Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

60 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Hurricane Jose, 9/17 5PM EDT CAT 1 - 90 MPH - 967mb - Movement: N @ 9mph
Phased Vort
post Sep 4 2017, 08:33 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,261
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





A new invest for us to track.

94L;

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2017, LO, O, 2017083112, 9999999999, , 025, , , 2, METWATCH, , AL942017



--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 4 2017, 12:01 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,261
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





12Z GFS:

This invest looks to be Jose.

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image



--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
shane o mac
post Sep 4 2017, 12:11 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,285
Joined: 19-August 09
From: Nova Scotia Cape Breton
Member No.: 18,972





Ill be keeping a eye out on this one to i think we have a better chance giving the pattern the forecast to be in in this time period alot can change however but need something to keep mind off things !
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Its_Miller_A_Tim...
post Sep 4 2017, 12:11 PM
Post #4




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 189
Joined: 12-December 13
Member No.: 28,921





GFS says this storm stalls in the Atlantic while Irma does damage, then tracks up the east coast. It's way out, but worth watching.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PSUweatherman
post Sep 4 2017, 12:13 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,226
Joined: 9-December 09
From: Hatfield, PA
Member No.: 20,122





Another one
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stilko4
post Sep 4 2017, 04:45 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,722
Joined: 9-January 08
Member No.: 12,166





QUOTE(PSUweatherman @ Sep 4 2017, 01:13 PM) *
Another one

It's fun when blizzards and snowstorms are back to back....not damaging hurricanes


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 4 2017, 07:47 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,261
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468







--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Sep 5 2017, 01:18 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,229
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





WTF

Jose right on Irma's heels, this would be horrific for the virgin islands

Attached Image


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
joseph507123
post Sep 5 2017, 10:03 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 506
Joined: 20-January 12
From: South Central Minnesota
Member No.: 26,362





Now a Tropical Storm

QUOTE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 051454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...10TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 39.1W
ABOUT 1505 MI...2420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the future progress
of Jose.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 39.1 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a
movement toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly faster
rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Jose
could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


--------------------
2017-2018 Winter

Winter Weather Advisories: 1

Winter Storm Warnings: 0

Blizzard Warnings: 0

Windchill Warnings: 0

Largest snowfall: 2.75''

Seasonal snowfall: 3.75''

Coldest temperature: 10F

Coldest windchill: -4F
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Sep 5 2017, 11:46 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,130
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





umm Jose on the 0z GFS:


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Sep 5 2017, 11:48 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,130
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Stays offshore though, unless for the far north like Nova Scotia maybe.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

Wind Advisory: 10/24
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23, 7/1, 7/13, 7/20, 8/12, 8/18, 8/22, 9/5
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 8/5, 8/12, 8/18, 8/19, 8/22, 9/5
Tornado Warning: 7/13
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19, 7/14, 7/23-24, 7/28-29(Cancelled), 8/18
Flash Flood Warning: 7/13, 7/23-24, 7/28-29, 8/18, 9/5
Pea Size Hail: 2/25, 9/5

90 Degree Days: 17 / Heat Waves: 3

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jck221
post Sep 5 2017, 11:54 PM
Post #12




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 29
Joined: 9-March 14
From: New York, NY
Member No.: 29,371





Jose looking dangerous at 240 hr out on the 00z:

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rdl89
post Sep 6 2017, 12:01 AM
Post #13




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 69
Joined: 19-December 13
From: Seymour, Indiana
Member No.: 28,972





QUOTE(jck221 @ Sep 5 2017, 11:54 PM) *
Jose looking dangerous at 240 hr out on the 00z:

Attached Image



Following right behind Irma. I sure hope this doesn't happen.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
shane o mac
post Sep 6 2017, 10:31 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,285
Joined: 19-August 09
From: Nova Scotia Cape Breton
Member No.: 18,972





This is going to be a interesting week ahead , basically Jose is waiting for her big sister to move out and then Jose looks to hook with a trof and bring it close to the coast where is the question
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Sep 6 2017, 01:59 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,662
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





I've seen Jose do loops, track out to sea, stall....

Not as critical to track yet. But keep an eye on it.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 02:21 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,261
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 6 2017, 01:59 PM) *
I've seen Jose do loops, track out to sea, stall....

Not as critical to track yet. But keep an eye on it.



Agreed. Monitoring it is important.

And, the more west Irma goes, the more west Jose goes.

That indirect interaction is critical for the forecast for the same islands Irma is slamming.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 02:27 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,261
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





Jose becomes a hurricane as per this info below.

JOSE, AL, L, , , , , 12, 2017, HU, S, 2017083112, 9999999999, , 025, , , 3, WARNING, 2, AL122017

Should be updated on the NHC site soon.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stilko4
post Sep 6 2017, 03:45 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,722
Joined: 9-January 08
Member No.: 12,166





Now a hurricane as of 5pm update


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ontariolightning
post Sep 6 2017, 03:56 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 580
Joined: 6-March 08
Member No.: 14,219





This is a hurricane season for the record books.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Phased Vort
post Sep 6 2017, 04:30 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 19,261
Joined: 13-January 08
From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





Jose ascends.

QUOTE
000
WTNT42 KNHC 062038
TCDAT2

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

Jose has continued to become better organized. Banding convection
has become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level
outflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the
presence of Hurricane Irma to the west. An eye-like dimple has
occasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon.
The initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB. There is no reason to believe that
the recent intensification trend will end soon. In fact, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of
intensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h. My forecast is
just shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by
the HWRF for the next 36 h. After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast
weakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model
consensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the
forecast.

A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery
indicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously
estimated. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Due to the
northward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been
adjusted in that direction for the first 48 h. However, the
reasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should
continue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily
by the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should
cause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more
latitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting
that this turn may occur a little later than previously expected,
and have shifted westward a little bit. The new NHC forecast at 96
and 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is about a degree west of the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 13.9N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.1N 51.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.8N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 16.4N 56.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 18.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 63.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

60 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd November 2017 - 02:35 AM