County in central Pennsylvania...
Central Franklin County in south central Pennsylvania...
Northeastern Fulton County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 515 PM EDT

* At 411 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New
Enterprise, moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage
to trees and power lines.


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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 03:18 PM
Post #46




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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 03:20 PM
Post #47




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ohmy.gif

Upped Tor risk a bit in SEPA


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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 03:23 PM
Post #48




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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 12 2018, 03:25 PM


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WEATHERFAN100
post May 12 2018, 03:26 PM
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Abundant sunshine the past few hours has popped the temp up from 58F around 11 am to 73/62 atm. Several severe warned storms across west central PA are starting to blossom as they will head east into more of a prime environment.


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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 03:29 PM
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Based on current soundings, have to think the Mason Dixon line and down to DC region is in the "worse" potential impact zone. CAPE is 700-1000 on the inbound and the atmosphere seems to allow for more buoyancy than do areas N of say I-76 through PA>



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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 12 2018, 04:20 PM) *
ohmy.gif

Upped Tor risk a bit in SEPA


Attached Image

Yea that frontal placement from the cold pool that storms leftover is making this interesting in that area. If the winds were lighter might not have been an issue as much but winds are still 8-12knots at the surface and only increase better aloft.

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 12 2018, 04:29 PM) *
Based on current soundings, have to think the Mason Dixon line and down to DC region is in the "worse" potential impact zone. CAPE is 700-1000 on the inbound and the atmosphere seems to allow for more buoyancy than do areas N of say I-76 through PA>


I say right down the MD/PA line seems to be high impact from much of today. DC may get into some storms but could see how they just barely miss out. Have some supercells really starting to get their act together.


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KENNYP2339
post May 12 2018, 03:46 PM
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Anyone tracking these storms along the mason dixion line that has the software to show the t-cell heights?
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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 03:47 PM
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 12 2018, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ May 12 2018, 04:46 PM) *
Anyone tracking these storms along the mason dixion line that has the software to show the t-cell heights?

You can check it with nexrad not the best detail but gives a decent idea of what is happening.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index...ype=CCX-EET-0-6

Currently seeing one cell in particular that is pushing 45K

Curious to see what happens to the storms once they hit that front.


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Millersville University


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phillyfan
post May 12 2018, 04:00 PM
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Tornado Watch in effect now:
QUOTE
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 85
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2018

TORNADO WATCH 85 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC011-017-029-043-045-071-075-091-101-133-130500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0085.180512T2055Z-180513T0500Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS BUCKS CHESTER
DAUPHIN DELAWARE LANCASTER
LEBANON MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA
YORK



--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5 (-6.5 from avg.)
2015-2016: 41 (+9 from avg.)
2014-2015: 48 (+16 from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 12 2018, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ May 12 2018, 04:46 PM) *
Anyone tracking these storms along the mason dixion line that has the software to show the t-cell heights?

If you're referring to echo tops, I used to use Wunderground for tracking storms. It has velocities and echo tops.


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 1 (Last: 5/14/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/20/18)
Slight risks: 2 (Last: 5/12/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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gloryboy1417
post May 12 2018, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 85
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2018

TORNADO WATCH 85 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC011-017-029-043-045-071-075-091-101-133-130500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0085.180512T2055Z-180513T0500Z/

PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKS BUCKS CHESTER
DAUPHIN DELAWARE LANCASTER
LEBANON MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA
YORK


Source


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gloryboy1417
post May 12 2018, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 12 2018, 05:00 PM) *
Tornado Watch in effect now:

Ya beat me lol


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stxprowl
post May 12 2018, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ May 12 2018, 05:00 PM) *
Tornado Watch in effect now:

ohmy.gif https://www.weather.gov/phi/
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Undertakerson
post May 12 2018, 04:03 PM
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TOR Watch just went up


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