Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

9 Pages V  « < 7 8 9  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 31 2017, 09:27 PM
Post #161




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,276
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Jul 22 2017, 10:45 PM) *
It's almost August and it's been quite a heat wave in Missouri . Someone get some winter talk going PLEASE Before we know it were moving into fall and then ....��



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 22 2017, 10:56 PM) *
How about talk of another Nina winter? laugh.gif



Neutral to slightly negative PDO per CFS.


JAMSTEC is consistent with the idea of a weak PDO (weakly negative, neutral, or weakly positive). ENSO has been trending cooler every month since April.

Cool-neutral ENSO or Nina may not necessarily be bad for winter, but a developing -PDO like CFS would be.


QUOTE(grace @ Jul 23 2017, 01:24 PM) *
At least looking like no central based for winter like last winter


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 23 2017, 10:13 PM) *
Too early to tell. The forecast ENSO placement looks very similar to this year's forecast. With the tendencies for enhanced easterlies to pop up around and just west of the IDL, wouldn't be surprised if CFS is missing out on a cooler Nino 4.

Some interesting differences. Much cooler in the northeast Pacific in the eastern Pacific in the southern hemisphere. Also, last year's Nina died much earlier than CFS's forecast. Nino 3.4 hit 0C as the calendar flipped to January, while CFS's forecast is to peak when that happens.

Last year


This year


QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Jul 24 2017, 12:30 PM) *
Too early to tell is an understatement in July. But what I think is important here is incorporating the information from a full modeling perspective. Being someone that works with models, albeit of a different kind (financial), all day, there is one key principle that is valid for all of them. Every model is wrong, it's just a matter of determining the magnitude of the miss. Let's take the CFS from last winter to put this to the test.

Below is the Jul forecast (in fact, I used your link ) from the CFS:



Now, let's contrast that to the OSDPD data from 01/16/2017:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/...t.1.16.2017.gif

Clearly, there are major differences. The CFS is too cold in the eastern ENSO regions, way too warm in the PDO region, too warm in the Atlantic between the equator and 20°N off Africa, too cold in the South China Sea and entirely way too warm globally in a band between 20°S and 60°S.

Now, let's look at the current CFS spaghetti plots for July 2017 (Region 3.4):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv...3/nino34Sea.gif

First thing that jumps out here is the complete miss in T+1 (July) for region 3.4. The latest ENSO update from today (07/24/17) shows the following:

http://i.imgur.com/B6hI2lC.png

Net, unless we see a drastic decline in 3.4 temps next week, the CFS will have underpredicted its temp by almost 0.5° for August 1. Looking at the subsurface, there is nothing that would immediately facilitate such a drop either. In fact, the subsurface largely suggests a continuance of the current conditions for the foreseeable future (minus weekly fluctuations due to trades activity).

http://i.imgur.com/KEbTo9u.png

Comparing the CFS against the latest global long-range ENSO modeling suite, you can see the CFS is clearly a cold outlier in the NDJ, DJF and JFM periods currently (heavy blue line).

http://i.imgur.com/MdknQPv.png

Net, until a body of evidence presents itself differently, I dont know how anyone could not say the prevailing best theory currently is for an ENSO neutral winter. The PDO is the larger question mark right now, but with that, I go back to a notion this group has entertained multiple precedecing winters. That notion was the PDO was going to flip. According to JISAO, the last time it was negative was December 2013. NCDC is different with short periods (<3 months) during the same overall period, but largely still positive. At this point, I think you are going to need a moderate/strong Nina to flip it, both of which I would confidently say are not probablistically high possibilities today. Ultimately, given no radical shifts between now and then, I believe this winter will be largely defined by other forcing mechanisms.

Note: Any reference of "you" in this is not directed at any one person, but rather a general reference


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 24 2017, 10:25 PM) *
Good points.

The subsurface is quite a bit different from this time last year. That does argue against a Nina winter.

You didn't mention that each ENSO region cooled down since last week, though it was only by 0.1C or 0.2C in each region. Still, trends are your friends (look at me saying that to someone who's in the financial market )

The Nino 3.4 cooldown in the next few weeks shown by CFS may be possible because of the enhanced trades that are forecast. Time will tell.

I'm still leaning toward neutral ENSO for this winter... starting to think cold-neutral may be possible especially if the enhanced trades become a recurring factor.


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 28 2017, 11:18 AM) *
Comparison lingo? Lol. The poimt of his post was from the comparisons. No? I think it was a matter of misunderstanding or comparing apples to oranges.

Check it out.. CFS was right? Big drop. Drastic drop?

[attachment=327142:Screensh...8_110626.png]


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 28 2017, 10:23 PM) *
Don't underestimate the power of anomalous easterlies. Subsurface is not very cool, but can't forget the source region that the easterlies are blowing SSTs from.


[attachment=327161:cdas_sfl...t_cpac_1.png]

Difference from last week
https://i.imgur.com/gAfJ5Hg.png

Granted, greatest anomalies have been in the eastern half of Nino 3.4 and east of the greatest 850mb wind anomalies, but it can't just be a coincidence that this is happening at the same time

It's been established that CFS is picking up on anomalous trades that aren't actually there, so the fact that it's showing strong easterlies in the middle of July with not much of a temp drop in the region suggests it didn't actually happen... but this one may be the real deal.

Regardless of whether or not my explanation is correct, it'll be interesting to see if CFS is right about this major cooldown.


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 28 2017, 10:38 PM) *
Also can't ignore the SOI lately. Relatively strong high pressure at Tahiti (central southern hemisphere tropical Pacific) suggests enhanced easterly winds (high pressure is counterclockwise winds in the SH). SOI is calculated by taking the difference between Darwin and Tahiti (and some other stuff thrown in there), so +SOI implies La Nina conditions.

https://i.imgur.com/1259Ond.png


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 31 2017, 09:43 PM) *
Looks like CFS2 was onto something and didnt have a cold bias after all? Not sure about other times but looks like it caught onto it nicely this time around.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/892130410855059457

[attachment=327195:Screensh...1_213928.png]


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 31 2017, 10:07 PM) *
heh

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jul 31 2017, 09:28 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Aug 4 2017, 07:30 AM
Post #162




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,012
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





CFS monthly, which updates daily for the next month, is predicting a lot of warming in ENSO regions 3.0 & 3.4 during September & Cooling in regions 1&2:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...0804.201709.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Aug 4 2017, 07:56 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 4 2017, 08:30 PM
Post #163




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,276
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(grace @ Aug 4 2017, 08:30 AM) *
CFS monthly, which updates daily for the next month, is predicting a lot of warming in ENSO regions 3.0 & 3.4 during September & Cooling in regions 1&2:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...0804.201709.gif

Not sure what to think about all these CFS products



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Aug 4 2017, 08:51 PM
Post #164




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,012
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





Yea, it confuses me wacko.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
scwxman
post Aug 14 2017, 11:04 AM
Post #165




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 142
Joined: 4-January 11
From: Greenville, SC
Member No.: 24,964





Sorta looks like the La' Neutral of last winter. Hmm.



--------------------
Without Cold, there is no life. Without Snow, there is no joy :)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 14 2017, 08:26 PM
Post #166




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,276
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Another big drop in 3.4 this week

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 07:19 PM
Post #167




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,276
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Submerged cold pool really building up now




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Today, 04:35 PM
Post #168




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,815
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





-0.8 on new CFSv2

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/897922926464323584

Attached File  tweet4.jpg ( 258.03K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

9 Pages V  « < 7 8 9
Reply to this topicStart new topic
3 User(s) are reading this topic (3 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 16th August 2017 - 06:28 PM