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> Long Range Summer 2017 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and more
ClicheVortex2014
post May 23 2017, 09:35 PM
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There's currently a big divergence regarding what happens after the system on the 27th. GFS wants to bring warmth back soon after, Euro doesn't. This can be explained by the disagreement with the MJO. GFS takes the MJO more into phase 2 and dies out, while Euro keeps it closer to phase 3 and the wave continues.



Beyond what immediately happens after the 27th, Euro has potential to make it into phase 4 and possibly beyond. This would mean warm weather in the first half of June.



So if the GFS is right, warmth will return after the 27th but the MJO dies out, which makes the first half of June more uncertain.

If Euro is right, the weather pattern will be cool and severe weather relatively stagnant... however, if it stays consistent with the MJO wave continuing, then we can expect warmth in the first half of June.

Euro was the outlier with the most recent MJO wave and it turned out to be correct, so I'm favoring Euro regarding the MJO. However, BSR has another severe threat ~4 days after the one on the 27th-28th, so perhaps Euro is going to cave into the GFS a little bit and allow for more of a warmup ahead of the next system.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 23 2017, 09:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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saracenic arch
post May 24 2017, 02:02 PM
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https://www.climate.gov/news-features/under...hot-summer-2017
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kpk33x
post May 25 2017, 10:44 AM
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QUOTE(saracenic arch @ May 24 2017, 03:02 PM) *


If they're using the 30 year "normal" temperatures that are given for each station, then I'd agree there's going to be more chance of an "above normal" summer...because the 30 year normal temps given are understated from the actual artithmetic mean by 0.6-1.2F.

Drives me nuts - they should just do the basic math.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 3 (through 5/22)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 25 2017, 11:49 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ May 25 2017, 11:44 AM) *
If they're using the 30 year "normal" temperatures that are given for each station, then I'd agree there's going to be more chance of an "above normal" summer...because the 30 year normal temps given are understated from the actual artithmetic mean by 0.6-1.2F.

Drives me nuts - they should just do the basic math.

Well soon our averages will cover over some of the hottest years from 1990-2020, I know we aren't done with the 2010s but the trend is there. So this may make it do either one of three things. Comparably have temps lower then normal during the 2020 period based off the higher averages, things may just continue on track and stay warmer then average which is possible but honestly way to early to make that call, or we stick around average and don't see as large anomalies as we have been seeing lately. The latter seems to be the one I'm thinking will occur but we have to remember that in many cases it is the overnight temps that have changed the most in the past 10-20 years. You start off with a warm night you are bound to have a warmer day maybe not as extreme but it will be there. Have to really check globally but this increase I believe has been from an increase in water vapor from evaporation of the warm oceans you don't need much of an increase to really skew temps.

Here nor there they seem to be incorporating a fairly substantial pattern flip across the country with less storm action out west and less troughing with certain ridging patterns taking place.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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gulfofslides
post May 25 2017, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 25 2017, 12:49 PM) *
Well soon our averages will cover over some of the hottest years from 1990-2020, I know we aren't done with the 2010s but the trend is there. So this may make it do either one of three things. Comparably have temps lower then normal during the 2020 period based off the higher averages, things may just continue on track and stay warmer then average which is possible but honestly way to early to make that call, or we stick around average and don't see as large anomalies as we have been seeing lately. The latter seems to be the one I'm thinking will occur but we have to remember that in many cases it is the overnight temps that have changed the most in the past 10-20 years. You start off with a warm night you are bound to have a warmer day maybe not as extreme but it will be there. Have to really check globally but this increase I believe has been from an increase in water vapor from evaporation of the warm oceans you don't need much of an increase to really skew temps.

Here nor there they seem to be incorporating a fairly substantial pattern flip across the country with less storm action out west and less troughing with certain ridging patterns taking place.

The pacific and atlantic appear to be cooling, whether they stay that way for a prolonged period will determine global temps anomalies
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 25 2017, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ May 25 2017, 01:14 PM) *
The pacific and atlantic appear to be cooling, whether they stay that way for a prolonged period will determine global temps anomalies

If anything we may seeing a change in the cycle of oceanic temps but this takes years to accomplish so while we may see short term temp relief the long term still shows an overall warm or warming regime for now.

So yes oceanic temps help dictate the average but water vapor from heat release in the ocean is still ongoing and causing many other issues then just tempS and presumably will do so for a number of years to come. One of these days though I hate using it as the idea of a switch being flipped but it certainly may very well be the case that we go into a new average with all aspects such as temp precip anomalies and 500mb pattern as it changes from mesoscale processes.

Time will tell for sure curious to see the roles the ocean anomalies play as we head into winter across the u.s.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: May 25 2017, 12:27 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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OSNW3
post May 25 2017, 01:32 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 10 2017, 10:14 AM) *
Latest outlook per RRWT NH forward season suggests a warm Summer in the United States with a moisture bullseye over the Great Lakes.




http://www.consonantchaos.com/index.html


Recent RRWT NH forward season outlooks paint a more average Summer temperature for the Western United States.



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snowsux
post May 25 2017, 05:16 PM
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A gloomy summer in the east is on tap for sure. Then a return to the western ridge / eastern trough regime for fall and winter, as per JB's guidance.
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kpk33x
post May 26 2017, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 25 2017, 12:49 PM) *
Well soon our averages will cover over some of the hottest years from 1990-2020, I know we aren't done with the 2010s but the trend is there. So this may make it do either one of three things. Comparably have temps lower then normal during the 2020 period based off the higher averages, things may just continue on track and stay warmer then average which is possible but honestly way to early to make that call, or we stick around average and don't see as large anomalies as we have been seeing lately. The latter seems to be the one I'm thinking will occur but we have to remember that in many cases it is the overnight temps that have changed the most in the past 10-20 years. You start off with a warm night you are bound to have a warmer day maybe not as extreme but it will be there. Have to really check globally but this increase I believe has been from an increase in water vapor from evaporation of the warm oceans you don't need much of an increase to really skew temps.

Here nor there they seem to be incorporating a fairly substantial pattern flip across the country with less storm action out west and less troughing with certain ridging patterns taking place.


Back when we were using the arithmetic normal, 1961-1990 means, you can see the differences and also the influence of the relatively chilly 1960s. But this "adjustment" of lowering the normal temperatures started with the 1971-2000 normal. I inquired about it and an NWS employee thought it may have had to do with the ASOS conversion in the mid 1990s. Therefore the 1971-2000 means included 5 years of ASOS and 25 years of non-ASOS. The "adjustments" lowered the means by 0.6-1.2F depending on the month. Presumably the 1981-2010 data would not have to be "adjusted" as much as it would contain 15 years of ASOS. Not so, the adjustments remain the same. That's why I put up so many posts stressing the arithmetic means.

You are exactly correct about it being mainly higher overnight lows factoring into the increases in temperatures. I attribute much of that to UHI influence and the fact that a much higher % of stations are in locations at airports that have become surrounded by urban development (BWI is a perfect example in the last 40 years).

Even up here in the hinterlands, North Conway utilizes the adjustments on the normal temperatures, and I can see a trend upward in the overnight lows since the 60s, although not really in the maxes. Our all time high temperature record still stands from 1975, and we haven't had a 100 degree reading since 2001.

When we move to 1991-2020 normal, I am sure they will increase, given the hot summers of 1995, 99, 2002, 2010, 11, 12. But even with 25 years of ASOS, I'm sure it will still be "adjusted" just as much.

I don't think the northeast is going to see a super-hot summer, especially if the wet pattern holds into June. I will have to post on another thread about the correlation of spring rainfall versus average and summer temperatures...I've looked at it and dry springs will more often than not produce warmer than normal summers.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 3 (through 5/22)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2017, 07:45 PM
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First heat-related advisory of the year ohmy.gif
QUOTE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.Hot and humid conditions will result in dangerous heat across
portions of North Texas on Saturday Afternoon...

TXZ091-092-101>103-116>119-131>133-270500-
/O.NEW.KFWD.HT.Y.0001.170527T1900Z-170528T0000Z/
Montague-Cooke-Jack-Wise-Denton-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Hood-Somervell-Johnson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Jacksboro,
Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville,
Flower Mound, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth,
Arlington, Dallas, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, and Burleson
335 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

* TEMPERATURES...Max temperatures will climb into the mid 90s
with heat index values in the 103 to 107 degree range.

* IMPACTS...Heat exhaustion and heat stroke will be possible for
individuals that work or play outside without adequate shade or
water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to check on persons with health problems and the
elderly...as they are the most susceptible to heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Never leave young children or pets in an enclosed
vehicle...even for a short time...as temperatures can quickly rise
to life threatening levels.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 26 2017, 09:59 PM
Post #31




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QUOTE(kpk33x @ May 26 2017, 09:03 AM) *
Back when we were using the arithmetic normal, 1961-1990 means, you can see the differences and also the influence of the relatively chilly 1960s. But this "adjustment" of lowering the normal temperatures started with the 1971-2000 normal. I inquired about it and an NWS employee thought it may have had to do with the ASOS conversion in the mid 1990s. Therefore the 1971-2000 means included 5 years of ASOS and 25 years of non-ASOS. The "adjustments" lowered the means by 0.6-1.2F depending on the month. Presumably the 1981-2010 data would not have to be "adjusted" as much as it would contain 15 years of ASOS. Not so, the adjustments remain the same. That's why I put up so many posts stressing the arithmetic means.

You are exactly correct about it being mainly higher overnight lows factoring into the increases in temperatures. I attribute much of that to UHI influence and the fact that a much higher % of stations are in locations at airports that have become surrounded by urban development (BWI is a perfect example in the last 40 years).

Even up here in the hinterlands, North Conway utilizes the adjustments on the normal temperatures, and I can see a trend upward in the overnight lows since the 60s, although not really in the maxes. Our all time high temperature record still stands from 1975, and we haven't had a 100 degree reading since 2001.

When we move to 1991-2020 normal, I am sure they will increase, given the hot summers of 1995, 99, 2002, 2010, 11, 12. But even with 25 years of ASOS, I'm sure it will still be "adjusted" just as much.

I don't think the northeast is going to see a super-hot summer, especially if the wet pattern holds into June. I will have to post on another thread about the correlation of spring rainfall versus average and summer temperatures...I've looked at it and dry springs will more often than not produce warmer than normal summers.


Yea we had a similar thing occur over here at KMDT where we were much higher with temps then surrounding areas were recording so they had to adjust the temps. So I get where you are coming at with the means it doesnt make sense it should be adjusted accordingly not similarly but that is a whole different issue.

Yes UHI definitely does play a role in a lot of those ASOS regions and influencing higher temps/means then what would be the case for sure. If I can find the site I was using for reconstruction data of moisture content in the lower atmosphere ( I believe it was surface to 850mb, PBL region) you see a marked difference in moisture content which has huge implications but this is meant for a different thread which we should open up for discussion.

As for the rest of the summer I agree high soil moisture content will keep temps down relatively, if this pattern manages to persist for the rest or good portion of june. One thing for sure though is once the heat does try to take hold the humidity will be just awful.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 26 2017, 10:40 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 26 2017, 10:59 PM) *
Yea we had a similar thing occur over here at KMDT where we were much higher with temps then surrounding areas were recording so they had to adjust the temps. So I get where you are coming at with the means it doesnt make sense it should be adjusted accordingly not similarly but that is a whole different issue.

Yes UHI definitely does play a role in a lot of those ASOS regions and influencing higher temps/means then what would be the case for sure. If I can find the site I was using for reconstruction data of moisture content in the lower atmosphere ( I believe it was surface to 850mb, PBL region) you see a marked difference in moisture content which has huge implications but this is meant for a different thread which we should open up for discussion.

As for the rest of the summer I agree high soil moisture content will keep temps down relatively, if this pattern manages to persist for the rest or good portion of june. One thing for sure though is once the heat does try to take hold the humidity will be just awful.


Found the charts site. Constructed one from the equator to the north pole of the whole NH on seasonal average at a monolevel (takes it as a column whole, so not the greatest) but we can see here for sure PWAT values have changed in the NH as a whole fairly comparable to the late 40's and 50's:
Attached File  climindex.72.70.162.4.145.21.37.29.png ( 8.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Air temps taken at same region except at 1000mb unfortunately only goes back to 1948.
Attached File  climindex.72.70.162.4.145.21.42.24.png ( 6.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: May 26 2017, 10:43 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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