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> Jan 13-15th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 06:36 PM
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Let's take a stab here

Soi delta has a large drop for this period




Bsr suggests a potent 523 ULL with retro flow on east coast


Bsr valid 12z on 12th shows a close phase, marked in black lines




I averaged outvthe harmonics and rrwt charts all point to ~57 day smoothed oscillation

We go back to nov 16th



Drop the polar night winds down since it's reconfigured further south since nov and we look good. Is that a possible ULL around 5050 ohmy.gif

Ear has lowered heights over the east coast with a large height rise/blocking during this period, could either be a signal or often times messes with the ear. Enough organic support to fire this up still though.


This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 10 2018, 09:21 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 06:37 PM
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inally I'll post some statistical support on the eps showing +pna
Eps for 12-14th




Eps height anom for the 12th


Euro 010412z




Displaying lowering heights heading leeward towards the coast into the heigh rises, a real strong northern Atlantic ridge


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 06:43 PM
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Esrl shows a very nice transitional period between these dates with a highly +pna




I like this period for another possible coastal in some way

Most likely a miller AB hybrid as we have been seeing quite often this year

Enjoy and fight nice. smile.gif



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Undertakerson
post Jan 4 2018, 06:48 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 06:37 PM) *
inally I'll post some statistical support on the eps showing +pna
Eps for 12-14th




Eps height anom for the 12th


Euro 010412z




Displaying lowering heights heading leeward towards the coast into the heigh rises, a real strong northern Atlantic ridge

I'm reluctant but ready. Almost "too good" set up out west in the LR Op Euro and it's been bad in some set ups recently.

However, given the OFM support I'm inclined to lean towards "favorable" on this time period. One would speculate that 50/50 MUST be present to assist downstream but it's not a requirement, as recent example(s) have demonstrated

After all, as someone recently said, "it's not magic" --- to which I say, "true, but it is (tongue in cheek) sorcery"





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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 07:20 PM
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Extrapolating h300 on the hovmoller map one can see that a upper level wave (rrwt) looks to lower heights for 1/12-14th at 80-70degrees longitude



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 4 2018, 08:34 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 07:24 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 4 2018, 06:48 PM) *
I'm reluctant but ready. Almost "too good" set up out west in the LR Op Euro and it's been bad in some set ups recently.

However, given the OFM support I'm inclined to lean towards "favorable" on this time period. One would speculate that 50/50 MUST be present to assist downstream but it's not a requirement, as recent example(s) have demonstrated

After all, as someone recently said, "it's not magic" --- to which I say, "true, but it is (tongue in cheek) sorcery"


Right with you UTS

It certainly has ofm backing and the teles are transitional

I will keep thread updated best as I can for better or worse smile.gif

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 4 2018, 07:25 PM


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 4 2018, 07:25 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 06:36 PM) *
Let's take a stab here

Soi delta has a large drop for this period


Bsr suggests a potent 523 ULL with retro flow on east coast


Bsr valid 12z on 12th shows a close phase, marked in black lines


I averaged outvthe harmonics and rrwt charts all point to ~57 day smoothed oscillation

We go back to nov 16th



Drop the polar night winds down since it's reconfigured further south since mob and we look good. Is that a possible ULL around 5050 ohmy.gif

Ear has lowered heights over the east coast with a large height rise/blocking during this period, could either be a signal or often times messes with the ear. Enough organic support to fire this up still though.
[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2018010300/ecmwf-ens_z500a_fe_1.png[


Poc, you amaze me brother. Your real name is probably Paul Kocin and you're disguising yourself as a Pocono mtn inhabitant. Very nice and detailed post, I just wish I could decipher most of it because it's too adavanced for me. However....I think I get the idea that it looks favorable for another type of hybrid system?!?

I stole this image from the Midwest thread. Looks like some attempt at an up the apps transfer to the coast idea of some sort.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 4 2018, 07:25 PM) *
Poc, you amaze me brother. Your real name is probably Paul Kocin and you're disguising yourself as a Pocono mtn inhabitant. Very nice and detailed post, I just wish I could decipher most of it because it's too adavanced for me. However....I think I get the idea that it looks favorable for another type of hybrid system?!?

I stole this image from the Midwest thread. Looks like some attempt at an up the apps transfer to the coast idea of some sort.


You're silly lol pard

Thanks for the kind words

Honestly this might be more of 11-13th thing but I didn't want to piggy back clappers thread. Besides we would want wave spacing so that we can possibly get a true positively oriented western ridge and 5050 Ip

I agree that this could be an AB hybrid. Very common theme this winter so far.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 4 2018, 08:37 PM


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 4 2018, 07:36 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 07:33 PM) *
You're silly lol pard

Thanks for the kind words

Honestly this might be more of 11-13th thing but I didn't want to piggy back clappers thread. Besides we would want wave spacing so that we can possibly get a true western ridge and 5050 ULL


What's the Miller AB hybrid you mentioned ??
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 07:43 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 4 2018, 07:36 PM) *
What's the Miller AB hybrid you mentioned ??


Miller A storm originate from the southern stream and eject out of the Gom usually

A miller b is a latitude dependent nothern stream dominant system that transfers to coast

When there is energy in both places handshaking a bit later and you have two mslp's with seperate precip usually until they assimilate into one entity.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 4 2018, 08:39 PM


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stretchct
post Jan 4 2018, 08:43 PM
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Here we go! My parents asked me the weather for the 12th. I look it up on the GFS. First thought that comes into my head- we gotta jumper.

Love the cold front passing, the 1042 high. Its either gonna jump the coast or be some good CAD snow in my area. The type that thumps snow, then stops and warms.

Of course this is just based on the pic above....


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 4 2018, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 4 2018, 08:43 PM) *
Here we go! My parents asked me the weather for the 12th. I look it up on the GFS. First thought that comes into my head- we gotta jumper.

Love the cold front passing, the 1042 high. Its either gonna jump the coast or be some good CAD snow in my area. The type that thumps snow, then stops and warms.

Of course this is just based on the pic above....

Euro says there's something there but nothing to get worked up about.
Attached Image


no cold front passage

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jan 4 2018, 08:48 PM


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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USCG AST
post Jan 4 2018, 08:57 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 06:36 PM) *
Let's take a stab here

Soi delta has a large drop for this period


Bsr suggests a potent 523 ULL with retro flow on east coast


Bsr valid 12z on 12th shows a close phase, marked in black lines


I averaged outvthe harmonics and rrwt charts all point to ~57 day smoothed oscillation

We go back to nov 16th



Drop the polar night winds down since it's reconfigured further south since nov and we look good. Is that a possible ULL around 5050 ohmy.gif

Ear has lowered heights over the east coast with a large height rise/blocking during this period, could either be a signal or often times messes with the ear. Enough organic support to fire this up still though.
What is this sorcery? rolleyes.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 09:08 PM
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12z dwd icon displaying a tucked in coastal



Tad too warm this run but nice to see idea on icon wiith a 7 day lead


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 09:33 PM
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Even the aussies have it.

It's a slow transfer to here



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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 09:37 PM
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18z nav very comparable to the gfs



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ctdryslot
post Jan 4 2018, 09:53 PM
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I just said after todayís storm that it will be good for me to be out of the forum for a little time so I can reconnect with my family and job. The plow guy hasnít even come yet, and here I am. sad.gif
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Solstice
post Jan 4 2018, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Jan 4 2018, 09:53 PM) *
I just said after todayís storm that it will be good for me to be out of the forum for a little time so I can reconnect with my family and job. The plow guy hasnít even come yet, and here I am. sad.gif


Family? Job? All replaceable with SnobalTM


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Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.
01/17 - Winter Storm - 1.0" Snowfall, 1.0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/19 Night - 0.5" to trace snowpack remains. Hard ice deposits remain in certain areas.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 10:04 PM
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QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Jan 4 2018, 09:53 PM) *
I just said after todayís storm that it will be good for me to be out of the forum for a little time so I can reconnect with my family and job. The plow guy hasnít even come yet, and here I am. sad.gif


Me too, me too sad.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 10:15 PM
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Just noticed 12z eps has a small sutface lp over the bm



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 4 2018, 10:18 PM


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