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> Jan 13-15th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 10:38 PM
Post #21




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Mjo will be passing through phase 2 and 3 during this timeframe

Ecmfw ens



Gfs ens bias corrected




Check out the composites for 2 into 3

Jfm temps


Below normal

significance



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 4 2018, 10:39 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 10:48 PM
Post #22




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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 10:38 PM) *
Mjo will be passing through phase 2 and 3 during this timeframe

Ecmfw ens



Gfs ens bias corrected


Check out the composites for 2 into 3

Jfm temps


Below normal

significance



Significancece of precip looks high

I iused JFM

If you feel like going DJF

Here is linku: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...es/Temperature/

Here is mjo by month and enso stage:
http://meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Be careful with the singular month maps. They can be skewed and we're wrong in my last experience.

Cheers

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 4 2018, 10:50 PM


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telejunkie
post Jan 4 2018, 10:48 PM
Post #23




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Work that magic Poc...looking at EPS signal, it looks beautiful at 192, then just seems to stall and deamplify. Think 216 & 240 should be more impressive given that look at 192.

ATM, the MJO looks to refire and head toward phase 3 according GEFS....
Attached Image


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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telejunkie
post Jan 4 2018, 10:50 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 10:38 PM) *
Mjo will be passing through phase 2 and 3 during this timeframe

laugh.gif i'll let myself out the backdoor now...spent too much time looking at the multivariate PNA to try to find connection between +PNA and phase 3 MJO wink.gif

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jan 4 2018, 10:51 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:06 PM
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00z pregame



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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:07 PM
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So tired might pass out lol


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:07 PM
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JDClapper
post Jan 4 2018, 11:09 PM
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CMC with 2 over the top... pre-game

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:12 PM
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JDClapper
post Jan 4 2018, 11:15 PM
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Not gonna be amazeballs this run .. but nice HP to the NW .. see where and how strong that ends up in future runs.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:18 PM
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JDClapper
post Jan 4 2018, 11:18 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 11:18 PM) *


Vort on the backside ... wonder if we can make something of that here in the next few frames...

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:21 PM
Post #33




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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:25 PM
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Little vort rushing is the back door



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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:28 PM
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JDClapper
post Jan 4 2018, 11:28 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 11:25 PM) *
Little vort rushing is the back door



Thinking out loud.. lots of pieces running amok .. initial thoughts, some of this is phantom, perhaps the 1/11 storm.. things may consolidate in the end for one event ..

Just thoughts.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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JDClapper
post Jan 4 2018, 11:30 PM
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Bomb iceclone


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:30 PM
Post #38




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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:31 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jan 4 2018, 11:30 PM) *
Bomb iceclone


Attached Image


Gonna transfer?


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JDClapper
post Jan 4 2018, 11:33 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 11:31 PM) *
Gonna transfer?


Nice run .. almost as prophesied. Will be fun to watch evolve.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
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