 Jan 13-15th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST |
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 Jan 4 2018, 11:34 PM
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#41
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494  |
 Now I can fall asleep, thanks play by play -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 4 2018, 11:37 PM
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#42
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 Need more confluence over the top -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 4 2018, 11:38 PM
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#43
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
Night
-------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 4 2018, 11:49 PM
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#44
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,052 Joined: 10-December 13 Member No.: 28,905 |
QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 11:37 PM)  Need more confluence over the top There's a good chance this corrects east with time. The PNA is forecast to go significantly positive during this time. Likewise, The AO forecast is all over the place for this time frame, but it has been correcting negative as of late. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif -------------------- "We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill
"Success is never final. Failure is never fatal. It's courage that counts." -Disputed Avatar in honor of my fallen brethren: Capt Zanetis Capt O'Keefe Master Sgt Raguso Tech Sgt Briggs |
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Jan 5 2018, 12:02 AM
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#45
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,797 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448 |
QUOTE(USCG AST @ Jan 4 2018, 11:49 PM) There's a good chance this corrects east with time. The PNA is forecast to go significantly positive during this time. Likewise, The AO forecast is all over the place for this time frame, but it has been correcting negative as of late. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif Should I mention Saturday the 13th is an Eagles home playoff game... -------------------- Winter 2017-18:
Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2 Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21 Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21 Flood Watch 2/10-11 High Wind Watch: 3/2-3 High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4 Accumulating Snowfall Dates: 12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2" 1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5" 2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7" 3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5" 4/2: 4" Total: 45.5" Average Snowfall: 32" 2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.) 2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.) 2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.) 2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.) 2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.) 2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.) 2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.) 2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.) |
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Jan 5 2018, 12:08 AM
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#46
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,973 Joined: 7-August 11 Member No.: 25,872 |
QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 5 2018, 12:02 AM) Should I mention Saturday the 13th is an Eagles home playoff game... Oh what a game that would be  That would be ironic if foles return to the playoffs starts with a snow storm. Eagles vs Lions a few years back comes to mind.
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Jan 5 2018, 12:13 AM
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#47
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,797 Joined: 13-January 08 From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.) Member No.: 12,448 |
QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Jan 5 2018, 12:08 AM) Oh what a game that would be That would be ironic if foles return to the playoffs starts with a snow storm. Eagles vs Lions a few years back comes to mind.Forgot to add Patriots are home that night as well. That game was only topped snow wise by that Buffalo game this year. -------------------- Winter 2017-18:
Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2 Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21 Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21 Flood Watch 2/10-11 High Wind Watch: 3/2-3 High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4 Accumulating Snowfall Dates: 12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2" 1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5" 2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7" 3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5" 4/2: 4" Total: 45.5" Average Snowfall: 32" 2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.) 2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.) 2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.) 2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.) 2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.) 2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.) 2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.) 2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.) |
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Jan 5 2018, 04:53 AM
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#48
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
00z Euro frames of interest
   
This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 04:54 AM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:13 AM
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#49
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
06z gfs
 A tad more separation from the bowling ball vort and the backend longwave Back is really digging down This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:14 AM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:16 AM
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#50
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
Front piece is out of the way which leaves room forcbackend to carve out a deep trof
Still need some cold though, maybe the longer more potent wave will allow some here 
This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:18 AM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:20 AM
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#51
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 Separation playing in our favor Gom spitting out aclow with cold fresh hp behind -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:22 AM
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#52
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 Almost a banana hp look -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:23 AM
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#53
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 Looking to make the jump to the coast This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:24 AM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:25 AM
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#54
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 1043 hp over the top -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:27 AM
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#55
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 O my heavy snow PA into Ny Clapper land getting a thump This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:28 AM -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:27 AM
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#56
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 |
Yeah - um, this is the worst of the two other scenarios I mentioned last night
The - candy??
This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 5 2018, 05:29 AM -------------------- |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:29 AM
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#57
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 Hugging coast now, Maine feeling it -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:30 AM
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#58
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2018, 05:27 AM) Yeah - um, this is the worst of the two other scenarios I mentioned last night
A lot of winter in this. Some I don't want yuck -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:30 AM
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#59
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 |
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Jan 5 2018, 05:33 AM
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#60
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 13,259 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950' Member No.: 20,494 |
 Last frame -------------------- Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/ |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 24th April 2018 - 03:56 PM |