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> Jan 25-26 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] Forecast
NYCSuburbs
post Jan 12 2011, 01:06 PM
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The thread I opened for 12/26-27 turned into one of the biggest snowstorms in the NYC area on record, the thread I opened for Jan 11-12 turned into a huge New England blizzard, hopefully my luck works here again laugh.gif

The GFS has been consistently showing some type of a storm around this time frame, each time associated with arctic air to its NW. There's a large range in the teleconnections for the AO, but the general idea is there for a neutral NAO, negative AO and a slightly positive PNA.

00z and 06z GFS for this time frame:

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Ramabdel12
post Jan 12 2011, 01:20 PM
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Time to forecast and cross fingers!
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NorEaster07
post Jan 12 2011, 01:28 PM
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Yes, you have been on a roll for sure...

To some maybe unlucky...but to most including me I would say your a lucky charm. Send me a picture so I can photoshop you on the box too. biggrin.gif
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mac24312
post Jan 12 2011, 01:38 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 12 2011, 01:28 PM) *
Yes, you have been on a roll for sure...

To some maybe unlucky...but to most including me I would say your a lucky charm. Send me a picture so I can photoshop you on the box too. biggrin.gif


I am in SW VA but I am praying we see a really large Snow Storm SOON!! sad.gif

This post has been edited by mac24312: Jan 12 2011, 01:38 PM
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mac24312
post Jan 12 2011, 01:39 PM
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QUOTE(mac24312 @ Jan 12 2011, 01:38 PM) *
I am in SW VA but I am praying we see a really large Snow Storm SOON!! sad.gif



PLEASE?? wink.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 12 2011, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(mac24312 @ Jan 12 2011, 01:38 PM) *
I am in SW VA but I am praying we see a really large Snow Storm SOON!! sad.gif



QUOTE(mac24312 @ Jan 12 2011, 01:39 PM) *
PLEASE?? wink.gif

I am right here with ya guys, maybe if we all 3 keep our fingers crossed (we can luck out) and get our much needed SNOW tongue.gif
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Snow Baby Snow
post Jan 12 2011, 01:56 PM
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According to the GFS temps really dive after this this system pushes through. However, snow cover down south and up to our north may suppress surface temps for a while. The arctic air mass building in central Canada during this time also appears to be verrry frigid. The southern MA needs the outbreak to occur a hair sooner than what we're seeing atm.
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Weatherjunkie
post Jan 12 2011, 02:12 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 12 2011, 01:06 PM) *
The GFS has been consistently showing some type of a storm around this time frame, each time associated with arctic air to its NW. There's a large range in the teleconnections for the AO, but the general idea is there for a neutral NAO, negative AO and a slightly positive PNA.


You're an early WOTY candidate. If you post 10+ severe weather threats in the summer I think we should just give you the title by September.

This is the time frame where we would be looking for warmer storms FWIW.


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LUCC
post Jan 12 2011, 02:51 PM
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Too bad you didn't create the Jan. 16th storm thread. biggrin.gif


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Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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NorEaster07
post Jan 12 2011, 03:31 PM
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Here's the GFS 12z Loop.. Click the link..image wont work.. Watch that fridgid air filter down after the 21st!! Crazy...But can someone point out the storm in question..I dont see it yet..Maybe its just the 12z run?

http://s1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd439/...Loop1-12-11.mp4



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jan 12 2011, 04:15 PM
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JrNOVAMet
post Jan 12 2011, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jan 12 2011, 01:42 PM) *
I am right here with ya guys, maybe if we all 3 keep our fingers crossed (we can luck out) and get our much needed SNOW tongue.gif


Make that 4 sets of fingers crossed. Do I hear 5? tongue.gif
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SnowMan11
post Jan 12 2011, 11:42 PM
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GFS has a clipper


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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2011, 08:11 AM
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Henry is catching on. wink.gif

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Here's an interesting observations... We have a blizzard (dec26), it warms up (jan 1) and rains, we have a blizzard ( Jan 12), it warms up and rains (jan 18), we have a ________?


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Delmarva Gal
post Jan 13 2011, 09:59 AM
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QUOTE(JrNOVAMet @ Jan 12 2011, 09:30 PM) *
Make that 4 sets of fingers crossed. Do I hear 5? tongue.gif


5 sets (fingers, toes, eyes, legs, arms whatever!) do we hear 6? tongue.gif


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ranaseagoddess
post Jan 13 2011, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(Delmarva Gal @ Jan 13 2011, 09:59 AM) *
5 sets (fingers, toes, eyes, legs, arms whatever!) do we hear 6? tongue.gif


Sixth set here! Count me IN (and I'll cross anything I need to in order to get a real snowstorm)!!!

This post has been edited by ranaseagoddess: Jan 13 2011, 10:14 AM
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Stormlogger
post Jan 13 2011, 10:18 AM
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QUOTE(Delmarva Gal @ Jan 13 2011, 09:59 AM) *
5 sets (fingers, toes, eyes, legs, arms whatever!) do we hear 6? tongue.gif


Seven fingers crossed and counting!!! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Stormlogger: Jan 13 2011, 10:19 AM
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mac24312
post Jan 13 2011, 10:29 AM
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QUOTE(Stormlogger @ Jan 13 2011, 10:18 AM) *
Seven fingers crossed and counting!!! laugh.gif


LOL!! laugh.gif

My 6 year old makes 8!! wink.gif
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Trogdor
post Jan 13 2011, 11:51 AM
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GFS still shows a storm. Not a bad placement this far out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_360m.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 13 2011, 12:38 PM
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QUOTE(Trogdor @ Jan 13 2011, 11:51 AM) *
GFS still shows a storm. Not a bad placement this far out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_pcp_360m.gif

Agreed, so just as long as the storm remains on the models in some form or fashion.
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Joshua Neyhart
post Jan 13 2011, 12:52 PM
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This could be interesting....
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