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> White Christmas Chances, Place Your Bets
bigmt
post Dec 16 2014, 02:14 PM
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Brett - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...cities/39119156

QUOTE
Based on feedback from previous years I have decided to post my probabilities for a white Christmas in selected cities across Canada.

I will try to update these numbers on a daily basis between now and the big day.

These probabilities are based on climatology, current snow cover or lack of, expected temperature pattern up to the holiday and potential for future snowfall.

Probability of having 2 cm or more of snow on the ground on Christmas day (as of Dec 16th)

Vancouver, BC 10%

Kelowna, BC 40%

Edmonton, AB 75%

Calgary, AB 50%

Saskatoon, Sask 85%

Regina, Sask 65%

Winnipeg, Man 60%

Thunder Bay, Ont 80%

North Bay, Ont 90%

Sault Ste. Marie, Ont 95%

Windsor, Ont 40%

London, Ont 65%

Toronto, Ont 60%

St. Catharines, Ont 65%

Kingston, Ont 75%

Barrie, Ont 90%

Ottawa, Ont 85%

Montreal, Que 80%

Quebec City, Que 95%

Saint John, NB 65%

Fredericton, NB 75%

Charlottetown, PEI 60%

Halifax, NS 55%

St. John's, NL 25%
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bigmt
post Dec 16 2014, 02:16 PM
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I'll make up my own list as soon as possible.
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 16 2014, 02:40 PM
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This is currently my guess. It's based on two factors;
1) The current warm up and rain wiping out a lot of areas of their snow,
2) No further storms on the horizon until Christmas.

There is the possibility of the Christmas Eve and Christmas day storm that could change everything, but currently there is such a wide spread in the models, its hard to really bank on anything. It would be a Christmas miracle if it did happen wink.gif
Attached File  White_Christmas_2014.jpg ( 141.66K ) Number of downloads: 2
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MrMusic
post Dec 16 2014, 02:40 PM
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For Hamilton I'm going with this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s



--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 19 2014, 11:10 AM
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I have updated my projections for a snow on the ground at Christmas. In a rare weather flip, most of SW and LES areas have a very solid chance of a white Christmas, from back end system snows and LES (the arrows on my map should be pointed in a more southerly direction, but the idea is LES of those two lakes will impact the area), while areas east of the GTA will likely loose all their snow by Christmas morning.

I have given the Ottawa valley a small 10% chance that they hold on to a very small amount of snow pack if the high amounts of rain can skip over this area, but currently my feeling is this is a very small chance and this area will likely turn solid green as well.

Attached File  update_2014_white_christmas.jpg ( 153.95K ) Number of downloads: 3
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newfiebrit
post Dec 19 2014, 11:20 AM
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I would say we have a 0% chance now with basically high pressure in charge next week, think the whole island was currently green though some parts are in line for a good dose of snow today, mainly right out west and the northern peninsula, they should hang on to that snow. For most of the island...a very English (green) christmas.

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Dec 19 2014, 11:26 AM
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shane o mac
post Dec 19 2014, 02:24 PM
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0 chance here for a white xmas lol
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Lake effect
post Dec 19 2014, 08:55 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Dec 19 2014, 11:10 AM) *
I have updated my projections for a snow on the ground at Christmas. In a rare weather flip, most of SW and LES areas have a very solid chance of a white Christmas, from back end system snows and LES (the arrows on my map should be pointed in a more southerly direction, but the idea is LES of those two lakes will impact the area), while areas east of the GTA will likely loose all their snow by Christmas morning.

I have given the Ottawa valley a small 10% chance that they hold on to a very small amount of snow pack if the high amounts of rain can skip over this area, but currently my feeling is this is a very small chance and this area will likely turn solid green as well.

Attached File  update_2014_white_christmas.jpg ( 153.95K ) Number of downloads: 3


I think if the models keep their current track you are right...it may not be a Christmas morning thing, but the whole area should get a blast at some point during the day, and some parts could get a foot. Of course, if it becomes more Westerly, it all changes again, and even Ottawa could get flurries from a big band with the winds being strong.
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MrMusic
post Dec 19 2014, 11:39 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Dec 19 2014, 08:55 PM) *
I think if the models keep their current track you are right...it may not be a Christmas morning thing, but the whole area should get a blast at some point during the day, and some parts could get a foot. Of course, if it becomes more Westerly, it all changes again, and even Ottawa could get flurries from a big band with the winds being strong.


I don't count it as a white christmas unless there's at least 5cm on the ground, enough to cover everything.
A quick blast of flurries after 2 days of rain is stupid.

I'll give Hamilton about a 3% chance at this point (that one run of the Euro from earlier is my last sliver of hope. haha)



--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowbelt
post Dec 20 2014, 12:40 AM
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I'm going to say 90% for my area . We got 40 cm during that Georgian Bay fed storm last week and still have 10 - 20 cm of hard pack on the ground . Throw in a bit of LES from this coming storm and we should be good ! It will take a lot of rain and warm temps to melt what we have up here .
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Cre47
post Dec 20 2014, 02:20 AM
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Accuweather's map shows 75% or more chances as of December 19. Again we have about 15 cm on the ground and there will be a little bit of snow on the 23rd before we start to see the warm-up. But again two factors will be crucial. If the storm slows down enough so that the +5 or more and the heavier precip gets in as late as possible on the 24th and whether the east wind will play a factor in slowing down the warmth.

Again will wait till Monday before setting an exact chance.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...t-2014/39075750

This post has been edited by Cre47: Dec 20 2014, 02:21 AM
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newfiebrit
post Dec 20 2014, 07:49 AM
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At least it looks wintry here till boxing day, highs of around zero by day to a bit below by night, no major chill and largely sunny but still cud be worse, had a dusting overnight, possibly a few more flurries in the week, doesnt look enough to give any real coating though you never know still squeek out a white one it will be cold enough. Still looks unlikely though.
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PGM
post Dec 20 2014, 10:18 AM
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My guesses of a white Christmas (2+cm on the ground) based off the current forecasts and trends.

Vancouver, BC > Nearly impossible

Kelowna, BC > Unlikely

Edmonton, AB > Nearly certain

Calgary, AB > Unlikely

Saskatoon, Sask > Probable

Regina, Sask > Probable

Winnipeg, Man > Probable

Thunder Bay, Ont > Nearly certain

North Bay, Ont > Probable

Sault Ste. Marie, Ont > Probable

Windsor, Ont > Possible (some uncertainty exists at this time)

London, Ont > Possible (some uncertainty exists at this time)

Toronto, Ont > Unlikely

St. Catharines, Ont > Unlikely

Kingston, Ont > Unlikely

Barrie, Ont > Possible (some uncertainty exists at this time)

Ottawa, Ont > Possible (some uncertainty exists at this time)

Montreal, Que > Unlikely

Quebec City, Que > Probable

Saint John, NB > Unlikely

Fredericton, NB > Unlikely

Charlottetown, PEI > Unlikely

Halifax, NS > Unlikely

St. John's, NL > Nearly impossible


--------------------
Winter 2017-18 stats

First freeze (below 0*C): November 8th
Coldest temperature: -7.7*C (November 10th)
Days entirely below freezing: 1

First flakes: October 31st
First accumulating snowfall: November 10th
Biggest snowfall: 4cm (November 10th)
Seasonal total: 4cm
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bigmt
post Dec 20 2014, 05:27 PM
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Updated from Brett - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...update/39331607

QUOTE
Probability of having 2 cm or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day (as of Dec. 18)

Vancouver, BC 5%

Kelowna, BC 40%

Prince George, BC 60%

Edmonton, AB 80%

Calgary, AB 40%

Saskatoon, Sask 90%

Regina, Sask 75%

Winnipeg, Man 80%

Thunder Bay, Ont 95%

North Bay, Ont 85%

Sault Ste. Marie, Ont 95%

Windsor, Ont 35%

London, Ont 40%

Toronto, Ont 30%

St. Catharines, Ont 50%

Peterborough, Ont 35%

Kingston, Ont 30%

Barrie, Ont 65%

Ottawa, Ont 45%

Montreal, Que 50%

Quebec City, Que 70%

Saint John, NB 10%

Fredericton, NB 60% ( I think there will be some snow cover still left after the rainstorm)

Charlottetown, PEI 15%

Halifax, NS 0%

St. John's, NL 10%
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bigmt
post Dec 22 2014, 08:10 AM
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TWN - http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/arti...w-report/42279/

Attached File  twnfccxk.png ( 18.42K ) Number of downloads: 1
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travis3000
post Dec 22 2014, 09:01 AM
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My bets are nobody in the GTA gets a white Christmas. Sorry to say it's just not going to happen. Even with 10cm of snow on the ground I'm worried about my own area. With temps projected to hit 5-6C tomorrow with rain, and 10C on Wednesday with even more rain... chances are we will be down to green grass by Christmas morning.

However, in Alliston since the year 2000 we have only had 6 white Christmas' , meaning that this will be the 9th green Christmas out of the last 15 should our snow melt.

The 6AM NAM model shows over 50mm of rain across Toronto into Christmas Day, while the GFS shows much less moisture.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Dec 22 2014, 09:14 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 16cm (8cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Dec 22 2014, 05:50 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Dec 22 2014, 09:01 AM) *
My bets are nobody in the GTA gets a white Christmas. Sorry to say it's just not going to happen. Even with 10cm of snow on the ground I'm worried about my own area. With temps projected to hit 5-6C tomorrow with rain, and 10C on Wednesday with even more rain... chances are we will be down to green grass by Christmas morning.

However, in Alliston since the year 2000 we have only had 6 white Christmas' , meaning that this will be the 9th green Christmas out of the last 15 should our snow melt.

The 6AM NAM model shows over 50mm of rain across Toronto into Christmas Day, while the GFS shows much less moisture.


You have 10cm on the ground?? From what?
Was there a lake event up there recently? I didn't think it was cold enough anywhere lately for snow.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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bwfan
post Dec 22 2014, 06:26 PM
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A higher chance of snow for Kelowna (40%), opposed to London (20%). Pathetic....
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travis3000
post Dec 22 2014, 11:19 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Dec 22 2014, 05:50 PM) *
You have 10cm on the ground?? From what?
Was there a lake event up there recently? I didn't think it was cold enough anywhere lately for snow.


Alliston received 45cm of snow from the Dec 11th storm. It takes a lot to melt that. Most of South Simcoe County is still all white with 5-15cm of snow on the ground. Also, our mild days haven't been that mild. A lot of 1-2C temps. Not warm enough to melt it.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 16cm (8cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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JJ Snowlover
post Dec 23 2014, 09:02 AM
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One last update, as I am sure most of you know this already....

I hope everyone has a great Christmas with family and friends despite the lack of snow. Here's to new storms in 2015 tongue.gif

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