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> January 16-17 MidAtl/NE Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
shaulov4
post Jan 11 2018, 12:01 AM
Post #41




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 10 2018, 09:09 PM) *
Navgem rule?
18z
[attachment=342749:navgem_z...lp_us_20.png]
12z
[attachment=342751:navgem_z...lp_us_21.png]

Jma seems to think so


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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 11 2018, 02:02 AM
Post #42




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Euro has about 60 here between both events, crazy run..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
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Undertakerson
post Jan 11 2018, 03:25 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 9 2018, 05:13 AM) *
I don't get why more people are not talking about this date span. It really hasn't gone away and in fact, to me, is trending much better looking. unsure.gif

We know the cold is coming back and the western ridge is looking really nice on most operational and ensemble guidance I've seen the past few days.

Another plan comes together?

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 11 2018, 03:28 AM


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Undertakerson
post Jan 11 2018, 04:57 AM
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(looks at calendar, looks at thread title lead time - takes off shoes and socks to count between 11 and 18 - looks at title dates again- scratches head some more, goes huh?)


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NorEaster07
post Jan 11 2018, 06:17 AM
Post #45




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I'm liking this time frame. Yesterday's Euro 12z was a near miss. Clipper then coastal blowing up bit too late.

Recent 00z run has a positive trough tilted towards Texas on Tuesday next week with the clipper coming down over the Great Lakes as the Upper and Mid Level low closes off and a storm develops off Virginia and heads north. Lots of energy/moisture.

2 Loops..

850mb Temps and Winds



500mb Vort

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stretchct
post Jan 11 2018, 08:09 AM
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MJ with the win!
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

4-2 6"
3-25 .5"
3-21 3.5"
3-13. 11
3-7 17"
3-2 .5"
2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
74.5" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 11 2018, 08:24 AM
Post #47




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Euro looks really good for most of the viewing area. Much of PA, NY, WCT, WMA, SVT, SNH, SWME gettig 6-12"+


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

4-2 6"
3-25 .5"
3-21 3.5"
3-13. 11
3-7 17"
3-2 .5"
2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
74.5" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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The Day After To...
post Jan 11 2018, 08:26 AM
Post #48




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 11 2018, 08:24 AM) *
Euro looks really good for most of the viewing area. Much of PA, NY, WCT, WMA, SVT, SNH, SWME gettig 6-12"+

Won't see me complaining...I want to see more model support before I buy in though.

This post has been edited by The Day After Tommorow: Jan 11 2018, 08:26 AM


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


FF/EMT

WX HOBBYIST

Rest Easy, FF Jules EOW 12.18.2017
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stretchct
post Jan 11 2018, 08:26 AM
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NAVGEM looks good - really only the ICON and CMC are not on board with something in our region.

Attached Image


GFS Snow - 24hrs for southern areas, earlier was north. 0z was similar
Attached Image


This post has been edited by stretchct: Jan 11 2018, 08:32 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

4-2 6"
3-25 .5"
3-21 3.5"
3-13. 11
3-7 17"
3-2 .5"
2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
74.5" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 11 2018, 08:34 AM
Post #50




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I take back what I said about the Icon - TT didn't go out far enough.

Attached Image



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

4-2 6"
3-25 .5"
3-21 3.5"
3-13. 11
3-7 17"
3-2 .5"
2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
74.5" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 11 2018, 08:38 AM
Post #51




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And cause I can.... the ukie. A little less committal, but upper levels look fantastic!
Attached Image


Attached Image


This post has been edited by stretchct: Jan 11 2018, 08:39 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

4-2 6"
3-25 .5"
3-21 3.5"
3-13. 11
3-7 17"
3-2 .5"
2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
74.5" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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LUCC
post Jan 11 2018, 09:29 AM
Post #52




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Looks like possibly another 3-6" event for the NJ area.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"
2/17 - 3.5"
3/2 - 0.5"
3/7 - 10.25" (thanks PARD)
3/13 - 2.25"
3/21 - 11.5"

Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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LUCC
post Jan 11 2018, 11:28 AM
Post #53




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From: Robbinsville, NJ
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Inverted trough through CNJ....


This post has been edited by LUCC: Jan 11 2018, 11:29 AM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"
2/17 - 3.5"
3/2 - 0.5"
3/7 - 10.25" (thanks PARD)
3/13 - 2.25"
3/21 - 11.5"

Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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avsguy01
post Jan 11 2018, 11:36 AM
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Just looks juicier overall this run for a wider area. I'm sure this one is gonna have to be watched. Confidence continues to grow for a light to moderate event for Mid-Atlantic with a heavier axis towards New England.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 12:05 PM
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Member No.: 16,816





Well time to move on to this event. Seems like a marginal event for I95 corridor in terms of temps, Hudson Valley through New England could do really well with this. Of course the details will continue evolving.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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avsguy01
post Jan 11 2018, 12:07 PM
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Here is an example of the 12z CMC showing marginal temps.



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stretchct
post Jan 11 2018, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:07 PM) *
Here is an example of the 12z CMC showing marginal temps.


Euro showed mixing from the hudson river east as well. Temporary, but enough to cut snow totals from a foot to 4" or so.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

4-2 6"
3-25 .5"
3-21 3.5"
3-13. 11
3-7 17"
3-2 .5"
2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
74.5" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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LUCC
post Jan 11 2018, 12:19 PM
Post #58




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CMC/Euro rolleyes.gif

Need to see what the NAM and JMA say.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"
2/17 - 3.5"
3/2 - 0.5"
3/7 - 10.25" (thanks PARD)
3/13 - 2.25"
3/21 - 11.5"

Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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stretchct
post Jan 11 2018, 12:22 PM
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Member No.: 16,470





GEFS members and precip favorable. Temps aren't an issue until you get along the coast for a brief while and south of PHL.
Attached Image

Some of the members to the NE had already moved through the area.

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

4-2 6"
3-25 .5"
3-21 3.5"
3-13. 11
3-7 17"
3-2 .5"
2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
74.5" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 11 2018, 12:30 PM
Post #60




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From: Westchester County, NY
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:07 PM) *
Here is an example of the 12z CMC showing marginal temps.



Yea CMC has a bit of a warm bias but I also can see the coastal plain having precip type issues with this especially if it doesn't bomb out.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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