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> Dec 1-2 MidAtlantic/Northeast Stom, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
Blizz
post Nov 23 2015, 03:30 AM
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Euro suggests a potential snow storm to start the month... GFS shows a cutter/late Miller B transfer.

Let the fun begin (hopefully) !

EDIT: 4th-6th appears to be the snow threat. Potential rainy weather from the 1st-2nd during this time perioid.

This post has been edited by Blizz: Nov 24 2015, 06:25 PM


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 7.5"
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 5


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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Blizz
post Nov 23 2015, 03:30 AM
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--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 7.5"
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 5


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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NorEaster07
post Nov 23 2015, 06:00 AM
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GFS Boring. Canadian Boring.
Euro .... Eye opener. Waiting for the Ensembles to finish now.

Basically the GFS has the storm right over NYC
GGEM has it over CT
Euro has it off the coast with enough cold air around to produce a snowstorm down to the coast. Wont even mention numbers. But here's the output from the Euro00z for

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: NYC    LAT=  40.77 LON=  -73.98 ELE=    89

                                            00Z NOV23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
TUE 12Z 01-DEC   4.2    -0.9    1017      76      92    0.02     556     542    
TUE 18Z 01-DEC   3.3    -2.0    1010      91      99    0.44     551     543    
WED 00Z 02-DEC   2.2    -1.8    1006      91      78    0.48     543     539    
WED 06Z 02-DEC   3.2    -1.2    1006      69      91    0.59     542     538    
WED 12Z 02-DEC   1.6     1.5    1011      78      19    0.00     548     539


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NorEaster07
post Nov 23 2015, 06:19 AM
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EuroENS is out. Doesn't agree to a certain degree.. Does have "a storm" but well off shore and weak.


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Nov 23 2015, 06:40 AM
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Back for another season of epic let downs and model disagreements lol. I'm excited.
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dsnowchaser
post Nov 23 2015, 06:50 AM
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I'll throw the latest MREFs into the mix. Pretty good agreement on a storm for the time frame I'd say.
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--------------------

Northwest of Baltimore, MD
2 miles South of Mason Dixon Line



Winter 2014/15 total (47.7")
Winter 2015/16 total (40")



( Total snowfall 2014/15 - (47.7")
( first accum snow) Nov 14th - .2"
( biggest to date) Jan.18th (4"),Jan 26th(4.5") Feb. 16th 3.25
Feb. 21st (9"), Mar. 5th ( 10.75"),Mar.20th (3.2")
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 23 2015, 08:42 AM
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Just too far out...excited that time period seems to be cooler then end of this week. At this point looking at temp guidance I would think temps will be marginal. But so far out, just nice to have something to follow.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 23 2015, 08:47 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Nov 23 2015, 06:40 AM) *
Back for another season of epic let downs and model disagreements lol. I'm excited.

LOL!!!!!!
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kpk33x
post Nov 23 2015, 09:03 AM
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It is going to have to cool down significantly over the weekend or Monday for this to happen especially south, we will probably be up around 50 on Friday.

(NWS has us at 34F high on Sunday, that's more like it)


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: 4.25" (Dec. 27th)

# subzero lows to date: 1
Lowest temperature: -3F
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SnowMan11
post Nov 23 2015, 09:28 AM
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Good news , -EPO and +PNA. Bad news, +AO and +NAO. Very marginal setup if it occurs but we still have a few days . There will definetly be a storm around this timeframe.


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
Total : 18.5 "
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SnowMan11
post Nov 23 2015, 09:41 AM
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Euro ensembles are offshore while the Euro Control is just offshore. Way different than the GFS .


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
Total : 18.5 "
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jdrenken
post Nov 23 2015, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 23 2015, 05:19 AM) *
EuroENS is out. Doesn't agree to a certain degree.. Does have "a storm" but well off shore and weak.


Attached Image


Hmmmm...


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--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Undertakerson
post Nov 23 2015, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 23 2015, 09:46 AM) *
Hmmmm...

OK - so honest question here (I mean one without bias). What role, if any, do the App's play when comparing the BSR to the modeling of an east coast storm - esp. a transfer situation?

Seems to me that the BSR "may" not be able to account for the presence of a higher land mass such as we see in Miller B cases. The BSR has no mountains to deal with, ergo - not as solid of an indicator as we might like it to be. Not to mention the influence of the baroclinic zone which, as a rule, sets up off the VA/NC coast - again, something that I don't think the BSR can account for.

This system is approaching from the west (almost the whole way) and the flow would almost have to take it east (not north) from there.

This has puzzled me for some time (since last year) and I'm just wondering.


--------------------
Please, knock before you walk into my dreams.
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jdrenken
post Nov 23 2015, 09:56 AM
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Couldn't help but laugh. This bobbit guy is a troll anyway.
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--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 23 2015, 09:55 AM
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Hres 00z ecmfw
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Means and hres with dev
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http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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jdrenken
post Nov 23 2015, 09:58 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 23 2015, 08:56 AM) *
OK - so honest question here (I mean one without bias). What role, if any, do the App's play when comparing the BSR to the modeling of an east coast storm - esp. a transfer situation?

Seems to me that the BSR "may" not be able to account for the presence of a higher land mass such as we see in Miller B cases. The BSR has no mountains to deal with, ergo - not as solid of an indicator as we might like it to be. Not to mention the influence of the baroclinic zone which, as a rule, sets up off the VA/NC coast - again, something that I don't think the BSR can account for.

This system is approaching from the west (almost the whole way) and the flow would almost have to take it east (not north) from there.

This has puzzled me for some time (since last year) and I'm just wondering.


We are looking at Rossby Wave interactions with Mountain Torque as we speak. wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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telejunkie
post Nov 23 2015, 09:58 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 23 2015, 10:46 AM) *
Hmmmm...

looks to even have a 50/50 storm in that depiction…overnight GFS has the 50/50 early on the 30th as well as a HP anchored over southern Canada, but then scoots the 50/50 out quickly, allowing the HP to get wedged out as well.
Looks to be a good one to track...


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9"
12/12 - 9”
12/22 - 5”
12/25 - 10"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 42”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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jdrenken
post Nov 23 2015, 10:07 AM
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If they went 'wheels up' on a winter weather flight on the last storm, look for another one for this storm.

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015

VALID 12Z THU NOV 26 2015 - 12Z MON NOV 30 2015

...OVERVIEW...

IN A BROAD SENSE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A PATTERN
INVOLVING A WRN CONUS UPR LOW THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS/MS VLY... WITH SEPARATE AREAS OF
WINTRY PCPN AND HVY RNFL LIKELY IMPACTING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
TRAVEL DEPENDING ON THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES WITH SOME FCST DETAILS OVER THE LOWER 48
AS SPREAD BEGINS TO DEVELOP AFTER DAY 3 THU.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

ALREADY AROUND THU-FRI THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DAY TO DAY
OSCILLATIONS IN HOW MUCH INITIAL WRN UPR LOW ENERGY EJECTS INTO
THE NRN TIER VERSUS HANGING BACK TO COMBINE WITH ONE OR MORE OTHER
PIECES OF ENERGY TO MAINTAIN AN UPR LOW OVER THE WEST. THE
MAJORITY OF LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW LEANING TOWARD MOST OF THE
ENERGY STAYING OVER THE WEST... INCORPORATING WEAK UNDERCUTTING
ERN PAC ENERGY... AND LEAVING A FAIRLY DEEP UPR LOW OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AS PART OF A WRN NOAM REX BLOCK
CONFIGURATION. AS OF DAY 5 SAT THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN HAS THE WEAKEST
SOLN FOR THIS FEATURE. THERE IS FAIR CLUSTERING TOWARD THE IDEA
OF THIS UPR LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
DAY 7 MON. THIS CONSENSUS IS TOO GREAT TO IGNORE BUT GIVEN THE
BLOCKINESS OF THE WRN NOAM PATTERN INTO DAY 6 SUN IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF FUTURE GUIDANCE TRENDS SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH EWD
TIMING BY DAY 7 MON.


DOWNSTREAM THE GREATEST FCST PROBLEM HAS BEEN WITH THE
AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF NRN STREAM TROUGHING. WIDE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD THAT HAD BEEN DEVELOPING BY THE WEEKEND HAS NOT NARROWED AS
MUCH AS DESIRED WITH THE ONLY 24-HR TRENDS OF NOTE AS OF DAY 6 SUN
BEING A TRIMMING OF THE MOST AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING A LITTLE HIGHER WITH HGTS
ALOFT AS WELL. OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE STILL TENDING TO SHOW MORE
AMPLIFIED ERN TROUGHING. THIS IDEA CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS SOME
DEGREE OF ERN TROUGHING WOULD BE FAVORED BY TELECONNECTIONS
RELATIVE TO THE MOST PROMINENT HGT ANOMALY CENTERS OVER THE NRN
PAC/WRN CANADA/NRN ATLC BY THE D+8 TIME FRAME. EARLIER IN THE
PERIOD... LESS INCORPORATION OF WRN ENERGY INTO THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH HAS LED TO A WEAKER/FASTER TREND WITH A FRONTAL WAVE THAT
HAS BEEN FCST TO TRACK THROUGH THE GRTLKS LATE IN THE WEEK.


OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DIFFER NOTICEABLY IN PRECISE WRN UPR LOW
POSN AND ERN CONUS TROUGH ATTRIBUTES AT SOME FCST HRS BUT OFFER
SOME PLAUSIBLE DETAIL ENHANCEMENTS RELATIVE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
THUS PREFER TO MAINTAIN A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND THAT
EMPHASIZES THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND WAITING UNTIL
DAY 6 SUN BEFORE ADJUSTING TOWARD GREATER THAN 50 PCT WEIGHTING OF
THE 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS. EVEN DAY 7 MON KEEPS 20 PCT
OPERATIONAL WEIGHTING AS THE EJECTING WRN UPR LOW WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED THAN IN THE MEANS.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Nov 23 2015, 10:33 AM
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Just throwing it out there...JB just posted the 192hr PSD





--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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jdrenken
post Nov 23 2015, 10:55 AM
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The excuses are starting...
Attached Image


Where do these kids get their information from??!!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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