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> Jan 13-15th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:34 PM
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Now I can fall asleep, thanks play by play


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:37 PM
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Need more confluence over the top


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 4 2018, 11:38 PM
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Night


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USCG AST
post Jan 4 2018, 11:49 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 4 2018, 11:37 PM) *


Need more confluence over the top

There's a good chance this corrects east with time. The PNA is forecast to go significantly positive during this time. Likewise, The AO forecast is all over the place for this time frame, but it has been correcting negative as of late.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif


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phillyfan
post Jan 5 2018, 12:02 AM
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Jan 4 2018, 11:49 PM) *
There's a good chance this corrects east with time. The PNA is forecast to go significantly positive during this time. Likewise, The AO forecast is all over the place for this time frame, but it has been correcting negative as of late.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif

Should I mention Saturday the 13th is an Eagles home playoff game...


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Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5 (-6.5 from avg.)
2015-2016: 41 (+9 from avg.)
2014-2015: 48 (+16 from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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shaulov4
post Jan 5 2018, 12:08 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 5 2018, 12:02 AM) *
Should I mention Saturday the 13th is an Eagles home playoff game...

Oh what a game that would be wink.gif That would be ironic if foles return to the playoffs starts with a snow storm. Eagles vs Lions a few years back comes to mind.
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phillyfan
post Jan 5 2018, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Jan 5 2018, 12:08 AM) *
Oh what a game that would be wink.gif That would be ironic if foles return to the playoffs starts with a snow storm. Eagles vs Lions a few years back comes to mind.

Forgot to add Patriots are home that night as well. That game was only topped snow wise by that Buffalo game this year.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5 (-6.5 from avg.)
2015-2016: 41 (+9 from avg.)
2014-2015: 48 (+16 from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 04:53 AM
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00z Euro frames of interest









This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 04:54 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:13 AM
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06z gfs



A tad more separation from the bowling ball vort and the backend longwave

Back is really digging down

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:14 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:16 AM
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Front piece is out of the way which leaves room forcbackend to carve out a deep trof

Still need some cold though, maybe the longer more potent wave will allow some here



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:18 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:20 AM
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Separation playing in our favor

Gom spitting out aclow with cold fresh hp behind


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:22 AM
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Almost a banana hp look


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:23 AM
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Looking to make the jump to the coast

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:24 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:25 AM
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1043 hp over the top


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:27 AM
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O my heavy snow PA into Ny

Clapper land getting a thump

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 5 2018, 05:28 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2018, 05:27 AM
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Yeah - um, this is the worst of the two other scenarios I mentioned last night

The - candy??


Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 5 2018, 05:29 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:29 AM
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Hugging coast now, Maine feeling it


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:30 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2018, 05:27 AM) *
Yeah - um, this is the worst of the two other scenarios I mentioned last night


Attached Image


A lot of winter in this. Some I don't want yuck


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Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2018, 05:30 AM
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Attached Image


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 5 2018, 05:33 AM
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Last frame



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