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> Dec 21-23rd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range D10+
MaineJay
post Today, 06:13 AM
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Last 8 EPS
Attached Image

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php


15/0z with spread

Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...ERIOD=&WMO=



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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Today, 06:25 AM
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Mark this day on your calendar folks, after having looked at 500mb across the models, I (God, I can't believe I'm going to type this) get the idea that the CMC has the correct idea on this time period.

It's not so much its verbatim output (on 00z, or any run before that, for that matter) but just that it seems to lie within the "hit the middle one Rocky" scope of the overall picture.

For the sake of my future sanity, I do hope I become dispelled of that notion - but I try to keep it honest with myself and don't trust the output of Euro or GFS.

Did I mention that I hope the CMC does not turn out correctly? (I might have to pull out the rusted pliers sad.gif )
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MaineJay
post Today, 06:33 AM
Post #143




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 15 2017, 06:25 AM) *
Mark this day on your calendar folks, after having looked at 500mb across the models, I (God, I can't believe I'm going to type this) get the idea that the CMC has the correct idea on this time period.

It's not so much its verbatim output (on 00z, or any run before that, for that matter) but just that it seems to lie within the "hit the middle one Rocky" scope of the overall picture.

For the sake of my future sanity, I do hope I become dispelled of that notion - but I try to keep it honest with myself and don't trust the output of Euro or GFS.

Did I mention that I hope the CMC does not turn out correctly? (I might have to pull out the rusted pliers sad.gif )



laugh.gif
Attached Image



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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Today, 06:35 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 15 2017, 06:33 AM) *
laugh.gif
Attached Image

sad.gif sad.gif I know

Maybe I should consult with my Dr. if this condition lasts for longer than 48 hrs?
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TC1
post Today, 07:45 AM
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I know we're not supposed to take the output verbatim this far out, but the fact that the GFS repeatedly has an ice storm looming is... concerning.
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MaineJay
post Today, 08:06 AM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Dec 15 2017, 07:45 AM) *
I know we're not supposed to take the output verbatim this far out, but the fact that the GFS repeatedly has an ice storm looming is... concerning.



Remember this "event", models insisted a widespread ice storm for a while, was kind of a wimper.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...3044&st=380


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PoconoSnow
post Today, 08:31 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 15 2017, 08:06 AM) *
Remember this "event", models insisted a widespread ice storm for a while, was kind of a wimper.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...3044&st=380


This is NOT a forecast... just something I've grown to notice over time watching models.

A widespread crushing ice storm is modeled far more than the actual outcome.

Conditions for a large ice event need to be just right or you get what amounts to be a narrow band.

Also, any snow that comes before the ice helps to "insulate" roads and branches.



This is not to say that this isn't that. It's just models seem to have an even harder time getting ice just right.


Now all that being said. The synoptic set up for an ice storm for the OHV into the northeast does look in play. Does it come to fruition, we shall watch and see and discuss along the way.



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MaineJay
post Today, 08:35 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 15 2017, 08:31 AM) *
This is NOT a forecast... just something I've grown to notice over time watching models.

A widespread crushing ice storm is modeled far more than the actual outcome.

Conditions for a large ice event need to be just right or you get what amounts to be a narrow band.

Also, any snow that comes before the ice helps to "insulate" roads and branches.
This is not to say that this isn't that. It's just models seem to have an even harder time getting ice just right.
Now all that being said. The synoptic set up for an ice storm for the OHV into the northeast does look in play. Does it come to fruition, we shall watch and see and discuss along the way.



Agree 100%. Toughest precip type to forecast, and the most "fragile" is the best way I can put it. By fragile, I mean there are numerous factors that can disrupt the inversion necessary.



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PA ROAD DAWG
post Today, 08:35 AM
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I think maybe it's time we change the thread dates to 23-25 ? Seems like that system is the one that most of us are referring to
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PoconoSnow
post Today, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 15 2017, 08:35 AM) *
I think maybe it's time we change the thread dates to 23-25 ? Seems like that system is the one that most of us are referring to


No, there is no need to yet

We have no idea how the energy that's Progged to create a cutoff out west injects itself into the flow

The cmc has a 21-24 event

The gfs is a 22-25 event

It could be one storm or even a two part ordeal.

But the last thing I'll do is chase dates looking for a sweet spot a week out especially given the current upper level look.





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LJS Index has been tweaked for winter 2017/18 - NOW 4.2x more accurate!
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PoconoSnow
post Today, 08:43 AM
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Wpc 3-7d surface forecast



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LJS Index has been tweaked for winter 2017/18 - NOW 4.2x more accurate!
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jdrenken
post Today, 09:04 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 15 2017, 07:35 AM) *
Agree 100%. Toughest precip type to forecast, and the most "fragile" is the best way I can put it. By fragile, I mean there are numerous factors that can disrupt the inversion necessary.





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MaineJay
post Today, 09:19 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 15 2017, 09:04 AM) *



Sounds Italian, fancy.


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SnowMan11
post Today, 03:16 PM
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Euro at 144 is very interesting

It wouldn't take much to get the storm up here especially in phase 7


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shaulov4
post Today, 04:33 PM
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I like this for the 23rd-25th..maybe we will move it, but I am not in charge of this thread so maybe not .. laugh.gif
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MD Blue Ridge
post Today, 04:35 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 15 2017, 04:33 PM) *
I like this for the 23rd-25th..maybe we will move it, but I am not in charge of this thread so maybe not .. laugh.gif


Good post.


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