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> January 16-17 MidAtl/NE Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
avsguy01
post Jan 9 2018, 12:00 PM
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Interesting but so far away. I imagine if the perfect clipper phase can be pulled off and heavy snow banding sets up somewhere along the east coast, then maybe some areas experiencing the big warm up out ahead of this can get back into some action. Gonna wait to get through the warm up occurring this week and see how the next cold pattern sets in.
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saracenic arch
post Jan 9 2018, 01:58 PM
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GFS still showing a clipper trying to redevelop/Miller B along the coast around the 17th, with a lead disturbance trying to invoke a surface low along the stalled front offshore a little too soon to be captured. Interesting for sure. There will likely be a trough in a favorable position, but not sure if there's enough traffic downstream to jam up the flow and make it happen in time. Either way, this time period is definitely worth watching, especially considering that most of the snowpack from the early January blizzard will be gone by then.

12z, showing the clipper redeveloping. The lead wave/SLP is already gone, taking a pipeline of deep tropical moisture with it. If we can slow that down so that the front remains close by, we're totally in business.

This post has been edited by saracenic arch: Jan 9 2018, 02:12 PM
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Mafa
post Jan 9 2018, 02:02 PM
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Looks like the Euro shows a nice little over-running event for the Mid Atlantic. Unfortunately, I can't get the pic posted at work. Time will tell...
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paletitsnow63
post Jan 9 2018, 02:04 PM
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12Z Euro at H192. As mentioned an over-running event.

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NorEaster07
post Jan 9 2018, 03:25 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 9 2018, 02:04 PM) *
12Z Euro at H192. As mentioned an over-running event.


I usually just check the raw data when I want a quick summary of a run, looked good this afternoon. Thanks for posting the map.

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            12Z JAN09
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
TUE 00Z 16-JAN  -6.6   -11.9    1033      41      52    0.00     544     518    
TUE 06Z 16-JAN  -7.4   -10.0    1034      57      85    0.00     548     522    
TUE 12Z 16-JAN  -5.1    -9.5    1034      52      98    0.03     551     525    
TUE 18Z 16-JAN  -0.5    -8.4    1032      70      98    0.08     552     527    
WED 00Z 17-JAN  -2.0    -7.0    1031      85     100    0.01     553     529    
WED 06Z 17-JAN  -1.9    -6.1    1027      94      99    0.10     552     531    
WED 12Z 17-JAN  -1.1    -6.7    1025      96      98    0.20     549     529    
WED 18Z 17-JAN  -2.8    -9.7    1024      70      34    0.12     545     526    
THU 00Z 18-JAN  -8.8   -12.7    1026      71       4    0.00     543     523    
THU 06Z 18-JAN -11.3   -13.1    1026      78       4    0.00     541     521    
THU 12Z 18-JAN -14.1   -13.4    1029      80      24    0.00     541     520    
THU 18Z 18-JAN  -6.6   -13.5    1027      50      26    0.00     540     519
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Storms R us
post Jan 9 2018, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 9 2018, 02:04 PM) *
12Z Euro at H192. As mentioned an over-running event.



possible love for DCA and BWI besides others.
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 9 2018, 05:18 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 9 2018, 02:04 PM) *
12Z Euro at H192. As mentioned an over-running event.

I'd be more then happy with this scenario, especially coming off a run of rather MILD weather here in the Mid-Atl.
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Black05GSR
post Jan 9 2018, 11:55 PM
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Not a bad 00z run from the GFS. 13th-14th event is the purples and pinks in western PA/NY and the purples and pinks going up the east coast are from this event.



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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Storms R us
post Jan 10 2018, 06:01 AM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Jan 9 2018, 11:55 PM) *
Not a bad 00z run from the GFS. 13th-14th event is the purples and pinks in western PA/NY and the purples and pinks going up the east coast are from this event.




I saw on the world App that there is a possibility of snow for Sunday night and again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for Dover DE and the same thing was being shown for the BWI area Tuesday only I think.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Jan 10 2018, 06:07 AM
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avsguy01
post Jan 10 2018, 10:25 AM
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06Z GFS still showing clipper event for majority of Mid-Atlantic again.
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shane o mac
post Jan 10 2018, 01:12 PM
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I like the look for Maine/Eastern New England but of course models will go back and fourth in the incoming days ! .
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sheabird32
post Jan 10 2018, 02:15 PM
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12z GFS still showing the same storm, albeit a bit weaker...but it looks to be a slow mover and has remained in the same general vicinity for numerous runs now. Could be a nice one for the mid-atlantic if it comes together.
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 10 2018, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(sheabird32 @ Jan 10 2018, 02:15 PM) *
12z GFS still showing the same storm, albeit a bit weaker...but it looks to be a slow mover and has remained in the same general vicinity for numerous runs now. Could be a nice one for the mid-atlantic if it comes together.

Absolutely!
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SnowMan11
post Jan 10 2018, 05:08 PM
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Better ridge placement on the GFS at 129. Looks like a Miller B gearing up.


--------------------
Anthony
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stilko4
post Jan 10 2018, 05:27 PM
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Let's hope this pans out for a snow event for i95 east.


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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shaulov4
post Jan 10 2018, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jan 10 2018, 05:08 PM) *
Better ridge placement on the GFS at 129. Looks like a Miller B gearing up.

New England special.

The way I see it this can be a 3-6 incher from NYC-BOS

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Solstice
post Jan 10 2018, 08:13 PM
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This next 0z should be our first real look into model solutions. Crossed the 150 hour barrier & 0z run.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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snow wonder
post Jan 10 2018, 08:48 PM
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Mt Holly

Tuesday and Wednesday...Interesting...a seemingly weak separation
of short waves may end up being a a decent Alberta clipper
redeveloping along the Delmarva
and yield a light to moderate
snowfall event in parts of our area. Probably worth monitoring
if you have travel plans next Tuesday or Wednesday. I did raise
guidance POPS 10-20%. Impressive short wave. Confidence:
above average.

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stretchct
post Jan 10 2018, 09:09 PM
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Navgem rule?
18z
Attached Image

12z
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This post has been edited by stretchct: Jan 10 2018, 09:10 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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shaulov4
post Jan 10 2018, 11:59 PM
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Quick burst of 1-3 on this run we shall see...
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