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NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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Taunton:

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
112 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Big Picture...

Subtropical high remains in control across the Southern USA while a
general zonal flow continues across Canada and the Northern USA. The
flow becomes less zonal next midweek as Alaska closed upper low digs
south over the Gulf, subtropical upper ridge builds north over the
Western USA, and upper low over Hudsons Bay digs south into the
Northeast USA.

One shortwave moves across New England Saturday night, with brief
cooling aloft that destabilizes the airmass Sunday. A second
shortwave crosses New England Wednesday as the Hudsons Bay low
approaches and moves a supporting jet max across the region.

Contour heights are normal to a little higher than normal through
early next week. As the Quebec closed low deepens, heights over New
England dip below normal midweek.

Model mass and thermal fields from the 00Z suite are in general
agreement through Wednesday, building forecast confidence through
that time. Less agreement in the fields Thursday.

Details:

Tuesday night-Wednesday-Thursday...

Closed low digs over Quebec and the Northeast USA with shortwave
driving a cold front into/through New England. Expect
showers/scattered tstms with the front Tuesday night/Wednesday.
The airmass dries out Thursday, but lingering patches of
moisture in the mixed layer should generate some diurnal sky



Euro12z below normal for this area 25th till end of run 28th

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            12Z AUG18
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
FRI 12Z 18-AUG  22.5    16.7    1013      96     100    0.00     585     574    
FRI 18Z 18-AUG  24.5    18.8    1010      92      80    0.27     585     576    
SAT 00Z 19-AUG  23.4    18.5    1009      97      81    0.07     584     576    
SAT 06Z 19-AUG  21.8    17.6    1009      98      45    0.01     583     575    
SAT 12Z 19-AUG  22.0    15.7    1011      94      78    0.00     582     573    
SAT 18Z 19-AUG  27.3    14.5    1010      55      30    0.00     582     574    
SUN 00Z 20-AUG  24.0    16.2    1010      77      66    0.00     580     571    
SUN 06Z 20-AUG  21.1    15.7    1012      86      73    0.00     579     568    
SUN 12Z 20-AUG  20.9    14.2    1016      78      57    0.00     581     568    
SUN 18Z 20-AUG  26.8    14.4    1016      54      22    0.00     584     570    
MON 00Z 21-AUG  23.0    14.0    1018      77      15    0.00     587     571    
MON 06Z 21-AUG  19.0    14.6    1021      83      33    0.00     587     570    
MON 12Z 21-AUG  20.7    14.5    1022      81      36    0.00     589     570    
MON 18Z 21-AUG  28.8    15.1    1020      46      15    0.00     589     572    
TUE 00Z 22-AUG  23.9    16.3    1019      77      13    0.00     590     573    
TUE 06Z 22-AUG  21.1    16.3    1019      89      15    0.00     588     572    
TUE 12Z 22-AUG  22.4    16.9    1018      83      16    0.00     588     572    
TUE 18Z 22-AUG  29.0    18.3    1014      64      49    0.01     587     574    
WED 00Z 23-AUG  24.5    18.0    1011      90      65    0.03     585     575    
WED 06Z 23-AUG  23.7    18.9    1007      93      47    0.00     581     575    
WED 12Z 23-AUG  23.3    17.0    1006      89      70    0.04     579     573    
WED 18Z 23-AUG  27.3    15.5    1006      60      66    0.02     579     573    
THU 00Z 24-AUG  23.2    14.7    1007      73      49    0.00     578     572    
THU 06Z 24-AUG  19.3    14.3    1008      69      70    0.00     575     568    
THU 12Z 24-AUG  19.1    13.0    1010      77      59    0.00     573     564    
THU 18Z 24-AUG  25.5    12.1    1010      46      63    0.00     573     564    
FRI 00Z 25-AUG  20.8    11.8    1012      68      40    0.00     572     561    
FRI 06Z 25-AUG  17.0    10.9    1015      82      59    0.00     572     559    
FRI 12Z 25-AUG  17.0     9.8    1018      79      33    0.00     572     557    
FRI 18Z 25-AUG  23.4     8.8    1018      43      25    0.00     574     558    
SAT 00Z 26-AUG  19.0     9.1    1020      63      11    0.00     574     558    
SAT 06Z 26-AUG  14.6     7.2    1022      75      12    0.00     574     556    
SAT 12Z 26-AUG  15.0     5.7    1024      72      15    0.00     574     554    
SAT 18Z 26-AUG  21.6     7.3    1023      39      25    0.00     574     554    
SUN 00Z 27-AUG  18.1     7.6    1023      55      33    0.00     573     553    
SUN 06Z 27-AUG  15.0     6.2    1024      77      16    0.00     572     552    
SUN 12Z 27-AUG  15.3     5.8    1025      71      19    0.00     572     550    
SUN 18Z 27-AUG  21.5     7.1    1023      39      18    0.00     572     552    
MON 00Z 28-AUG  18.0     7.3    1023      59      32    0.00     572     553    
MON 06Z 28-AUG  14.5     6.7    1023      78      34    0.00     571     552    
MON 12Z 28-AUG  15.3     6.2    1023      75      19    0.00     572     552
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234683 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
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Amped up. #AccordionJet

Nice deep Cut Off low over PacNW. Seems funny to see Alaska and Northeast U.S in the cool dips. Usually Alaska is warm when the Jet dips in Northeast. I guess it depends and varies at times.

GFS6z for Friday 25th

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234642 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 06:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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GFS12z AND EuroEPS control12z showing another and deeper airmass in the works dropping into southern Canada September 1st digging down.. blink.gif

#wow
#24-?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234607 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 05:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Euro12z 850mb temps Friday 25th

Attached Image


Saturday 26th

Attached Image


850mb Temp Anomaly Saturday 26th

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234596 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 05:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/898269461710491648

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234595 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 01:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Not in discussion range yet (will starting tomorrow) but there might be some crazy 24-36hr temp differences aloft coming next week.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1000 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Monday-Tuesday...

High pressure builds over the region Monday and shifts offshore
south and east by Tuesday. Cross sections show dry air in place at
most levels through Tuesday evening, so expect dry weather both
days. Increasing mid and high clouds Tuesday ahead of the next
weather system. Temps aloft 14-15C Monday and 15-17C Tuesday,
supporting low-mid 80s Monday and mid to upper 80s Tuesday
.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

Closed low digs over Quebec and the Northeast USA with shortwave
driving a cold front into/through New England. Expect
showers/scattered tstms with the front Tuesday night/Wednesday
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234577 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 10:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Paulie P blog today regarding the cool down


QUOTE
Thursday, August 17, 2017 4:26:59 AM


Major cooldown, not so much numbers but coverage, between Aug. 22 and 28 from the Plains to the East
Over the last couple of days, I had to make some big changes on day-to-day temperatures between Aug. 22 and 28. This was a period that I anticipated warmer turning to cooler for the eastern half of the nation. However, the cooling will most likely come sooner. The tropics was the reasoning for the timing issues, which I have shouted out several times. Take a look at the difference in afternoon temperatures Aug. 22, 24 and 26. On the 22nd, the East is out ahead of the main cold front. Temperatures can climb into the 90s across the northern Mid Atlantic. However, behind this front, looking at the 24th, temperatures may hold in the 70s in many areas; that becomes about a 15 degree drop-off on average.

Afternoon temperatures around Aug. 22

Attached Image



Afternoon temperatures around Aug. 24


Attached Image



Now look at Aug. 26, the coverage of below normal readings. Again, these are afternoon temperatures. Take notice of the widespread 60s and 70s from the Midwest to the East. This is a big shake-up, but this is really nothing new from what the models were showing. An area from the central Plains to the Appalachians was expected to struggle on temperatures all Summer with more warming over the West, and also eventually over the top through the northern Plains into the Northeast.

Afternoon temperatures around Aug. 26

Attached Image




If you look at the JMA MJO, which is stronger in Phase 2, it suggests widespread cooling for the eastern half of the nation and that is basically what we are seeing during this period. The European is trending this way and the GFS is sliding toward the solution. However, it may not last as positions of upper troughs and highs from the Pacific to North America shift. There can be some warming after this period, consolidating the cool air over the Plains.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234565 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 05:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Looks like a Tropical Tidbits map but I dont see an option for this with the 850 anomalies + winds.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/897905146394554371

Attached Image


Edit: actually thats WB, nevermind.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234517 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 04:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 04:33 PM) *
blink.gif

Just looked at 12z Temp anom's - do I have to consider pushing the end date beyond the 26th? unsure.gif


GFS12z min temps Saturday 26th morning. It says multiple nights in the 40s for many but I assume reality will be probably for higher elevations or New England?

Attached Image


Also.... Here I am waiting for those single digits at 850mb and Euro wants to show me 3.9C (39°F) couple thousand feet above my head. LOL (Normal is 13C)

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR LAT= 41.37 LON= -73.48 ELE= 456

12Z AUG16
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 06Z 24-AUG 17.0 11.7 1010 74 5 0.00 574 566
THU 12Z 24-AUG 17.8 10.6 1012 75 24 0.00 572 562
THU 18Z 24-AUG 24.2 10.5 1010 45 26 0.00 571 562
FRI 00Z 25-AUG 20.3 11.0 1011 66 56 0.00 570 560
FRI 06Z 25-AUG 16.4 10.2 1013 80 76 0.00 568 557
FRI 12Z 25-AUG 16.6 8.5 1015 78 88 0.00 566 553
FRI 18Z 25-AUG 20.9 7.8 1015 50 66 0.01 567 554
SAT 00Z 26-AUG 18.1 7.8 1017 62 19 0.00 569 555
SAT 06Z 26-AUG 13.9 5.4 1019 75 11 0.00 570 554
SAT 12Z 26-AUG 14.4 3.9 1021 72 15 0.00 570 552
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234514 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 04:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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-0.8 on new CFSv2

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/897922926464323584

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234513 · Replies: · Views: 42,225

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 02:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 16 2017, 03:07 PM) *
Pretty impressive high latitude blocking on that run. If so....-QBO & low solar influence


Check out the Euro12z today vs yesterday for same time frame. It's on it now. Big flip.

Attached Image



And here's the 850mb temp anomalies morning of 24th, 25th, 26th.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234510 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 11:34 AM


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12z GFS today looks deeper than previous runs. Me like.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234504 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 08:20 AM


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00z EuroEPS control has 546 thickness down to Southern Quebec 24th & 25th then down to northern VT 26th & 27th with an ULL over the region. #FootballTaste
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234493 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 07:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Aug 16 2017, 08:27 AM) *
You leave UTS alone! he's having fun. geez. some people.


Lol! I thought I'd be fair since I bug him about the warm threads. tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234492 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 06:15 AM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 16 2017, 06:49 AM) *
I don't have Euro surface temp maps but the 850mb view reflects a similar outcome.


Euro00z for next Thurs-Fri shows Max 60s interior, 70s for coastal plain. Lows 40s/50s interior. 50s/60s near coast and south of NYC

The dews will truly make it feel like Fall is they are low enough.

And even tomorrow the 17th there's a taste with dews in the 40s DURING THE DAY.. In Mid August.

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/897539328527613952


Attached Image

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234484 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 06:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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I saved this discussion from last week, thought it was interesting and glad they pointed it out..

Attached Image

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234483 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 06:02 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Wow, is this the first time we started a warm / cold thread with a "?" over a week away? lol.

These dips keep continuing and naturally they will get colder each time as we move into the cooler seasons. I cant remember the last 90 I had. And lack of 85+ this summer is noticeable on crops.


Only 1 above normal day in last 11 days here.. The shaded cells are the departure from normal for the max and min. Yet the month is only -0.4 below normal. Thanks to first 4 days of the month. I remember May where just 3-5 days made the whole month above normal.

Attached Image



Edit: Yesterday was classic example of how clouds keep the day well below normal (Mid 70s) but keep the night above normal (Near 70).

With these troughs all Spring and Summer clouds & precip have been the big theme.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234482 · Replies: · Views: 1,312

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 16 2017, 05:52 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Aug 15 2017, 04:44 PM) *
They've learned their lesson after the last two years! Lol



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 15 2017, 08:08 PM) *
Hah. That's a good one. Just give it another year.

Agreed, surprised about the lack of hype in their outlook.


Got around to adding to the compilation. I forgot "Chill to the bone" and "Penetrating Cold".

I wonder if last years was because they needed more viewers on their site. Did seem odd and out of place they did that.


Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234481 · Replies: · Views: 86,943

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 15 2017, 03:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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The Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast

At least theres no "numbing cold & snowy" type words on there. Lol

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234447 · Replies: · Views: 86,943

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 9 2017, 05:48 PM


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Amen.

Another summer day with low dews and temps staying under 83. Sunny to boot. Amazing for August. Humidity controls my comfort more than temps. Sun IS strong though and it reminds you its still Summer.

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in today, then pass east on Thursday.

It doesn`t get much better for the beginning of August. The
fcst is on track.

A tranquil weather day is ahead with high pressure across the
area. Winds will generally be light, skies mostly clear and
humidity low. Highs will be close to climatological normals..


Status Quo.

QUOTE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
317 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The pattern that has been across the area for much of the summer
so far doesn`t look to change much as we head into mid-August.
Basically, upper troughs across srn Canada and the Great Lakes
region continue to swing down across the Northeast and then head
out into the Atlantic
. One trough will be crossing the lower
Great Lakes and New England at the beginning of the long term
and into Sat and then another will follow for Mon- Wed..

Temperatures through the extended period will remain mostly
seasonable or a few degrees below normal. Highs will mostly be
in the 80-85 degree range with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
No significant outbreaks for excessive heat are expected.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234092 · Replies: · Views: 46,510

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 8 2017, 09:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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How many times have we said "what season is this?" In the past couple weeks? Lol

Upton. Storm went from Kentucky to south of Long Island yesterday. Another south of LI storm again in 2 days

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quasi-zonal upper level flow will continue into late this week,
then become more amplified as a mid level shortwave trough moves
E from Great Lakes into SE Canada for the first half of this
weekend, followed by a longer wavelength trough for early next
week.

At the surface, high pressure will be sliding offshore Thursday
into Thursday night. For Thursday night, multiple models are
conveying weak low pressure passing southeast of Long Island
,
with increasing easterly flow. Sided with a cooler solution
regarding temperatures Thursday. Kept weather forecast dry but
there are some model indications of some light drizzle across
Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut Thursday night.

Higher chances of showers arrive Friday into Friday night when
the local region will be in between a weak low offshore New
England and a approaching warm front to the southwest. This will
be in advance of a parent low pressure system moving slowly
through the Great Lakes.

As the parent low lifts northward Saturday farther up into
Southeast Canada
, the warm front will weaken. Then an
associated cold front will slowly approach for Sunday into
Monday as the low slowly moves eastward across SE Canada.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms are in place for much of
the weekend as the front stalls out. There is uncertainty on
timing, and forcing mechanisms look weak, but just enough low
level instability is shown to keep the mention of thunder.

Potentially more widespread showers are possible early next
week, mainly Monday into Monday night, as a a wave of low
pressure travels along the stalled frontal boundary. ECMWF is
stronger and GFS is weaker with this feature
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234070 · Replies: · Views: 46,510

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 8 2017, 09:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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As if this August wasnt incredible already it looks to continue without any 90s or heat waves north of Virginia. I dont even think any upper 80s either. Lots of dry dew days coming up too.

EuroEPS12zcontrol showing 540/546 height line dropping south to southern Ontario and Quebec hr 204-258. Nuts.
850mb temps drop to single digits August 18-21 entire Northeast north of Maryland/Philly. Nuts.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234069 · Replies: · Views: 46,510

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 8 2017, 08:27 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 7 2017, 12:34 PM) *
Very encouraging for winter lovers!


Yeah, seems like Ben just wants to keep encouraging. Lol.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/894871077301530624

Attached Image


https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/895084472915206144

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234067 · Replies: · Views: 86,943

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 8 2017, 04:42 PM


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QUOTE(scooz @ Aug 8 2017, 05:35 PM) *
Interaction like it will kick it back into the Atlantic or interaction like some sort of attempted phase? Is there any blocking evident on any of these runs? I know way too far out but just seeing whats on the table as of right now.


As far as blocking I havent checked any 500mb maps in North Atlantic or the current state of NAO but here are all the model projections.

Im not 100% why Alan has East and West NAO. I assume western North Atlantic blocking and eastern?

Anyway.. heres a look at GFS, Canadian, Euro Ensembles and GFS op.

West NAO. Looks like the west dips toeards negative for the time period except with the GFS. Maybe thats why its not showing the storm?

Attached Image

East NAO

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2234062 · Replies: · Views: 10,884

NorEaster07
Posted on: Aug 8 2017, 04:08 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 8 2017, 04:12 PM) *
Euro flirts with the notion of continental trough interaction. Hard to tell from free site stuff, but sure looks like it will try to, at least, shake hands.


Just checked the 500mb Vort with AccuPro and looks like it does. Bit too late but definitely interacts hour 192. Separate at 186.

No rains from the system north of SC other than the front that moves across the seaboard "before" the Cyclone.


Here's the 850mb temps and MSLP at 192. warm core 18-24C at 5000' around the center.

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