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> Feb 8-10 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Medium Range (4-8 days out)
Small Craft Advi...
post Jan 30 2014, 04:52 PM
Post #101




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 234
Joined: 5-February 10
From: Ortley Beach, NJ
Member No.: 21,435





LUCC good point with Sandy. I'm very interested in this one as I have some things going on over this time frame --- we'll see what happens!


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall Totals:
11/19/13: Trace
12/8/13: 7"
12/10/13: 2"
1/3/14: 9"
1/23/14: 12"
1/25/14: 1"
1/29/14: 5"
2/3/14: 3" + slush + sleet accumulation
2/5/14: trace of ice/snow then plain rain!
2/9/14: 2"
2/13/14: 5"... ~3" front end, rain, then ~2" back end
2/15/14: 2"
2/18/14: 1"
2/26/14: .5"
3/3/14: 6"



In Palisades Park, NJ:
2012-2013 Snowfall Totals:
46"
2011-2012 Snowfall totals:
11" all season :(
2010-2011 Snowfall totals:
76.5"
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d-_-b
post Jan 30 2014, 04:59 PM
Post #102




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 1,301
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From: Boston, MA
Member No.: 23,496





QUOTE(Beers1 @ Jan 30 2014, 04:44 PM) *
Can someone remember a storm that was shown this far out and in pretty good agreement by all models/ensembles and actually happened?Just find it hard to believe it won't change several times, this year seems like models have a hard time showing what's going to happen a day before the storm let alone 11days.Personally I can't get to excited yet, been down this road too many times only to be let down.


Pretty sure every model picked up on the Feb 13 blizz, even if the GFS didn't know what to do with it for most of the time, a storm was still there.

Funny enough (and a reminder to everyone why we should not live and die by a model run), here's the 0z GFS frame for the blizz @ 162h laugh.gif



--------------------
2014-15: 00.0"
Departure from average to date: 00.0"
Departure from seasonal average (44"): 00.0"
(updated: 10/01/14)

Past winters:
2013-14: 58.9" (+14.9" from average)
2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average)
2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average)
2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average)
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jb1979
post Jan 30 2014, 05:07 PM
Post #103




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 1,582
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From: Oreland, PA (NW Philly Burbs)
Member No.: 26,392





QUOTE(d-_-b @ Jan 30 2014, 04:59 PM) *
Pretty sure every model picked up on the Feb 13 blizz, even if the GFS didn't know what to do with it for most of the time, a storm was still there.

Funny enough (and a reminder to everyone why we should not live and die by a model run), here's the 0z GFS frame for the blizz @ 162h laugh.gif




Actually with Nemo, the Euro started bringing the storm up the coast only like 4 days out and no one believed it. Even though models had the storm, none were consistent and the big storm idea was a very late addition.


--------------------
_____________________________________________
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches. 2nd highest total on record
December 8 - 3.2 inches
December 10 - 3.2 inches
December 14 - 2.7 inches
December 16 - 1.2 inches
January 2-3 - 8.0 inches
January 21 - 10 inches
January 25 - 2.0 inches
January 29 - 1.0 inches
February 3 - 9 inches
February 9 - 3 inches
February 13-14 - 15 inches
February 15 - 1.0 inch
February 18 - 3.0 inches
March 3 - 2.0 inches
March 17 - 2.0 inches
_____________________________________________

Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
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baltimorewisher8...
post Jan 30 2014, 05:38 PM
Post #104




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 9,863
Joined: 17-December 09
From: Hoboken, NJ
Member No.: 20,276





GFS @ 228/240/252 -- still has a storm.. all that matters...


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--------------------
BG - All comments are just my opinion and all are FWIW

My View: Talk possibilities, not absolutes
--
Hoboken, NJ


First Flakes: 11/12/13 - No Accumulation
First 'Accumulating' Snow: 12/8/13 - 0.75"
First One Inch Snowfall: 12/10/13 - 1.25"
December 14th/15th Storm: 5.5'
December 17th Clipper(s): 1.5"
Christmas Eve Snow Squall: 0.50"
New Years Eve Snow Squall: Trace
January 2/3 Storm: 6.5"
January 21st Storm 10.5"
January 25 Clipper: 1"
January 29 Coastal: Coating
February 3rd Over-runner: 6.0"
February 4/5th Ice/Snow Storm: 4.0" Snow before 0.4" Ice (Thunder-Snow)
February 9th Clipper: 1.0"
February 13th Classic: 11" front end/2" backside = 13" (Thunder-Sleet)
February 15th Coastal: 2.5"
February 18th Overrunning: 2.0"

Seasonal Snowfall: 56"
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DiehardFF
post Jan 30 2014, 05:44 PM
Post #105




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Wish I could see btwn 228 and 240 lol. Nice Signal.


--------------------
PA FF/EMT
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Eddie227
post Jan 30 2014, 06:26 PM
Post #106




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Lmao at this thread having almost 25,000 views already and the thread just opened yesterday afternoon. Let alone being 10 days away!
Is it supposed to be extremely cold again that they have snow that far south and in that quantity?
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AmyRenee
post Jan 30 2014, 06:46 PM
Post #107




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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jan 30 2014, 04:42 PM) *
Goes in for closer look...

*scratches head*

8" for Atlanta per Euro through 240??? blink.gif

[attachment=222773:ecmwf_tsnow_nc_41.png]


13 inches here in Rockingham County, NC (North of Greensboro, near the Va. line) I'll take that! But school was out 3 1/2 days for this 2inch snow we had Tuesday. I guess we would be out for weeks. smile.gif I teach Kindergarten. We will be doing Sat. school or going through July. But, I still want it. smile.gif
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psu1313
post Jan 30 2014, 06:44 PM
Post #108




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From: Arlington, VA
Member No.: 21,194





So Kornheiser on Pardon the Introduction just mentioned this storm and said it will be a storm "measured in feet for next weekend." Where are these people getting this information from? I saw a loony blog article today about the storm on Tuesday/Wed. but haven't seen anything on this storm anywhere other than here and a few other places.
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Storms R us
post Jan 30 2014, 06:47 PM
Post #109




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Member No.: 28,281





This morning it was plenty cold
Magnolia, DE -6F 4:15 am
Goldbourgh, MD -3F 4:30 am
Kent Island, MD 13F 5:55 am
BWI, MD 10F 6:00 am

These were readings taken from my car which I couldn't believe as I had never had readings in the negative before. Still a lot of snow pack Magnolia, DE currently 16F. BTW the bay is frozen over from the Bay Bridge Annapolis,MD as far as you can see towards Baltimore now that's some cold weather.
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stilko4
post Jan 30 2014, 06:51 PM
Post #110




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QUOTE(d-_-b @ Jan 30 2014, 02:02 PM) *
This thread is about to get really busy

24 hrs snowfall (and once again, for entertainment only) with still a lot left for the NE



Total snow for the entire EURO 12z run is just amazing laugh.gif



i could be content with this, as can every snow lover in the northeast, from the coast to great lakes and in between

also just noticed this shows snow in mexico

This post has been edited by stilko4: Jan 30 2014, 06:52 PM


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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stilko4
post Jan 30 2014, 06:54 PM
Post #111




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Member No.: 12,166





fwiw upton mentioned this http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

A MORE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF THE
DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY...AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LIKELY AFFECTING THE
TRI-STATE AREA WITH WHAT COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY
WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
IN BOTH TRACK AND TIMING. VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.



--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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Eddie227
post Jan 30 2014, 06:53 PM
Post #112




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From: Central Pa
Member No.: 27,235





People who don't really follow weather already are hearing about it. 3 people on Facebook already posted about a huge blizzard next weekend. Who really thinks this could be 100% accurate 10 days away?
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 30 2014, 06:56 PM
Post #113




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From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





QUOTE(Eddie227 @ Jan 30 2014, 06:53 PM) *
People who don't really follow weather already are hearing about it. 3 people on Facebook already posted about a huge blizzard next weekend. Who really thinks this could be 100% accurate 10 days away?


considering there are two storms coming in between now and this one, I really wouldn't trust this setup 10 days out, certainly huge potential is there but there will be many many changes.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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WinterWolf
post Jan 30 2014, 07:12 PM
Post #114




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From: Interior CT.
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 30 2014, 06:56 PM) *
considering there are two storms coming in between now and this one, I really wouldn't trust this setup 10 days out, certainly huge potential is there but there will be many many changes.


Go watch Steve D's latest video(not just you, I meant anybody interested lol). He talks about all of this...says we all will remember February when it's done!! Take that for whatever it's worth? But he does sound very Intrigued...to say the least. Good Video though.

This post has been edited by WinterWolf: Jan 30 2014, 07:13 PM
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WinterWolf
post Jan 30 2014, 07:20 PM
Post #115




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As a Pro MET once told me, The REAL BIG ones sometimes shine just a little brighter out there in the distance.

NOT saying this is ONE OF THOSE, but that statement may, or may not have some Merit to it with this potential???
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baltimorewisher8...
post Jan 30 2014, 07:19 PM
Post #116




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From: Hoboken, NJ
Member No.: 20,276





QUOTE(WinterWolf @ Jan 30 2014, 07:12 PM) *
Go watch Steve D's latest video(not just you, I meant anybody interested lol). He talks about all of this...says we all will remember February when it's done!! Take that for whatever it's worth? But he does sound very Intrigued...to say the least. Good Video though.


the video was good and I think this storm certainly has potential, i mean how could you say it doesnt. however, we must also keep things in perspective in two completely separate regards.

one has to do with weather - in that there are 2 or 3 systems that come in before this, which will for better or worse set the stage for this storm

the second has to do with the psychology element of the forum - things must be ept in perspective.. if everyone on here is expecting 20 inches in there backyard, you are setting the stage to be dissapointed, even if a storm delvers widespread 10 and spots of 20..there should be a storm, how widespread and how strong is another question.

enjoy the eye candy for just that, eye candy and to quickly decipher trends if you dont have any time to really disect.. but be reasonable with your expectations, and in return, I think this storm will be reasonable to you..



--------------------
BG - All comments are just my opinion and all are FWIW

My View: Talk possibilities, not absolutes
--
Hoboken, NJ


First Flakes: 11/12/13 - No Accumulation
First 'Accumulating' Snow: 12/8/13 - 0.75"
First One Inch Snowfall: 12/10/13 - 1.25"
December 14th/15th Storm: 5.5'
December 17th Clipper(s): 1.5"
Christmas Eve Snow Squall: 0.50"
New Years Eve Snow Squall: Trace
January 2/3 Storm: 6.5"
January 21st Storm 10.5"
January 25 Clipper: 1"
January 29 Coastal: Coating
February 3rd Over-runner: 6.0"
February 4/5th Ice/Snow Storm: 4.0" Snow before 0.4" Ice (Thunder-Snow)
February 9th Clipper: 1.0"
February 13th Classic: 11" front end/2" backside = 13" (Thunder-Sleet)
February 15th Coastal: 2.5"
February 18th Overrunning: 2.0"

Seasonal Snowfall: 56"
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sw03181
post Jan 30 2014, 07:23 PM
Post #117




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From: South Windsor, CT
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This is another situation similar to Tuesday where IF the pieces come together properly we could have a MECS. The fact that the signal is strong so far out in advance (and fingers crossed it stays that way) does bode well for it to happen. Only time will tell.

This is a more delicate setup BTW. No NAO block, moderate SE ridge and a strong PAC s/w. Definitely a thread-the-needle event but if threaded properly could be big.

This post has been edited by sw03181: Jan 30 2014, 07:25 PM


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"

2013-2014 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31):
Total Snowfall (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31): 47"
Actual: 38.5"


11/12: T
11/23: T (LES)
12/7: T
12/9: T
12/10: 3.0"
12/14: 6.0"
12/17: 4.0"
12/24: T (just a few flakes)
12/26: 0.5"
1/1-1/3: 7.5"
1/10: 1.0"
1/19: T
1/21-1/22: 4" (FAIL)
1/29 "HECS": T
2/3: 3"
2/5: 9.5"
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WinterWolf
post Jan 30 2014, 07:28 PM
Post #118




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From: Interior CT.
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Jan 30 2014, 07:19 PM) *
the video was good and I think this storm certainly has potential, i mean how could you say it doesnt. however, we must also keep things in perspective in two completely separate regards.

one has to do with weather - in that there are 2 or 3 systems that come in before this, which will for better or worse set the stage for this storm

the second has to do with the psychology element of the forum - things must be ept in perspective.. if everyone on here is expecting 20 inches in there backyard, you are setting the stage to be dissapointed, even if a storm delvers widespread 10 and spots of 20..there should be a storm, how widespread and how strong is another question.

enjoy the eye candy for just that, eye candy and to quickly decipher trends if you dont have any time to really disect.. but be reasonable with your expectations, and in return, I think this storm will be reasonable to you..


Beautiful POINTS!! Nice Post!
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WinterWolf
post Jan 30 2014, 07:30 PM
Post #119




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From: Interior CT.
Member No.: 27,782





QUOTE(sw03181 @ Jan 30 2014, 07:23 PM) *
This is another situation similar to Tuesday where IF the pieces come together properly we could have a MECS. The fact that the signal is strong so far out in advance (and fingers crossed it stays that way) does bode well for it to happen. Only time will tell.

This is a more delicate setup BTW. No NAO block, moderate SE ridge and a strong PAC s/w. Definitely a thread-the-needle event but if threaded properly could be big.


Just like NEMO...alot of tellies were not in favor for that storm either. Things happen sometimes. Who knows???
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phillyfan
post Jan 30 2014, 07:34 PM
Post #120




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From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(WinterWolf @ Jan 30 2014, 07:12 PM) *
Go watch Steve D's latest video(not just you, I meant anybody interested lol). He talks about all of this...says we all will remember February when it's done!! Take that for whatever it's worth? But he does sound very Intrigued...to say the least. Good Video though.


HM had the same statement yesterday with this being a February to remember. HM's blog


--------------------
Severe Weather 2014

Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/22, 5/27, 7/2, 7/3, 7/8, 7/9, 7/13, 7/14, 7/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 4/22, 5/22, 5/22, 5/27, 7/2, 7/8, 7/13
Flood Watch: 4/29-5/1
Flash Flood Watch: 5/16-17, 6/12-13, 6/13-14, 7/3-4, 7/14-16
Flash Flood Warning: 6/13, 7/2
Flood Warning: 4/30-5/1

5/22 - Marble sized hail
5/27 - 54 mph wind gust
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